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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Take On Central Michigan In Last Tune Up
For The Real Season

Following the Christmas break, the Cats returned to work in earnest as their "real season" will begin after the first of the new year when the Cats travel to Louisville to take on highly ranked Louisville, and then the 16 game SEC schedule. Between the Christmas break and the onset of this season, the Cats had two turne up games scheduled. The first tune up was Saturday afternoon, and the Cats dispatched Florida Atlantic 76-69 on a day that no Cat could strike from three point range while the Owls found their stroke early, and used it often to remain close throughout the game over the heavily favored Cats. Tonight the Cats get their last opportunity to fine tune their game prior to their annual grudge match with the Louisville Cardinals.

The Cats have won 10 of their last 11 outings since their historic 0-2 start to this season. This winning string has included several cupcake opponents for sure, but it has also included games against Kansas State [Win], West Virginia [Win], and Miami FL [Loss]. Tonight's opponent falls more clearly in the deserts line than the red meat line, but nevertheless, Central Michigan provides the last opportunity for this team to demonstrate to themselves that they are among the limited number of superior teams in the land by playing their game from tip to horn, despite any interim margins that may appear along the way.

Thirteen games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle with turnovers, and to a lesser extent, rebounding. However, the team has now completed seven consecutive games in which they averaged turnovers on “only” 17.4% of its possessions as compared to the unbelievable 27% turnover rate posted during the first 6 games of the season. In Saturday's game, the Cats established their season best in the turnover category, only committing 7 on 71 possessions. It remains to be seen whether this improvement is real or only apparent, and the answers won't really become obvious until January 13, after the Cats have traveled to Louisville and Tennessee, and entertain Vanderbilt at Rupp.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN enters the game with an overall record of 3-8 against D1 opposition. In those eleven D1 games, CENTRAL MICHIGAN has averaged 82.0 possessions per game while allowing opponents 81.5 possessions. CENTRAL MICHIGAN has averaged 64.8 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.790 ppp. On the defensive end, CENTRAL MICHIGAN has allowed 70.9 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.871 ppp. CENTRAL MICHIGAN averages about 16.1 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16.4 turnovers per game. On the glass, CENTRAL MICHIGAN secures about 33.6% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just over 37% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 86.5 possessions per game and their opponents average 86.9 possessions. The Cats average about 80.9 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.935 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.753 ppp. The Cats average 18.7 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 29.5% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a harder schedule over the first 13 games than CENTRAL MICHIGAN, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 84 possessions and a Kentucky win by 31 points, 86-55 over CENTRAL MICHIGAN. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 1.024 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.655 for a game NGE of 0.37 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Prior to the game, Coach Gillispie indicated that Harris had not been able to practice, and is not likely for tonight. It will be interesting to see if Coach Gillispie returns to Stevenson over Stewart, or perhaps yet another player for that spot, and who will be starting for Harris. The starting five are: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Liggins, and Stevenson. Liggins gets his first start of his college career in game 14 of his freshman year.

The Cats open with three turnovers and 1 for 6 shooting in the opening segment of this game, falling behind to CMU by 5 points early in the game, 7-2 at the under 16 TV timeout. Liggins' first start did not get him much playing time, as he has been replaced by Miller, and Meeks by Slone in the opening segment. The second segment was not much better from the Cats' perspective, as CMU extended its lead to as many as 9 point, 15-6, but Slone hit a 3 pointer right before the under 12 TV timeout to pull the Cats back to 6 point, 15-9. Out of the timeout, Slone sank a 15 footer to cut the lead to 4 points, and on the next CMU possession, Slone's defense almost created another CMU turnover, forcing CMU to take a timeout of their own with 11:10 to play in the half. During the remainder of the segment, the Cats pulled back into the lead, 19-17 before CMU tied the score again at 19-19 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace of the first 12 minutes is in the low 70s range, much more to CMU's liking.

In the fourth segment, the Cats continued their 13-4 run and scored 17 more points on only 7 possessions, outscoring CMU 17-2 and finally forced another CMU timeout at 4:36 with the score 36-21 Cats, which was also the score at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats finish the half by out scoring CMU 6-2 over the last 3:35 to take a 42-23 lead into the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 74 possessions for the Cats and 76 possessions for CENTRAL MICHIGAN. In first half, UK had 37 possessions while CENTRAL MICHIGAN had 38. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 4-6, and lost the second chance points 2-4. The Cats won the total rebound battle 18-16. The Cats grabbed 30.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds while they allowed CMU to grab 33.3% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 6 turnovers in the first half of play while CMU committed 7 turnovers.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN had an offensive efficiency of 0.594 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 1.212 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 9-10 [90.0%], and CMU made 4-4 free throws [100.0%]. The Cats shot the ball about average throughout the first half making 14-27 [51.9%] overall, and a strong 5-10 [50.0%] from outside the arc. For CENTRAL MICHIGAN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 5-21 [23.8%], and CENTRAL MICHIGAN shot the ball well from long range, hitting 3-8 [37.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while CENTRAL MICHIGAN needs 52 points. KENTUCKY scored its 75 th point on a basket by Galloway with 2:34 to play in the game and the Cats leading 76-44, and the teams played out the final 2:34 and the Cats secured their 11 th win of the year, and 10 th win over the last 12 games 84-52.

Second Half Summary:

Slone got the second half start with Meeks taking to the bench, but Meeks returned to action after about 30 seconds of play. The Cats then proceed to score the first 9 points of the second half to extend their lead to 28 points, 51-23, forcing yet another CMU timeout with 17:16 to play. After the timeout, the Cats exchanged a basket for three free throws to take a 27 point lead at the under 16 TV timeout. In this initial segment of the second half, the Cats picked up the pace, with 9 possessions for CMU and 11 possessions for the Cats.

In the second segment, the cats scoring pace slowed to 7 points on 8 possessions and CMU scored 8 on 7 possessions, as the Cats maintain a 26 point lead, 60-34 at the under 12 TV timeout. At the under 8 TV timeout the Cats lead is 24 points, 63-39. In the fourth segment of the second half, the Cats outscored CMU 9-5 to extend their lead back to 28 points, 72-44, at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats win by 32 points, 84-52.

UK scored its 84 points in a total of 78 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.077 ppp. CENTRAL MICHIGAN scored its 52 points on a total of 80 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.650 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 37-34, but the Cats lost on the offensive glass 8-13. Kentucky converted their 8-second chance into 8 points while CENTRAL MICHIGAN converted its 13-second chances into a strong 10 points.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN had an offensive efficiency of 0.627 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.769 ppp for its 13-second chance possessions. UK had 1.086 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 8-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 27.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CENTRAL MICHIGAN was able to get 31.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 6.0 possessions and forced CENTRAL MICHIGAN into one turnover in every 5.3 possessions.

UK was below their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 14-19[73.7%]. CENTRAL MICHIGAN made 11-14 [78.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-56 overall [53.6%] including a strong 10-22 from long range [45.5%]. For CENTRAL MICHIGAN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 13-40 [32.5%] but CENTRAL MICHIGAN shot the ball poorly from long range hitting 5-18 [27.8%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 31 point Cat win [86-55], and the outcome was slightly different, 84-52. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.024 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.077 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.655 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.650 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “C” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/14_Grades_CENMI.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Sunday afternoon, January 4, 2009, the Cats will play at Louisville.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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