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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Start 2009 SEC Season Against Vanderbilt at Rupp

Some folks say that there are three basketball seasons each year, non-conference, conference, and post season. Well, the first season is now in the books, and the Cats begin their second season on Saturday afternoon when Vanderbilt comes into Rupp Arena for what has become a bit of SEC recent tradition, with these teams pairing off to kick off the SEC season.

The Cats finished the non-conference portion of their schedule 11-4, with losses to VMI, UNC, Miami FL, and Louisville in their last outing last Sunday. Included in the 11 victories are fine wins over a powerful West Virginia and a good Kansas State teams in November on neutral courts. Even still, the Big Blue Nation is grumbling about a perceived lack of adequate progress for the program in Coach Gillispie's second season at the helm. Let's examine the record for this season's non-conference performance and compare it the non-conference performances by the Cats over the last decade. The data that provides the basis for this comparison can be viewed at:

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_SeasonPages/bbf4ukanalysisNONCONFERENCE.htm

The 4 losses are less than last year's 7 non-conference losses, but is still above the average of 3.5 losses per year to non-conference opponents since since the 1999 season, and the 11 wins is certainly better than last year's 6 wins, and is equal to the 10 year average. In addition to the W-L record, here are some of the internal numbers:

This team averaged 80.5 ppg, which is the highest scoring average since 2003 [81.3 ppg] and above the 10 year average [78.4 ppg].
The pace averaged 85.4 possessions per game, which is the fastest pace by a Kentucky team since 2005 [86.2] and about 1 possession per game under the decade average.
The offensive efficiency at the end of non-conference play is 0.942 points per possession, the highest offensive efficiency of the decade, and substantially above the decade average [0.909 ppp].
The defensive efficiency at the end of non-conference play is 0.764 ppp, which is the lowest defensive efficiency since 2005 [0.697 ppp] and better than the decade average [0.779 ppp].
The NGE at the end of non-conference play is 0.178 ppp, the highest NGE since 2005 [0.199 ppp] and substantially better than the decade average [0.130 ppp]

Free Throw shooting and field goal shooting percentages have been very strong, and the turnover rate has been very poor. These factors are included in the overall offensive efficiency measures noted above.

History teaches us that the team's pace, scoring, and efficiencies will probably slip during the SEC season. In my opinion, this is likely to be the case again during 2009. First, such slippage is not universally true, because there have been exceptions to this rule, particularly the 2003 season in which the Cats put together an unprecedented perfect 19-0 SEC season after a lack luster non-conference record and performance measures. Can 2009 be a similar repeat of that 2003 anomaly, or will 2009's SEC record reflect the historical trends? That is why they play the games.

First up for SEC play is Vanderbilt.

Kentucky enters SEC play averaging 18.5 turnovers per game, 21.6% of its total possessions for the season. The turnover rate of late had been falling against weaker competition, but last Sunday against Louisville, the Cats committed an unacceptably high 21 turnovers again, maintaining the doubt about this team's ability to handle the ball against legitimate high D1 defenses. The Cats have two opportunities to demonstrate their ability to improve in this area of play against two quality opponents over the next week when they travel to Tennessee, and entertain Vanderbilt at Rupp.

VANDERBILT enters the game with an overall record of 11-3 against D1 opposition. In those fourteen D1 games, VANDERBILT has averaged 78.5 possessions per game while allowing opponents 79.1 possessions. VANDERBILT has averaged 71.1 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp. On the defensive end, VANDERBILT has allowed 58.4 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.739 ppp. VANDERBILT averages about 14.6 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 13.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, VANDERBILT secures about 33.6% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just 29.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 85.6 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.6 possessions. The Cats average about 80.5 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.940 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.761 ppp. The Cats average 18.5 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16.0 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 29.5% of their misses.

The Cats have played a harder schedule over the first 15 games than Vanderbilt through 14 games, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 82 possessions for the Cats and 82 possessions for VANDERBILT, with a Kentucky win by 8 points, 73-65. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp for a game NGE of 0.10 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 70 points.

First Half Summary:

The starting five are: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats open slow again, and fall behind 8-4 in the first few minutes. The Cats caught up at 8-8 but a three pointer after two offensive rebounds sent Vandy back on top 11-8. Vandy then extended their run with a pair of free throws and another three pointer, their 4 th in 4 attempts to extend their lead to 8 points, 16-8 prompting a Kentucky timeout with about 13 minutes to play in the half. The Cats stopped the run at 8 points with a Patterson basket, but a Patterson foul will send Vandy to the line for 2 shots after the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace is very slow, about 65 to 70 possession over the first 8 minutes of this game.

Vandy extended that lead to 19-10, but the Cats came alive with a 9-1 run of their own, forcing Vandy into an unscheduled timeout with 8:44 to play, and their lead cut to 1 point, 20-19. The Vandy timeout was effective, and Vandy hit a huge three pointer, and following a Kentucky miss, play stopped due to a goal tending call on the Cats on the follow up basket, taking the game into the under 8 TV timeout with the score 23-19, and possession belonging to Vandy. Out of the timeout, Vandy extended their lead to 6 points, 25-19, and after several scoreless trips by each team, Harrellson make a three from the top of the circle to cut the Vandy lead to 3 points, 25-22 at the under 4 TV timeout. Pace has increased slightly to the upper 70s range. In the final 3 minutes of the first half, a Harris 3 pointer, and a desperation shot by Porter at the end of the shot clock propelled the Cats to a 4 point halftime lead, 31-27.

The pace of the first half was 76 possessions and the Cats and Commodores each had 36 possessions, 32 first chance and 6 second chance. Kentucky and Vanderbilt battled to a stand off on the boards, 18-18, and each team got 6 offensive rebounds. The Cats used their 6 second chance opportunities to score 6 second chance points, and Vanderbilt “only” got 5 second chance points. The Cats grabbed 35.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds, which is their season average, while they allowed VANDY to grab 33.3% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed a respectable 6 turnovers in the first half of play while VANDY committed 7 turnovers.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.686 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 0.833 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.816 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 2-2 [100.0%], and VANDY made 6-9 free throws [75.0%]. The Cats shot the ball below their average throughout the first half making 13-31 [41.9%] overall, and a fair 3-9 [33.3%] from outside the arc. For VANDERBILT their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a pitiful 3-14 [21.4%], and VANDERBILT shot the ball well from long range, hitting 5-13 [38.5%]; however, after a 4-4 start from long range, Vandy only hit 1 of their next 9 attempts.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 61 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 30 points, while VANDERBILT needs 34 points. Kentucky scored its 61 st points on a three pointer by Meeks with 5:00 to play in the game and the Cats leading 62-43, and the teams played out the final 5 minutes as the Cats secured their first victory of the SEC season over Vanderbilt 70-60.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats extend their new found lead to 6 points, 33-27, at the beginning of the half, but they could only manage one more point, on a Patterson free throw, for the rest of the starting segment of the second half. Vandy trimmed that 6 point lead to 3 points, 34-31, at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats outscore Vandy 6-0 to build their largest lead of the day, 40-31, forcing a Vandy timeout with about 14 minutes to play in the game. After the timeout, the scoring pace continued for the Cats, and Vandy stopped the run. The Cats took their largest lead of the day, 10 points, 45-35 into the under 12 TV timeout with Meeks waiting to take 2 free throws when play resumes.

After the timeout, Meeks converted both free throws, as did Miller, as did Meeks, and that onslaught of free throws on a day when they have come at a premium, the Cats extend their lead to 18 points, 53-35, forcing yet another Vandy timeout with 10:22 to play. The Cats extend the lead to a full 20 points, 55-35 before Vandy stops the run with a basket of their own. However, the Cats reestablished the lead at 20 points, 57-37 at the under 8 TV timeout.

With 8 minutes to play, the Cats have an offensive efficiency of 0.966 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.597 ppp. This is a huge performance for this team today with 8 minutes to play. Vandy outscores the Cats 6-5 in the fourth segment of the second half to cut the lead from 20 to 19 points, 62-43 at the under 4 TV timeout. However, in the final 3:47, the Cats forgot what type of play gained them the 20 point lead, and allowed Vandy to claw their way back into the game, cutting it to 6 points, 64-58 with about 1 ½ minutes to play. However, the Cats stopped the comeback attempt and closed the game, 70-60.

UK scored its 70 points in a total of 76 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.921 ppp. VANDERBILT scored its 60 points on a total of 81 possessions for a defensive efficiency of .741 ppp.

Vandy won the total rebounding battle, 35-34, and the Commodores won on the offensive glass 14-10. Kentucky converted their 10-second chance into 8 points while VANDERBILT converted its 14-second chances into 11 points.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.731 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.786 ppp for its 14-second chance possessions. UK had 0.939 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below average 32.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to get a very strong 36.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 6.3 possessions and forced VANDERBILT into one turnover in every 5.4 possessions.

UK was above their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 16-19[84.2%]. VANDERBILT made 17-19 [89.5%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-55 overall [43.6%] including a poor 6-19 from long range [31.6%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 11-32 [34.4%] but VANDERBILT shot poorly from long range, 7-25 [28.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 8 point Kentucky win [73-65], and the outcome was slightly different, 70-60. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.921 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.741 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “B-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/16_Grades_Vandy.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Tuesday night, January 13, 2009, the Cats will travel to Tennessee for the Cats' first SEC road game of the 2009 season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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