07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2010-11 Season Analytical Writings

17
Cats Continue The Holiday Desserts With COPPIN STATE

The Cats easily consumed MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE AND WINTHROP prior to the annual Christmas break, and now the Cats return to the rigors of their semester break two-a-day training to consume the third cupcake on the dessert try. Then it is back to the real business of the program with Louisville and the SEC schedule.

COPPIN STATE has played nine games posting a record of 4-5. COPPIN STATE'S most impressive wins have been by 1 over #307 Navy at home and by 2 points at #337 Maryland Baltimore County in overtime at home. COPPIN STATE'S most significant losses have been by 20 at #116 Oklahoma, by 12 at #26 Connecticut, and by 14 at #12 Wisconsin.

COPPIN STATE has played these games at an average pace of about 70 possessions, averaging 66.7 ppg and allowing 71.7 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 0.956 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 1.026 ppp. COPPIN STATE's turnover rate has been 19.1% while they have forced turnovers at a 20.2% rate. On the Boards, COPPIN STATE's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 29.1% and 64.7% respectively.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first six opponents produced 70 possessions, and a score of 79.5 to 62.9 ppg for efficiencies of 1.131ppp and 0.889 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. UK's turnover rate is 15.5% but UK only forced turnovers at a 18.0% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 35.0% and 71.6% at the offensive and defensive ends.

Kentucky's current Pomeroy SOS value is 0.7470 while COPPIN STATE's is 0.4841.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 70 possessions with the Cats winning for the tenth time in twelve starts this season by 36 points, 88-52. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.257 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.743 ppp.

Game Summary:

For the twelfth game in a row, Coach Calipari will start Knight, Jones, Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson. There is little doubt that Lamb will be the first player off the bench, followed by Vargas. After those top seven players, Coach Calipari has said that Poole has moved up on the depth chart and will be getting Hood's minutes as the season moves forward. This week, Coach Calipari teased the fans with a suggestion that he plans to give Jarrod Polson increased playing time.

The Cats open by hitting 5 of their first 10 shots, and grabbed 4 offensive rebounds from their 4 misses to race out to a quick 11-2 lead 4 minutes into the game, and prompting a Coppin State timeout with 16:01 to play in the first half. In the second segment, the Cats slow down the pace and the scoring, outscoring Coppin State only 4-2 in the segment to lead by 11 points, 15-4 at the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace is slow, about 65 possessions, and the Cats have scored 15 points on 13 possessions, 1.154 ppp while the Cats have limited CS to only 4 points in 13 possessions, 0.308 ppp. Out of the timeout, Knight made a pair of free throws and a 3 pointer to extend the UK lead to a game high 14 points, 20-6, but 5 quick points by CS trimmed the lead to only 9 points, 20-11, prompting a UK timeout with 10:20 play. The Cats responded with a 3 point play by Liggins and a baseline jumper by Lamb to go back on top by 14 points, 25-11 at the under 8 TV timeout.

The Cats stretched the lead briefly to 16 points, 31-15, but CSU trimmed a point off that lead with 1 of 2 free throws just prior to the under 4 TV timeout with 3:43 to play in the first half. In the final segment, the Cats extend their lead to 21 points, 40-19 at the half.

UK scored its 40 points in a total of 34 possessions for the half, and COPPIN STATE scored its 19 points on a total of 34 possessions. Kentucky won the rebounding battle, 29-14, and the Cats won the offensive glass 9-4. Kentucky used their offensive rebounding advantage to generate a 10 point advantage with the second chance points, 12-2. COPPIN STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.500 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had 0.824 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 9 second chance possession. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 47.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while COPPIN STATE was able to convert an only 16.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit 7 of its 8 free throws in the first half [87.5%]. COPPIN STATE hit 5-6 [83.3%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 15-34 overall [44.1%] and 3-14 from long range [21.4%]. For COPPIN STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 4-15 [26.7%] and from long range, COPPIN STATE University hit 2-16 [12.5%].

The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for every 5.7 possessions. The Cats forced 4 COPPIN STATE turnovers, one for every 8.5 possessions.

Second Half:

The Cats open the second half making their first 4 shots, including their first 2 three pointers to stretch their lead to 27 points, 50-23, prompting a CSU timeout after just 2 minutes of play in the second half. Out of the timeout, each team knocked down a three pointer, as the Cats maintained the 27 point lead, 53-26 at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace was mid 60s, and at haltime, it was a 68 possession pace. The pace continues in the 65 to 70 range with 15 ½ minutes to play.

In the second segment, the Cats extend their lead to a game high 31 points, 66-35 prompting a CSU timeout with 12:23 to play in the game, and at the under 12 TV timeout with 11:53 to play. In the third segment, the Cats continued to expand their lead, now at 34 points, 76-42, at the under 8 TV timeout. At the under 4 TV timeout the score is 85-48. The final score, 91-61.

Analysis:

UK scored its 91 points in a total of 69 possessions for the game, and COPPIN STATE scored its 61 points on a total of 69 possessions.

Kentucky won the boards, with a rebounding edge 43-22, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 11-7. Kentucky won the second chance points battle 15-9. COPPIN STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.754 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.286 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 1.101 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.364 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 42.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while COPPIN STATE was able to convert 17.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 13-16 [81.3%]. COPPIN STATE made 9-13 [69.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 35-61 overall [57.4%] and 8-22 from long range [36.4%]. For COPPIN STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-36[38.9%] and from long range, COPPIN STATE hit 8-25 [32.0%].

The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 5.8 possessions. The Cats forced 9 COPPIN STATE turnovers, one for every 7.7 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 36 point UK win, 88-52 at a pace of 70 possessions for UK and 70 possessions for COPPIN STATE. The final score was 91 (88) to 61 (52) at a pace of 69 possessions for the Cats and 69 possessions for COPPIN STATE. The UK offensive efficiency for the game was 1.319 (B-) and the UK defensive efficiency was 0.884 ppp (D-).

Next Game On Schedule: Next Friday, New Years Eve, December 31 against Louisville at noon.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To History of UK v UL Upated for 2010-11

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