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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

23
Cats Return to the SEC Road For Another Pair
First Up This Trip: Alabama

The mid-week SEC games allowed Kentucky's rise to the top of the SEC to continue. The Cats returned home for a single game against ALABAMA, and protected their perfect SEC start by successfully defending their home court. AND, the only other previously unbeated SEC teams, Florida and Mississippi State, both lost road games, falling from the undefeated ranks. The Cats now return to the SEC road for another pair of away games, and their 3rd and 4th road games in the first 6 on the schedule.

Next up, the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa.

This week, Alabama's most important player, Steele, announced that his playing career at Alabama has ended due to injuries that has hampered his career last year and this year. Alabama's loss of Steele is significant, but that loss was not sufficient to prevent Alabama from defeating Ole Miss on Wednesday night, also in Tuscaloosa. Alabama has started the SEC season with two home wins and two road losses. In addition to Ole Miss, Alabama also beat LSU [with Steele].

ALABAMA enters the game with an overall record of 10-6 against D1 opposition. They also have wins against Chaminade and Quincy. ALABAMA has lost home games to Mercer and Texas A&M, as well as SEC road losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. ALABAMA has averaged 83.8 possessions per game while allowing opponents 84.0 possessions. ALABAMA has averaged 72.7 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.867 ppp. On the defensive end, ALABAMA has allowed 66.4 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.791 ppp. ALABAMA averages about 13.6 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 14.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, ALABAMA secures about 38.5% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 35.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 84.2 possessions per game and their opponents average 85.4 possessions. The Cats average about 79.7 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.947 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 64.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.751 ppp. The Cats average 17.9 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 15.7 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.9% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

The starting five are Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Harris, and Stevenson.

The Cats open with two quick turnovers, and 50% shooting, while Alabama hits 4 of their first 7 shots, including two offensive rebounds of their three misses to sprint out to the early 3 point lead, 8-5 at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace is about 75 possessions. In the second segment, Alabama extended their lead to 5 points, 10-5 before Jodie Meeks took over at the offensive end, and propelled the Cats into their first lead of the day, 12-11, at the under 12 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, Alabama regained the lead on a three pointer at the end of the shot clock.. The only other scoring in the third segment was a Stevenson free throw, and the Cats trail by 1 point, 13-14, at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace of the game has settled into a low to mid 80s range, and both teams are shooting the ball very poorly, under 30% in each case. The Cats have committed more turnovers, have fewer offensive rebounds, and fewer second chance points, yet trail by only 1 point.

In the fourth segment, it was more of the same, poor shooting, turnovers, and offensive rebounds for Alabama, and Alabama continues to hold on to their one point lead, 18-17, at the under 4 TV timeout. Alabama extended their lead in the final segment, aided by a three pointer as time expired, to take a 6 point lead to the locker room, 25-19.

The pace of the first half was 74 possessions and the Cats and 82 possessions for ALABAMA. Kentucky had 32 first chance and 5 second chances while ALABAMA had 33 first chance and 8 second chance possessions. Kentucky and Alabama battled to even terms, 21-21 for total rebounds, but Alabama won the offensive glass, 8-5, and Alabama converted their second chances into 5 points as compared to only 3 by the Cats. The Cats grabbed a weak 27.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed ALABAMA to grab a fair 33.3% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 9 turnovers in the first half, and ALABAMA committed 5 turnovers.

ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0..610 ppp on its 41 first half possessions and 0.625 ppp for its 8 second chance possession. UK had 0.514 ppp on its 37 first half possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were 2-4 [50.0%], and ALABAMA made 3-4 free throws [75.0%]. The Cats shot the ball way below their average throughout the first half making 8-26 [30.8%] overall, and a poor 1-7 [14.3%] from outside the arc. For ALABAMA their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a poor 10-34 [29.4%], and ALABAMA shot the ball a little better from 3 point range, hitting 2-6 [33.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 47 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 28 points, while ALABAMA needs 22 points. Kentucky scored their 47 th point on basket by Patterson with 5:30 to play in the game and the Cats leading 47-45 . The teams finished the final 5:30, and Kentucky remained undefeated in the SEC with a 61-51 win over ALABAMA.

Second Half Summary:

When the team started to return to the floor, Ramon Harris collapsed, and the start of the second half was delayed as the Coaches attended to Harris in the locker room, but when play does resume, it is without Harris, or Coach Gillispie on the floor. Miller started for Harris. The Cats scored the first 5 points in the half, to cut the lead to 1 point, but Alabama scored the last 3 points in the opening segment of the half to reestablish their lead at 4 points, 30-26, at the under 16 TV timeout.

In the second segment of the second half, the Cats out scored Alabama 7-2 to retake the lead by 1 point, 33-32. When Alabama was stopped by the Cats' defense on the next possession, Alabama called a timeout to avoid the turnover with 12:36 to play in the game. Patterson picked up 3 quick fouls in this half, and has been on the bench for several minutes already with 4 total fouls. If this team is to win today, it will have to do so largely without Patterson on the floor. Out of the time out, Alabama hit another 3 pointer to regain the lead, but Jodie Meeks tied the score at the other end, and failed to retake the lead by missing his free throw attempt that could have completed the old fashioned three point play. The teams are now tied for the first time today at the under 12 TV timeout at 35-35.

In the third segment, the Cats traded baskets with Alabama, and a Deandre Liggins three pointer, his first in his last 21 attempts, gave the Cats the slimmest of leads, 1 point, 43-42 at the under 8 TV timeout. Patterson remained on the bench the entire segment. Patterson returned to the game with 6:20 to play in the game and the score tied at 45-45. Patterson immediately made a huge impact on the offensive end with two quick baskets to give the Cats their biggest lead, 4 points, 49-45, prompting an Alabama timeout. However, the timeout did not stop the Big Blue surge, and the Cats stretched the lead to 6 points, 51-45 on a pair of Meeks free throws before Alabama stopped the Cat run. The Cats added another pair of free throws by Stevenson, who has posted another double double game, and the Cats lead 53-47 at the under 4 TV timeout.

Patterson fouled out with 1:11 to play and the Cats holding on to a 7 point lead, 55-48. Alabama made one of two, but the Cats could not get the ball back in bounds, and sent Alabama back to the line again. The Cats close out the game and secure their 5 th straight SEC game, and their third SEC road win in three tries this season.

UK scored its 61 points in a total of 84 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.726 ppp. ALABAMA scored its 51 points on a total of 87 possessions for a defensive efficiency of .0.586 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 42-36, and the Crimson Tide won on the offensive glass 14-11. Kentucky converted their 11-second chance into 3 points while ALABAMA converted its 14-second chances into 15 points.

ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.493 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.071 ppp for its 14-second chance possessions. UK had 0.795 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and only 0.273 ppp on its 11-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below average 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA was able to get an even weaker 31.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 3.7 possessions and forced ALABAMA into one turnover in every 4.6 possessions.

UK was below their season average from the free throw line in this game, making 19-26 [73.1%]. ALABAMA made 13-21 [61.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 19-49 overall [38.8%] including a below average 4-13 from long range [30.8%]. For ALABAMA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a poor 13-46 [28.3%] but ALABAMA shot well from long range, 4-12 [33.3%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 3 point Kentucky win [72-69], and the outcome was different, 61-51. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.857 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.726 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.821 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.586 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “D-” and the defensive “grade” is “A” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/20_Grades_@ALA.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Wednesday night, January 28, 2009, the Cats will play Mississippi in Oxford. The Cats will carry a 5-0 conference record into the game and will be trying to record their 4 th SEC road win in the first 6 games when they take the floor in Oxford.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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