07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

16
Cats Continue The Holiday Desserts With Winthrop

The Cats easily consumed MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE, but in the process Coach Calipari found himself on the receiving end of two technical fouls that sent him from the bench to the locker room during the game. The Cats were not as sharp as they had been in recent games, and “only” defeated MVS by 25 points, 85-60. The second selection from the dessert tray will be Winthrop on Wednesday afternoon before the Cats return home for their Christmas vacations for 3 days.

WINTHROP has played eleven games posting a record of 5-6. WINTHROP'S most impressive wins have been by 7 over #145 Jacksonville at home and by 9 points at #176 Wake Forest. WINTHROP'S most significant loss has been by 3 at #265 Liberty. WINTHROP has also lost to #69 Belmont by 27 on a neutral court, and by 11 at #155 Charlotte.

WINTHROP has played these games at an average pace of about 69 possessions, averaging 64.4 ppg and allowing 66.2 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 0.932 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.952 ppp. WINTHROP's turnover rate has been 19.7% while they have forced turnovers at a 19.5% rate. On the Boards, WINTHROP's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 29.6% and 67.8% respectively.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first six opponents produced 70 possessions, and a score of 78.6 to 64.0 ppg for efficiencies of 1.121ppp and 0.904 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. UK's turnover rate is 15.5% but UK only forced turnovers at a 18.6% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 35.8% and 71.2% at the offensive and defensive ends.

Kentucky's current Pomeroy SOS value is 0.7688 while WINTHROP's is 0.5431

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 70 possessions with the Cats winning for the ninth time in eleven starts this season by 29 points, 83-54. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.186 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.771 ppp.

Game Summary:

For the eleventh game in a row, Coach Calipari will start Knight, Jones, Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson. There is little doubt that Lamb will be the first player off the bench, followed by Vargas. After those top seven players, Coach Calipari has said that Poole has moved up on the depth chart and will be getting Hood's minutes as the season moves forward.

Kentucky opens the game red hot from the floor, and the Cats sprint out to a quick 9 point lead, 15-6 at the under 16 TV timeout which occurred due to a stoppage of play when Brandon Knight went to the floor holding his knee. In the second segment, the Cat continued their red hot shooting as they extended their lead to 18 points, 29-11, at the under 12 TV timeout. About midway through the segment, Knight returned to the bench after having his knee checked in the locker room. In the third segment, for the first time, Winthrop matched Kentucky scoring 4-5, as the Cats' lead eased out to 19 points, 34-15 at the under 8 TV timeout. The early pace of this game is 70 possessions.

In the fourth segment, Winthrop outscored the Cats for the first time 8-7, on 4-4 shooting from inside the arc as the Cats maintained an 18 point lead, 41-23 at the under 4 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, Winthrop scores the next 9 points to trim the Kentucky lead back into single digits, 41-32 prompting a UK timeout with 2:23 to play in the first half. The Cats responded to Coach Calipari's timeout by scoring the last 10 points of the half to reestablish their largest lead of the game, 19 points, 51-32, at the half.

UK scored its 51 points in a total of 37 possessions for the half, and WINTHROP scored its 32 points on a total of 36 possessions. Kentucky won the rebounding battle, 20-15, but WINTHROP won the offensive glass 6-2. WINTHROP used their offensive rebounding advantage to generate a 5 point advantage with the second chance points, 7-2. WINTHROP had an offensive efficiency of 0.694 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 1.324 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possession. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 18.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WINTHROP was able to convert an only 25.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit 5 of its 5 free throws in the first half [100.0%]. WINTHROP did not make a free throw on its only attempt, 0-1 [0.0%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 18-29 overall [62.1%] and 10-14 from long range [71.4%]. For WINTHROP, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 13-32 [40.6%] and from long range, WINTHROP University hit 2-8 [25.0%].

The Cats committed 8 turnovers, one for every 4.6 possessions. The Cats forced 2 WINTHROP turnovers, one for every 18.0 possessions.

Second Half:

The Cats open the second half aggressively taking the ball to the hoop on the drive, expanding their lead to 26 points, 61-35, at the under 16 TV timeout. Winthrop will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes. Out of the timeout, Winthrop missed both free thows, but following two UK misses and a turnover, Winthrop trims the lead back to 22 points, 61-39, prompting another UK timeout with 14:43 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats go directly to Jones for a basket, and Hood makes his first appearance with 14 minutes to play. For the balance of the second segment, the teams traded scores and the Cats continue to lead by 22 points, 66-44 at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, Doron Lamb became only the second freshman at Kentucky to score 30 points in a game; the only other to achieve this was Jamal Mashburn. At the under 8 TV timeout the Cats lead is 26 points, 76-50. In the fourth segment, the Cats extend the lead to 33 points, 85-52 at the under 4 TV timeout. In this segment, Hood gets his second opportunity of the game, and makes the most of it with a powerful offensive rebound that produced second chance points, and a nice assist to Vargas. The Cats finished the job with a 37 point win, 89-52.

Analysis:

UK scored its 89 points in a total of 72 possessions for the game, and WINTHROP scored its 52 points on a total of 70 possessions.

Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 43-36, and WINTHROP won the battle of the offensive glass 12-8. WINTHROP won the second chance points battle 8-5. WINTHROP had an offensive efficiency of 0.629 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 1.167 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 0.625 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 25.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WINTHROP was able to convert 25.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 11-13 [84.6%]. WINTHROP made 5-11 [45.5%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 33-63 overall [52.4%] and 12-22 from long range [54.5%]. For WINTHROP, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 19-56[33.9%] and from long range, WINTHROP hit 3-13 [23.1%].

The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 6.0 possessions. The Cats forced 8 WINTHROP turnovers, one for every 8.8 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 29 point UK win, 83-54 at a pace of 70 possessions for UK and 70 possessions for WINTHROP. The final score was 89 (83) to 52 (54) at a pace of 72 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for WINTHROP. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.236 (B-) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.743 ppp (B-).

Next Game On Schedule: Next Tuesday, December 28 against Coppin State at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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