07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Take 1-0 Record To Tennessee
Winner Will Have Early Edge To Win SEC

Last year, the Cats traveled to Knoxville, Tennessee near the end of a season without Patrick Patterson, and limping to the SEC finish line with fading hopes of another NCAA post season appearance. With Patterson sidelined, most observers gave the Cats little to no chance of leaving Knoxville victorious. In fact, those same observers said that without Patterson, the Cats would not win another game last season, and would not be invited to the Big Dance. Well, the experts were wrong on most counts then because not only did the Cats give the SEC Champion Vols the fight of their basketball lives in Knoxville that day, the Cats finished the season with back to back wins at Georgia and at home against the Gators, and the Cats did manage to play in the big dance.

This year, the same observers give the Cats little chance to leave Knoxville tonight with a victory. The Vegas opening line was Tennessee -7.5 points, but by 10 am, gameday, the line has shrunk to Tennessee -7 points. Pomeroy's system indicates Tennessee -4 points. Tennessee has been nationally ranked all season, at least until this week, and the Cats have been unranked all year, and receive no votes in the polls, despite their 12-4 record, their win over ranked West Virginia on a neutral court, and their last second loss at Louisville.

In recent years, Tennessee's trade mark was their ability to light it up from outside the arc, but Tennessee no longer has the most significant shooters that established that reputation. This year, Tennessee has not shot the ball well at all from long range. Perhaps Tennessee will light it up from long range tonight, but if they do, they will not be the same team that has already played 14 games. Tennessee has only made 30.8% of their 3 point attempts this year, which ranks #278 out of 330 D1 teams ranked by Pomeroy. They also have not defended the 3 point shot very well, giving up 35.2%, which ranks #230.

The Cats' 3 point defense has been the one area of defense that is lacking, but interior defense has been outstanding, allowing opponent to make only 38.5%, which ranks #3 out of 330 D1 teams, and offensively, the Cats' interior game has been equal to their interior defense, averaging 57.9%, which is 4th in the nation.

If the Vols hit the three tonight, as did Louisville last week against us, then the Cats will be in trouble, but if the Cats can force the game into the paint on both ends, the Cats will win tonight. Tennessee has a strong interior offense, averaging 53.2% of their interior shots, #28 in country, but their interior defense is suspect, because they have allowed 48.8% interior shooting by their opponents, #198 out of 330.

In my opinion, for the Cats to win, PPat, Stevenson, Harris, Miller, and Harrellson must combine to have a solid interior game at both ends of the court.

The biggest aspect of Tennessee's interior success in the few games I have seen them play has been scoring on second chance possessions, following interior and long range misses. Their offensive rebounding has been their strongest suit this season, where they grab almost 40% of their own misses, and limit opponents to only 28% of misses. These rebounding rates are better than the Cats at both ends.

This is where the interior wars tonight will be decided.

Tennessee and Kentucky bring 1-0 SEC records to this important game, and the winner, especially so if the Cats can hand the Vols a home court loss, will emerge as the early favorite to win the SEC regular season title in 2009.

Prior to the Vanderbilt game, we examined the turnover situation, and warned that the Cats would need to limit their turnovers in the Vandy and Tennessee games to have any realistic chance of opening the SEC 2-0 this year. They got the job done on Saturday against Vandy at Rupp, and tonight we will learn more about this team's ability to limit turnovers against a quality opponent on the road.

TENNESSEE enters the game with an overall record of 10-4 against D1 opposition. The TENNESSEE losses have come to Gonzaga twice, by 9 points on a neutral court, and by 10 in Knoxville, and on the road at Temple by 16 points and at Kansas by 7 points. TENNESSEE has impressive wins over Georgetown by 12 on a neutral court, and over Marquette by 12.

In those fourteen D1 games, TENNESSEE has averaged 93.2 possessions per game while allowing opponents 86.6 possessions. TENNESSEE has averaged 84.3 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.905 ppp. On the defensive end, TENNESSEE has allowed 75.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.868 ppp. TENNESSEE averages about 15.0 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 15.6 turnovers per game. On the glass, TENNESSEE secures about 39.8% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just 27.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 85.1 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.3 possessions. The Cats average about 79.8 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.938 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 64.8 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.760 ppp. The Cats average 18.1 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.0% of their misses.

The Cats have played a weaker schedule over the first 16 games than TENNESSEE through 14 games, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 86 possessions for the Cats and 89 possessions for TENNESSEE, with a Kentucky win by 1 point, 77-76. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 0.888 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.850 ppp for a game NGE of 0.04 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 77 points.

First Half Summary:

The starting five are Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats begin the game well in almost every respect. They hit 3 of their first 5 shots, and 8 points on their first 6 possessions. They committed no turnovers. However, Tennessee has owned the boards early, getting 4 offensive rebounds and 6 second chance points allowing Tennessee to play to a 8-8 tie at the under 16 TV timeout of the first half. In the second segment, Tennessee took a 5 point lead, 18-13, but a Porter 3 pointer pulled the Cats back to within 2 point, 20-18, at the under 12 TV timeout and about 10 ½ minutes to play in the first half. The early pace is very slow, about 60 to 65 possessions for the Cats, but the 5-1 early offensive rebounding advantage, and 8-2 second chance point advantage has provided Tennessee the lead, and a 85 possession pace.

In the third segment, a shortened one, Meeks hit a pair of three pointers to give Kentucky a 4 point lead, 24-20, forcing a Tennessee timeout with about 8:25 to play in the first half. The Cats have hit 5 of 7 three pointers for this lead. Out of the timeout, the Cats scored two more baskets to extend the lead to 8 points, 28-20 before a three pointer by Tennessee stopped the Cat run at 12 straight points. The Cats responded by extending the lead to a game high 9 points, 36-27 at the under 4 TV timeout. Through the first 16 minutes, the Cats remain on fire, 13-22 overall and 6-9 from long range, while Tennessee is shooting only 41%, and 4-13 from long range.

However, the Cats could not stand their prosperity, and 1-3 shooting and 4 turnovers in the final segment of the half allowed Tennessee to cut an 11 point lead to only 4 points, 41-37, at the half.

The pace of the first half was 72 possessions and the Cats and 82 possessions for Tennessee. Kentucky had 31 first chance and 5 second chances while Tennessee had 32 first chance and 9 second chance possessions. Kentucky battled and won the battle of the boards, 17-15, but Tennessee won the offensive glass 9-5. However, Kentucky used their second chance possessions more effectively, as each team scored 10 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a very strong 45.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed TENNESSEE to grab a very high 42.9% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed a respectable 8 turnovers in the first half, but 4 of those turnovers occurred in the last 4 minutes of the half. TENNESSEE committed only 6 turnovers.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.844 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 1.111 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 1.000 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 2.000 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 7-9 [77.8%], and TENNESSEE made 4-8 free throws [60.0%]. The Cats shot the ball below their average throughout the first half making 14-24 [58.3%] overall, and an incredible 6-9 [66.7%] from outside the arc. For TENNESSEE their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 9-17 [52.8%], and TENNESSEE shot the ball well from long range, hitting 5-14 [35.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 81 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while TENNESSEE needs 36 points. Kentucky scored its 81 st point on free throws by Patterson with 3:00 to play in the game and the Cats leading 73-70, and the teams played out the final 3:00 as the Cats secured their first SEC road victory of the season over TENNESSEE 90-72.

Second Half Summary:

At the beginning of the second half, Tennessee cut the 4 point lead in half, 43-41, but the Cats then ran off the next 10 points to establish their biggest lead of the game, 12 points, 53-41 before Tennessee stopped the run just prior to the under 16 TV timeout, with the Cats holding to a 10 point lead, 53-43. In the second segment, the Cats extended the lead to 14 points before Tennessee chipped at the lead, getting it down to 11 points, and possession, 58-47 at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, the Cats eased the lead up to 16 points, but Tennessee again cut that lead back to 11 points, 68-57 at the under 8 TV timeout. Tennessee continued to cut into the lead, trimming it to 7 points, but a major comeback was not in the cards for the Big Orange tonight, as Meeks took over the game, and scored 9 straight points, a total of 52 for the game, to extend the lead up to 16 points, 80-66 at the under 4 TV timeout with about 3 ½ minutes to play in the game. The Cats outscored the Vols 10-6 over the final segment to close the game with an 18 point win, 90-72.

UK scored its 90 points in a total of 77 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.169 ppp. TENNESSEE scored its 72 points on a total of 86 possessions for a defensive efficiency of .837 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 39-32, and the Volunteers won on the offensive glass 19-11. Kentucky converted their 11-second chance into 14 points while TENNESSEE converted its 19-second chances into 18 points.

TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.806 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.947 ppp for its 19-second chance possessions. UK had 1.152 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.273 ppp on its 11-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an outstanding 45.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to get a very strong 40.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.1 possessions and forced TENNESSEE into one turnover in every 10.8 possessions.

UK was above their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 18-20[90.0%] after missing 2 of their first 4 for the night, they hit 16 in a row for the rest of the game. TENNESSEE made 16-26 [61.5%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-53 overall [56.6%] including an off the charts 12-19 from long range [63.2%] which propelled Jody Meeks into the UK record books again, by scoring 54 points, eclipsing a long standing record 53 points by Dan Issel.. For TENNESSEE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a good 19-43 [34.4%] but TENNESSEE shot poorly from long range, 6-23 [26.1%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 1 point Kentucky win [77-76], and the outcome was slightly different, 90-72. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.884 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.169 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.854 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.837 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “A” and the defensive “grade” is “C” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/17_Grades_@UT.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Sunday afternoon, January 18, 2009, the Cats will travel to Georgia for the Cats' second SEC road game of the 2009 season. The Cats will carry a 2-0 conference record into the game..

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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