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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats & Cards - 2009

All the preliminaries are out of the way. Each team is poised for their real seasons, as they both will enter their respective conference play following their annual grudge match for this season. This year, the never-ending feud resumes in the Cardinals' nest called Freedom Hall. Yes, it is the same Freedom Hall that has served the Cats so well over the years, and at least once each year provides the Cats with a vicarious home floor. However, Cat Fans should make no mistake that on Sunday, January 4, 2009, that court and the crowd that fills that arena will not be friends this time out.

Both teams enter this game with three non-conference losses. The Cats have lost at home to VMI, Miami FL, and at North Carolina. Since the UNC loss in game 2 of the season, the Cats have won 11 of 12 games, and the last six in a row. The Cards have lost at neutral court match ups with Western Kentucky and Minnesota, and at home to UNLV in their last outing. In contrast to the Cats, the Cards started by winning 7 of their first 8 games, but have now lost 2 of their last 3. The teams have played one common opponent thus far this season, Lamar. Both teams gained home court wins over Lamar, the Cats by 42 points [103-61], and the Cards by 22 points [78-56].

This game is rarely defined by the numbers, because the rivalry involved in this game runs so deep within both programs that they both will bring their games, and leave it all on the floor. Use the link to read about the history of the rivalry, and accept the following irrelevant statistical analysis because once they toss it up, these numbers will not matter, if they ever it.

Fourteen games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle with turnovers, and to a lesser extent, rebounding. However, the team has now completed eight consecutive games in which they averaged turnovers on “only” 17.4% of its possessions as compared to the unbelievable 27% turnover rate posted during the first 6 games of the season. In last Monday's game, the Cats continued to protect their possessions from turnovers; however, it remains to be seen whether this improvement is real or only apparent, and the answers won't really become obvious until January 13, after the Cats have traveled to Louisville and Tennessee, and entertain Vanderbilt at Rupp. The first major basketball exam on turnovers occurs on Sunday. Will the Cats ace the test, get an "average" grade, or fail the exam?

LOUISVILLE enters the game with an overall record of 8-3 against D1 opposition. In those eleven D1 games, LOUISVILLE has averaged 86.1 possessions per game while allowing opponents 80.4 possessions. LOUISVILLE has averaged 76.2 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.884 ppp. On the defensive end, LOUISVILLE has allowed 59.0 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.734 ppp. LOUISVILLE averages about 13.1 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, LOUISVILLE secures about 36.2% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just 25.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 86.0 possessions per game and their opponents average 86.4 possessions. The Cats average about 81.1 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.944 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 64.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.746 ppp. The Cats average 18.3 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16.1 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 29.6% of their misses.

The Cardinals have played a harder schedule over the first 11 games than Kentucky through 14 games, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 83 possessions for the Cats and 86 possessions for UL, with a LOUISVILLE win by 8 points, 74-66. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 0.795 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.860 for a game NGE of –0.065 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

There has been much debate among the Big Blue faithful about who should or should not be starting for this team. Generally, people agreed that Coach Gillispie needs to end all experimentation with the lineup by the Louisville game. Well, that is today, and the starting five are: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Galloway, and Stevenson.

The Cats open the game just the way we saw earlier in the season, and in a word: Turnovers. Count them, 6 in the first 10 possessions, producing a deficit of 13-6, 7 points at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace is very fast, about 95 possessions for the game, and each team converted its lone offensive rebound into 2 points. In the second segment, the turnovers continued, as the Cats added 3 more to their total [9], but 6 for 8 shooting, including back to back three pointers by Meeks cut the Cards early lead to 1 point, 17-16. Louisville added a three of their own right before the under 12 TV timeout taking a lead of 4 points, 20-16 to the bench. The early pace continues at about the 90 possession level.

In the third segment, the Cats cut their turnover parade down to only 1, raising their alarming early total to 10, and the teams played on even terms during the segment, leaving the Cats 4 points down, 28-24, at the under 8 TV timeout. However, out of the timeout, the Cats committed number 11, and missed three shots allowing Louisville to sprint back out by 8 points, 34-26, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 4:32 to play in the first half. The timeout was effective with its overall results, as the Cats finished with a 9-4 mini-run despite 3 more of those mounting turnovers, trailing 3 at the half, 38-35.

The pace of the first half was 84 possessions for the Cats and 74 possessions for LOUISVILLE. In first half, UK had 42 possessions while LOUISVILLE had 37. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 8-4, and lost the second chance points 11-5. The Cats won the total rebound battle 19-9. The Cats grabbed 35.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds while they allowed UL to grab 29.6% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed a whopping 14 turnovers in the first half of play while UL committed 5 turnovers.

LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 1.250 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.706 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 1.375 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 8-9 [88.9%], and UL made 9-10 free throws [90.0%]. The Cats shot the ball about average throughout the first half making 12-24 [50.0%] overall, and a good 3-7 [42.9%] from outside the arc. For LOUISVILLE their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a fair 7-17 [41.2%], and LOUISVILLE shot the ball well from long range, hitting 5-10 [50.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 40 points, while LOUISVILLE needs 37 points. Neither team scored 75 points in this game, but KENTUCKY would have needed 75 points to win this game, and fell 4 points short

Second Half Summary:

Harris replaces Galloway in the starting lineup for the second half. The Cats came out for the second half and continued the run that ended the first half, out scoring Louisville 8-4 to take their first lead of the day, 43-42. However, the lead was very short lived as the Cats picked up a technical foul following the go ahead basket, and then Louisville hit back to back 3 pointers to race back to a 6 point lead, 49-43 at the under 16 TV timeout, being outscored 8-11 in the segment. In the second segment, Louisville continued its run, to a 12-0 advantage before the Cats scored again. At the under 12 TV timeout the Cats trail by 9 points, 57-48 and have possession out of the timeout. In the third segment, the Cats stabilized their slide from the lead, but still dropped 2 points against the lead, which now stands at 11 points, 64-53 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, the Cat defense limited Louisville to only 2 points, while scoring 8 of their own to cut the lead to 5 points, 66-61 at the under 4 TV timeout and the ball will belong to the Cats when play resumes. The pace of this game is much slower than indicated by the teams' record leading into this game, and will be mid to upper 70s today instead of low to mid 80s.

The Cats get three scoring chances on their first trip out of the timeout, and Porter hit a big 3 pointer to cut the lead to 2 points, 66-64, and following a Louisville turnover, the Cats will have another opportunity to tie the score or take the lead again. However, the Cats squandered yet another possession with a forced 3 pointer by Meeks. The Cats never quit fighting, and tied the score at 71-71 with only 0:22 to play. However, Louisville ran the clock down to 3 seconds for a final shot to win the game, and Sosa hit a 25 foot three pointer with Porter playing him very soft, for the final score, 74-71 Louisville.

UK scored its 71 points in a total of 80 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.888 ppp. LOUISVILLE scored its 74 points on a total of 73 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.014 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 32-22, and the Cats won on the offensive glass 14-7. Kentucky converted their 14-second chance into 23 points while LOUISVILLE converted its 7-second chances into only 5 points.

LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 1.045 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.714 ppp for its 7-second chance possessions. UK had 0.727 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.643 ppp on its 14-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 48.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE was able to get 28.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 3.8 possessions and forced LOUISVILLE into one turnover in every 4.9 possessions.

UK was above their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 19-22[86.4%]. LOUISVILLE made 19-23 [82.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-48 overall [46.9%] including a good 6-16 from long range [37.5%]. For LOUISVILLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 11-27 [40.7%] but LOUISVILLE shot the lights out from long range, including the game winner at the buzzer, 11-20 [55.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 8 point Louisville win [74-66], and the outcome was slightly different, 74-71. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.795 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.888 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.860 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.014 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “D-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/15_Grades_@ul.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, January 10, 2009, the Cats will host Vanderbilt at Rupp Arena in the first game of the 2009 SEC season..

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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