07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

15
Cats Begin To Consume Holiday Cupcakes
Mississippi Valley State Is At The Top of the desserts Menu

Nearly everyone agrees that the Kentucky Wildcat's first 9 games of the 2010-11 season have been one of the most difficult, if not the most difficult early season schedule in the land. They have managed their way through the appetizers and the main entrees, and now it is time to take aim on the dessert tray. Just as most appreciate the difficulty of the first nine games, most will also understand that Mississippi Valley State is the weakest team on the Cats' 2010-11 schedule, and will be their first selection from the desserts Tray.

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE has played nine games, and all of them have been on the road. Of the nine games, only two have been played on a Neutral Court, and their victory over #313 Georgia Southern by 11 on a neutral court is MVS's only win so far this season. Make no mistake, MVS has not shied away from top flight competition in their journeys. They have played at #8 BYU, #37 St. Mary's, #52 Butler, #66 Indiana, and at three SEC venues, #95 Georgia, #57 Mississippi, and #77 Arkansas.

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE has played these games at an average pace of about 75 possessions, averaging 61.0 ppg and allowing 80.3 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 0.815 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 1.056 ppp. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE's turnover rate has been 24.6% while they have forced turnovers at a 20.2% rate. On the Boards, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 29.2% and 63.2% respectively.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first six opponents produced 69 possessions, and a score of 77.9 to 64.4 ppg for efficiencies of 1.125ppp and 0.922 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. UK's turnover rate is 15.6% but UK only forced turnovers at a 17.3% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 36.8% and 72.2% at the offensive and defensive ends.

Kentucky's current Pomeroy SOS value is 0.8224 while MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE's is 0.7398.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 72 to 73 possessions with the Cats winning for the eighth time in ten starts this season by 42 points, 92-50. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.260 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.694 ppp.

Game Summary:

For the tenth game in a row, Coach Calipari will start Knight, Jones, Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson. There is little doubt that Lamb will be the first player off the bench, followed by Vargas. After those top seven players, Coach Calipari has said that Poole has moved up on the depth chart and will be getting Hood's minutes as the season moves forward.

UK and MVS both open shooting the ball well, and running up and down the court, and MVS led for the first 3 minutes until a Liggins 3 pointer allowed the Cats to take the lead, 10-7. However, the lead was short lived as MVS responded with a 3 pointer of their own, to tie the score at 10-10 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment the Cats ease out to another brief lead, 12-10, but an inside bucket, a UK turnover, and a MVS 3 pointer propelled MVS back into the lead, 15-12, prompting Calipari to call a timeout. Just prior to the timeout, the Cats tried to use a zone defense, but it allowed the 3 pointer after some good ball movement. Out of the timeout, the Cats returned to the man defense, and scored the next 6 points to regain the lead, 18-15 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:19 to play in the first half of the game.

In the third segment, the Cats extended their lead to 5 points, 25-20 at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:49 to play. In the fourth segment, the Cats moved into their first double digit lead of the game, 33-22 at the under 4 TV timeout. In the final segment, the Cats outscored MVS by 11-2 to extend the halftime lead to 20 points, 44-24.

UK scored its 44 points in a total of 35 possessions for the half, and MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE scored its 24 points on a total of 34possessions. MVS won the rebounding battle, 21-20, and MVSs won the offensive glass 11-6. MVS used their offensive rebounding advantage to generate a 1 point advantage with the second chance points, 5-4. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.528 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.556 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 1.111 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 6 second chance possession. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE was able to convert an only 34.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit 9 of its 11 free throws in the first half [81.8%]. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE also was also effective from the line, making 2-2 [100.0%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 15-31 overall [48.4%] and 5-13 from long range [38.5%]. For MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 5-22 [22.7%] and from long range, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE University hit 4-13 [30.8%].

The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for every 6.0 possessions. The Cats forced 9 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE turnovers, one for every 4.0 possessions.

Second Half:

The Cats open the second half rather slowly, only scoring on 2 of 4 free throws in the opening 2 minutes of play. The sloppy play continues and MVS trims a point off the half time lead to 48-29 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, MVS misses its first 2 shots, and Miller makes a floater from 10 feet and a 3 pointer on a fast break to extend the lead to 24 points, 53-29, prompting a MVS timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats stretch their lead to 26 points, 59-33 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats revert to the sloppy play that they opened the second half with, and MVS trimmed the 26 point lead to 22 points, 64-42, but the Cats responded with 7 straight points to extend their lead to 29 points, 71-42, at the under 8 TV timeout. With 6:26 to play, Coach Calipari was ejected from the game with a pair of technical fouls.

In the 4 th segment, the Cats played even terms, taking a 26 point lead at the under 4 TV timeout with 3 minutes to play in the game, 81-55. The final score was 85-60.

Analysis:

UK scored its 85 points in a total of 77 possessions for the game, and MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE scored its 60 points on a total of 79 possessions.

MVS won the boards, with a rebounding edge 41-37, and MVS won the battle of the offensive glass 16-9. MVS won the second chance points battle 10-7. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.633 ppp on its 79 first chance possessions and 0.625 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 1.013 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 0.778 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 26.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE was able to convert 36.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 24-43 [75.0%]. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE made 8-10 [80.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 27-59 overall [45.8%] and 7-18 from long range [38.9%]. For MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-44[31.8%] and from long range, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE hit 8-23 [34.8%].

The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 6.4 possessions. The Cats forced 23 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE turnovers, one for every 3.4 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 42 point UK win, 92-50 at a pace of 73 possessions for UK and 72 possessions for MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE. The final score was 85 (92) to 60 (50) at a pace of 77 possessions for the Cats and 79 possessions for MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.104 (D-) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.760 ppp (D+).

Next Game On Schedule: Next Wednesday, December 22 against Winthrop at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Cats Continue Their dessert Feast with Wintrhop

Go Back
Cats Handle Indiana by 19, Move to 7-2