BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

16

Cats Return To Rupp From Christmas Break
For Final Push Toward the Real Season

December 27, 2008 is just 2 days before Christmas, and tonight the Cats return to Rupp Arena for another cupcake, but the Cats must now approach this cupcake as well as Central Michigan on Monday night as final tune-ups for the real season. Reason? After Central Michigan on December 29, 2008, the Cats do not play again until they travel to Louisville on January 4, 2009 to take on the Cardinals, and then the 16 game SEC regular season schedule immediately follows. It is now time to take this program up yet another level.

Twelve games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle with turnovers, and to a lesser extent, rebounding. However, the team has now completed six consecutive games in which they averaged turnovers on “only” 18% of its possessions as compared to the unbelievable 27% turnover rate posted during the first 6 games of the season. It remains to be seen whether this improvement is real or only apparent, and the answers won't really become obvious until January 13, after the Cats have traveled to Louisville and Tennessee, and entertain Vanderbilt at Rupp.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC enters the game with an overall record of 4-8 against D1 opposition. In those seven D1 games, FLORIDA ATLANTIC has averaged 78.0 possessions per game while allowing opponents 78.0 possessions. FLORIDA ATLANTIC has averaged 65.0 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.833 ppp. On the defensive end, FLORIDA ATLANTIC has allowed 70.6 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.904 ppp. FLORIDA ATLANTIC averages about 13.3 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 11.6 turnovers per game. On the glass, FLORIDA ATLANTIC secures about 33.3% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just over 32.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 87.8 possessions per game and their opponents average 88.2 possessions. The Cats average about 81.3 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.927 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.738 ppp. The Cats average 19.7 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16.7 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 36.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.3% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a harder schedule over the first 12 games than FLORIDA ATLANTIC, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 83possessions and a Kentucky win by 33 points, 87-54 over FLORIDA ATLANTIC. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 1.048 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.651 for a game NGE of 0.40 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Prior to the game, Tom Leach and Mike Pratt reported that Coach Gillispie would return Harris into the starting lineup for the first time since his head on collision with Porter a few weeks ago. In addition, when the starting lineup was announced, A J Stewart gets his first ever start as a Wildcat, taking Stevenson's spot to start this game. The starting five are: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Stewart, and Harris.

The Cats and FAU begin the game shooting the ball relatively well, and the teams trade baskets to a 10-10 tie at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats outscored FAU 7-3 to ease out to an early 4 point lead, 17-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the first 8 minutes, the pace is slow, about 70-75 possessions for the game. The Cats have only 1 turnover in the early going. In the third segment, FAU responded with a 10-2 run of its own to convert a 4 point deficit into a four point lead of their own, 23-19, but the Cats responded to draw even, 23-23 at the under 8 TV timeout and will have the possession.

In the fourth segment, the teams again played even, 32-32 at the under 4 TV timeout. These teams again finished the first half on even terms, 37-37 at the half.

The pace of the first half was 72 possessions for the Cats and 68 possessions for FLORIDA ATLANTIC. In first half, UK had 36 possessions while FLORIDA ATLANTIC had 34. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 5-3, and won the second chance points 10-4. The Cats won the total rebound battle 17-12. The Cats grabbed 35.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds while they limited FAU to only 20.0% offensive rebounding rate. Each team committed 4 turnovers in the first half of play.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC had an offensive efficiency of 1.065 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 1.333 ppp for its 3 second chance possession. UK had 0.871 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 7-9 [77.8%], and FAU made 5-6 free throws [83.3%]. The Cats shot the ball about average throughout the first half making 14-28 [50%] overall, and a weak 2-10 [20.0%] from outside the arc. For FLORIDA ATLANTIC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very good, 13-23 [56.5%], and FLORIDA ATLANTIC shot the ball adequately from long range, hitting 2-6 [33.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while FLORIDA ATLANTIC needs 38 points. KENTUCKY scored its 75 th point on a free throw by Meeks with 0:12 to play in the game and the Cats leading 76-69 for the last score of the game.

Second Half Summary:

The second half started with both teams shooting well, but when the Cats missed a couple of 3 point attempts, FAU made them pay, and eased out to a 3 point lead, 49-46 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, FAU extended their lead to 5 points, 51-46, but the Cats then ran off 6 unanswered points to regain the lead, 52-51, prompting a FAU timeout with 13:00 to play in the game. The Cats shooting from inside the arc has been outstanding, 73.1%, but outside the arc has abandoned this team today, 2-14, 14.3%.

Out of the timeout, the Cats extended this run to 10-0 to lead by 5 points, 56-51 at the under 12 TV timeout and 10:55 to play in the game. In the shortened third segment of the game, the Cats outscored FAU 8-5 to extend the lead out to 8 points, 64-56 at the under 8 TV timeout and 7 minutes to play in the game. During the fourth segment, FAU chipped away at the Cat lead slightly to 7 points, 68-61 at the under 4 TV timeout. In the second half, the Cats have outscored FAU 31-24 on 28 possessions. Kentucky held on for a very difficult 76-69 victory.

UK scored its 76 points in a total of 71 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.070 ppp. FLORIDA ATLANTIC scored its 69 points on a total of 70 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.986 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 34-25, and the Cats won on the offensive glass 8-5. Kentucky converted their 8-second chance into 16 points while FLORIDA ATLANTIC converted its 5-second chances into a strong 7 points.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC had an offensive efficiency of 0.958 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.400 ppp for its 5-second chance possessions. UK had 0.952 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 8-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA ATLANTIC was able to get an even weaker 16.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 10.1 possessions and forced FLORIDA ATLANTIC into one turnover in every 7.0 possessions.

UK was strong from the free throw line in this game, making 12-16 [75.0%]. FLORIDA ATLANTIC made 7-10 [70.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-57 overall [54.4%] despite an anemic 2-18 from long range [11.1%]. For FLORIDA ATLANTIC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 19-39 [48.7%] but FLORIDA ATLANTIC shot the ball very well from long range hitting 8-17 [47.1%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 33 point Cat win [87-54], and the outcome was quite different, 75-69. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.048 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.070 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.651 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.986 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “C” and the defensive “grade” is “E” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/13_Grades_FLATL.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Seventeen

Go Back
To Installment Fifteen

Copyright 2008
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved