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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

21
Cats Take 2-0 Record To Georgia
Must Win To Keep Pace with Mississippi State and Florida

Last year, the Cats played Georgia three times, and twice the Cats left those games beat up, and a loser. In the game at Athens, Ramel Bradley suffered a serious head injury in a collision under the Kentucky basket, and in the SEC Tournament, the Cats fell to the Dawgs in overtime. On Sunday, the Cats should have paybacks on their minds.

The Cats bring a perfect 2-0 SEC, 13-4 overall record into this SEC road game. Georgia brings an overall 9-8 and SEC 0-2 record into this game. Kentucky must secure its third straight SEC win, the second consecutive win on the road, to keep pace with Mississippi State and Florida, each of whom won their third SEC game on Saturday. If the Cats make it a trio of undefeated teams, these three teams will have separated themselves from the rest of the SEC pack.

Prior to the Vanderbilt game, we examined the turnover situation, and warned that the Cats would need to limit their turnovers in the Vandy and Tennessee games to have any realistic chance of opening the SEC 2-0 this year. They got the job done on in both games, and on Sunday they will put their new found turnover rate on the line against Georgia, another SEC opponent on the road.

GEORGIA enters the game with an overall record of 9-8 against D1 opposition. Four of Georgia's losses losses have come to Missouri by 7 points at home, Georgia Tech by 5 points on the road, Tennessee by 9 points at home, and by 10 points at Vanderbilt. Georgia's best win thus far was by 1 point over Virginia Tech in Athens.

In those seventeen D1 games, GEORGIA has averaged 84.0 possessions per game while allowing opponents 84.9 possessions. GEORGIA has averaged 67.2 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp. On the defensive end, GEORGIA has allowed 64.8 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.763 ppp. GEORGIA averages about 17.1 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16.5 turnovers per game. On the glass, GEORGIA secures about 34.5% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 32.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.6 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.4 possessions. The Cats average about 80.4 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.950 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.764 ppp. The Cats average 17.9 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.5 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 36.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.7% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

The starting five are Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats begin the game with a 7 point run, led by Meeks' 5 points before Georgia broke the ice and made their only basket on 7 attempts during the opening segment of the game, Cats lead 7-2. In the second segment, the Cats committed a bunch of turnovers, 4 in their first 6 possessions, but with 13:27 to play in the half, after the 4 th turnover, Coach Gilllispie replaced Porter with Liggins, and the Cats immediately extended their lead to 9 points, 13-4, prompting a Georgia timeout at the under 12 TV timeout. In the first 8 minutes, the Cats have hit 50% of their shots, and all of their free throws in building this early lead. However, the dawgs, have on made 2 of their 14 attempts, and are 0-4 from three point range. The early pace is mid 70s possessions for the game.

After the Cats extended the lead to 12 points, 16-4, Georgia decided to fight back instead of the roll over option, and cut the lead back to 9 points, 18-9. The Cats scored 3 more in the segment, to lead by 11 points, 20-9 at the under 8 TV timeout. Over the last 8 minutes of the half, the Cats broke the game win open, out scoring Georgia 18-10, to take a 19 point lead to the locker room, 38-19.

The pace of the first half was 78 possessions and the Cats and 80 possessions for Georgia. Kentucky had 34 first chance and 5 second chances while Georgia had 35 first chance and 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky battled and won the battle of the boards, 22-14, but Georgia won the offensive glass 6-5. However, Kentucky used their second chance possessions more effectively. Kentucky converted its 5 second chance possessions into 6 second chance points while Georgia converted its 6 second chances to 5 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 38.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed GEORGIA to grab a low 26.1% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed a respectable 8 turnovers in the first half, and Georgia committed 8 turnovers.

GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0..400 ppp on its 35 first half possessions and 0.833 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.941 ppp on its 34 first half possessions and 1.200 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 10-12 [83.3%], and GEORGIA made 2-5 free throws [40.0%]. The Cats shot the ball at about their average throughout the first half making 13-25 [52.0%] overall, and a fair 2-6 [33.3%] from outside the arc. For GEORGIA their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak 7-21 [33.3%], and GEORGIA shot the ball even more poorly from long range, hitting 1-10 [10.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 71 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while GEORGIA needs 52 points. Neither team reached the Magic Number tonight, as the Cats fell 3 points short at the end of the game, in which Kentucky won 68-45.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats started the second half about the same way as they played the first half, and outscored the Dawgs 8-3 in the opening segment of the half. However, the Cats only hit 2 of their 6 shots. The Cats' poor second half shooting continued through the second segment, as the Cats only hit 1 of 5 shots, allowing Georgia to cut a one time 25 point Kentucky lead [46-21] to 18 points [48-30] at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace of the game has quickened slightly into the low to mid 80s range. The Cats are now shooting only 41.7% from the floor, and only 3-10 from long range. However, the Cats' fine free throw shooting continues, now 15-17 in this game [88.2%].

After the TV timeout, the Cats' offense came back to life, scoring 8 points on 5 possessions during the abbreviated segment of the game, to take the lead back to 26 points before Georgia scored a basket to trim that lead back to 24 points, 56-32, at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment of the second half, the Cats outscored the Dawgs 8-4, to stretch the lead to 28 points, 64-36, prompting a Georgia timeout with 4:09 to play in the game. The Cats have committed 17 turnovers in this game, one for each 4.1 possessions, which represents a reversion to past bad habits. The Cats finish out the game, handing Georgia a 23 point defeat on their home floor, 68-45, as the Cats improve their perfect SEC record to 3-0, including two precious road wins early in this season.

UK scored its 68 points in a total of 77 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.883 ppp. GEORGIA scored its 45 points on a total of 85 possessions for a defensive efficiency of .529 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 41-32, and the Dawgs won on the offensive glass 11-7. Kentucky converted their 7-second chance into 8 points while GEORGIA converted its 11-second chances into 9 points.

GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.486 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.818 ppp for its 11-second chance possessions. UK had 0.857 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp on its 7-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an weak 25.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to get an even weaker 24.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.0 possessions and forced GEORGIA into one turnover in every 4.5 possessions.

UK was below their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 20-26[76.90%]. GEORGIA made 4-11 [36.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-46 overall [47.8%] including an average 4-11 from long range [36.4%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 16-45 [35.6%] but GEORGIA shot even more poorly from long range, 3-16 [18.8%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 11 point Kentucky win [75-64], and the outcome was slightly different, 68-45. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.882 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.883 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.753 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.529 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “C” and the defensive “grade” is “A” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/18_Grades_@UGA.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Wednesday night, January 21, 2009, the Cats will host Auburn at Rupp. The Cats will carry a 3-0 conference record into the game..

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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