BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

22
Cats Return To Rupp With Perfect 3-0 SEC Record
and Early Advantage For Regular Season SEC Championship

Last year, the Cats opened their SEC season with Vanderbilt at Rupp followed by two road games, to Mississippi State and Florida. This year, the Cats opened with Vanderbilt at Rupp followed b two road games at Tennessee and Georgia. Last year, when the Cats returned to Rupp, their next opponent was highly ranked Tennessee, and the Cats were 1-2, having lost two tough, but close road games. This year, the Cats return to Rupp triumphantly with a 3-0 record after back to back blow out road wins.

What a difference a year makes.

Last year, the Big Blue Nation took great hope into the Tennessee game because the team had given valiant efforts in those two loses, effort that had been clearly lacking during the non-conference season. This year, the Big Blue Nation is secure in its knowledge that the Cats are now THE team to beat if any other SEC teams still entertain serious designs of their own to win the SEC this season.

Two other SEC teams have also started their SEC season with perfect 3-0 records. The same two teams that the Cats lost to so early on the road last season. However, only the Cats have collected 2 early season SEC road wins. Just as the schedulers dealt the Cats a tough row to hoe early last season with those back to back road games against State and the Gators, this year, the schedulers have turned the tables on them. Both must travel and play the Cats at Rupp in early February, but by then, the Cats could have the regular season SEC championship nearly secured.

What a difference a year makes.

Next up for the Cats will be the Auburn Tigers at Rupp Arena on Wednesday night, and then the Cats are back on the SEC road for another pair of games, this time at Alabama and Mississippi. That will be 4 of the first 6 conference games on the road, and if these next 3 games go as anticipated, the Cats will lock up 4 SEC road wins, and a perfect 6-0 start before taking a three game homestand during which the State Bulldogs and Gators come calling.

What a difference a year makes.

AUBURN enters the game with an overall record of 9-8 against D1 opposition. Four of Georgia's losses losses have come to Missouri by 7 points at home, AUBURN Tech by 5 points on the road, Tennessee by 9 points at home, and by 10 points at Vanderbilt. AUBURN's best win thus far was by 1 point over Virginia Tech in Athens.

In those seventeen D1 games, AUBURN has averaged 84.0 possessions per game while allowing opponents 84.9 possessions. AUBURN has averaged 67.2 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp. On the defensive end, AUBURN has allowed 64.8 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.763 ppp. AUBURN averages about 17.1 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16.5 turnovers per game. On the glass, AUBURN secures about 34.5% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 32.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.6 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.4 possessions. The Cats average about 80.4 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.950 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.764 ppp. The Cats average 17.9 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.5 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 36.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.7% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

The starting five are Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats begin with strong shooting, including 2-2 by Meeks from long range, but 4 turnovers in the first 12 possessions allowed Auburn to match the Cats' scoring, 12-12 at the under 16 TV timeout. Auburn will have possession when play resumes. The early pace has been frantic, about 100 to 110 possession pace for a game. In the second segment of the game, Auburn took its first lead, 15-14 on a three pointer, but Perry Stevenson got a put back basket to give the Cats a slim 1 point lead, 16-15 at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, the teams traded baskets, and lead changes ruled the 4 minutes, with the Cats ending the segment with their slim 1 point lead, 24-23, and the ball at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace remains very fast, about mid 90s. The Cats have already committed 10 turnovers. In the fourth segment, Auburn surged to their biggest lead of the night, 3 points, 31-28 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:27 to play in the half. The Cats have now made 12 turnovers in the first half, to Auburn's 4 turnovers. Over the last 2 ½ minutes, the Cats and Tigers exchanged the lead three more times, ten times for the half, and the Cats ended the half with a basket to take a 1 point lead to the locker room, 34-33.

The pace of the first half was 84 possessions and the Cats and 84 possessions for AUBURN. Kentucky had 37 first chance and 5 second chances while AUBURN had 37 first chance and 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky battled and won the battle of the boards, 23-13, but the teams battled to even terms on the offensive glass, 5-5. However, Kentucky used their second chance possessions more effectively. Kentucky converted its 5 second chance possessions into 8 second chance points while AUBURN converted its 5 second chances to 6 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 38.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed AUBURN to grab a low 21.7% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an embarrassing 13 turnovers in the first half, and AUBURN committed 5 turnovers.

AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 0..786 ppp on its 37 first half possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 0.703 ppp on its 37 first half possessions and 1.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 11-14 [78.6%], and AUBURN made 1-2 free throws [50.0%]. The Cats shot the ball below their average throughout the first half making 10-22 [45.5%] overall, and a good 3-7 [42.9%] from outside the arc. For AUBURN their field goal shooting from outside the arc was an average 4-12 [33.3%], and AUBURN shot the ball a little better from 2 point range, hitting 10-24 [41.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 68th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while AUBURN needs 34 points. Kentucky scored their 68 th points on free throws by Meeks with 0:29 to play in the game and the Cats leading 69-59. The teams finished the final 0:29, and Kentucky remained undefeated in the SEC with a 73-64 win over Auburn.

Second Half Summary:

Auburn opened play in the second half with back to back turnovers, and after each turnover, Jodie Meeks made them pay with a pair of three pointers, to move the Cats' lead out to 7 points, 40-33, prompting a quick Auburn timeout with 19:00 to go in the game. Out of the timeout, Auburn committed their third straight turnover, and the Cats again converted, this time a 2 point basket by Stevenson, to extend the lead to 9 points, 42-33, but Auburn stopped the Kentucky run at 10 points, going back to the end of the first half, and trimmed the lead back to 4 points, 42-38. A Patterson put back basket extended the lead to 6 at the under 16 TV timeout, 44-38, with 14:48 to play in the game. In the abbreviated second segment, Auburn used a pair of three pointers to cut the Kentucky lead back to just 2 points, 46-44 at the under 12 TV timeout, and Auburn will have the ball when play resumes. The Cats have now committed 17 turnovers, 4 in the first 8 minutes of the second half.

Three more Kentucky turnovers [20 total] allowed Auburn to regain the lead, 48-46, with about 10 minutes to play. However, an old fashioned 3 point play by Patterson allowed the Cats to regain the lead, 53-51 at the under 8 TV timeout, and Jodie Meeks will have three free throws when play resumes. Meeks converted all three, and the Cats then scored 4 more points to take a 60-51 lead at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats once trailed 48-51, and have now scored the last 12 points to match their largest lead of the game, which they once held at 40-31 early in this half of play. The Cats finish out the game and secure their 4 th straight SEC win, 73-64.

UK scored its 73 points in a total of 77 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.948 ppp. AUBURN scored its 64 points on a total of 80 possessions for a defensive efficiency of .0.800 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 42-22, and the Tigers won on the offensive glass 6-7. Kentucky converted their 6-second chance into 10 points while AUBURN converted its 7-second chances into 6 points.

AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 0.795 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp for its 7-second chance possessions. UK had 0.887 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 1.667 ppp on its 6-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an weak 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN was able to get an even weaker 16.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 3.5 possessions and forced AUBURN into one turnover in every 8.0 possessions.

UK was above their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 26-32 [81.3%]. AUBURN made 2-6 [33.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 21-44 overall [52.5%] including an above average 5-13 from long range [38.5%]. For AUBURN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 16-41 [39.0%] but AUBURN shot well from long range, 10-26 [38.5%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 13 point Kentucky win [76-63], and the outcome was slightly different, 73-64. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.916 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.948 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.741 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.800 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/19_Grades_AUB.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, January 24, 2009, the Cats will play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Cats will carry a 4-0 conference record into the game..

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Twenty-Three

Go Back
To Installment Twenty-One

Copyright 2008
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved