Cats Face Florida In Semis

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2011-12 Season Analytical Writings

36
Cats Survive Ugly Offense To Advance Against Florida

The hallmark of great defensive teams is that the defense will be there, especially when the offense take a day off. On Friday, Kentucky's highly efficient offense was AWOL against LSU, but the defense was rock solid. As a result, the Cats rode the defense to a hard fought 9 point win to advance to the SEC Semifinals where they will face the Florida Gators for the third time this season and the second time in less than a week. Florida earned its way into the Semifinals by skating by a solid Alabama team by 3 points in the second quarterfinal game on Friday.

College basketball is rife with overused sayings, and this game puts some more of them into motion. For example, “it is hard to beat the same team three times in one season.” However, the Cats still enjoy the same advantages over this Gator team that propelled the Cats to those 20 and 9 point victories at Rupp and O'Connell respectively. Those same advantages are the reason the Cats should handle the Gators for the third time on Saturday.

LSU ended their regular season with a 17-13 record, 7-9 in the SEC. In addition, the Tigers lost their last three regular season games at #89 Mississippi by 24, to #54 Tennessee by 5 in OT, and at #149 Auburn by 15 before righting their ship today against #119 Arkansas, a team that LSU split their home-home regular season matchups. In contrast, the Cats bring their 30-1; 16-0 regular season record to this game, and that record includes 22 straight wins since the perfect season wrecking 1 point loss at Indiana.

FLORIDA has played 32 games at an average pace of about 66 possessions, averaging 76.4 ppg and allowing 65.8 ppg. This translates to an offensive efficiency of 1.151 points per possession and a defensive efficiency of 0.990 ppp. Contributing to those efficiencies are FLORIDA's turnover and rebounding rates. FLORIDA's turnover rate has been 16.6% while they have forced turnovers at a 19.9% rate. On the Boards, FLORIDA's offensive and defensive rebounding rates have been 34.1% and 69.5% respectively. FLORIDA's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.651.

As a basis of comparison, UK's performance against its first 31 opponents produced 66 possessions, and a score of 77.2 to 58.3 ppg for efficiencies of 1.159 ppp and 0.875 ppp on the offensive and defensive ends. Contributing to those efficiencies are Kentucky's turnover and rebounding rates. UK's turnover rate is 17.5% and UK has forced turnovers at a 18.2% rate. On the boards, the Cats posted rates of 38.4% and 68.9% at the offensive and defensive ends. Kentucky's schedule strength prior to this game is 0.650.

The NGE analysis indicates a game played at a pace of about 66 possessions for UK and 66 possessions for FLORIDA with the Cats winning their thirty second game in thirty three starts this season by 7 points, 73-66. The analysis projects an offensive efficiency of 1.106 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp.

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari continues to his standard winning combination. Sophomores Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb will start along with the three freshmen Kidd-Gilchrist, Anthony Davis, and Marquis Teague. Darius Miller will be the #6 man with Eloy Vargas, Kyle Wiltjer and Twany Beckham coming off the bench. However, Coach Calipari has not used Vargas or Beckham in recent games, and has played with a 7-player rotation.

Florida takes the opening tip, and drains a 3 pointer on a second chance possession, and after trading baskets, Florida gets a second, second chance basket to move on top by 4 points, 10-4, prompting Coach Calipari to call a timeout with 17:05 to play. Out of the timeout, Davis scores to trim the lead to 2 points, but Florida gets their third second chance basket of the early going, their 7 th second chance point, to go back on top by 4. Terrence Jones answers, and after a rare defensive rebound by Kentucky, Florida fouls Davis stopping play for the under 16 media timeout with the Cats down 2 points, 12-10 and in possession. In the second segment, the Gators hit 5 of their 7 shots, while the Cats only managed 4 of their 7, and 2 of the 5 Florida baskets were 3 pointers, allowing the Gators to extend their early lead to 6 points, 24-18 at the under 12 media timeout, and the Cats in possession.

In the first 8 minutes, the pace is upper 60s, and the Gators have made 10 of their 17 shots, including 4 for 7 shooting from long range. The Cats have made 9 of their 14 shots, but 0-2 from long range. Neither team has shot a free throw, and Kentucky has committed the game's only turnover. In the third segment, the Gators continue their hot shooting, and Miller picks up his second foul with 8:50 to play as the Gators extend their lead to 10 points, 31-21. The Cats answer with a 17 foot jump shot by Davis, and a fast break basket by Teague to trim the Gator lead to 6, 31-25, prompting a Florida timeout with 7:07 to play in the first half.

In the 4 th segment, a 3 pointer by Wiltjer trims the lead to 3 points, 33-30, but Florida answers with 4 straight points of their own, drawing another Kentucky timeout with 5:40 to play in the first half and the Gators on top by 7 points, 37-30. The teams trade baskets over the balance of the segment, and the Gators continue to lead by 7 points, 39-32, and have the ball at the under 4 media timeout. In the final segment, the Cats outscored the Gators 8-0 to take their first lead of the game to the locker room, 40-39. That final flurry was marked by a lock down on the defensive end and back to back three pointers by Lamb and Davis.

UK scored its 40 points in 32 possessions [1.250 points per possession] for the half, and FLORIDA scored its 39 points on a total of 33 possessions [1.182 ppp]. Kentucky controlled the boards in the first half, 16-13 in total rebounds, and the teams each grabbed 4 offensive rebounds and each team used their 4 second chance possessions to score 7 second chance points. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.970 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had 1.031 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an average 30.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert 25.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit 1 for 2 free throws in the first half [50.0%]. FLORIDA was 2-2 [100.0%] for the half. Field goal shooting for UK was 18-31 overall [58.1%] and 3-9 from long range [33.3%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 11-22 [50.0%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 5-11 [45.5%].

The Cats committed 4 turnovers, one for every 8.0 possessions. The Cats forced 3 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 11.0 possessions.

Second Half:

The Gators open the second half with a basket to regain the lead, and after Lamb answers with another 3 pointer to give the Cats their biggest lead, 2 points, Florida outscored the Cats 8-4 over the balance of the segment to maintain a 2 point lead, 49-47, and the ball at the under 16 media timeout with 14:49 to play in the game. In that opening segment, the Cats committed 2 more turnovers, to Florida's one turnover, and Florida grabbed the only offensive rebound of the segment. In the second segment, the Cats draw even with the Gators at 49-49, but the Gators do not allow the Cats a possession with a chance to take the lead, and score the next points, as well as stop the Cats to maintain a 2 point lead, 51-49, at the under 12 media timeout.

Out of the timeout, the Gators hit their 8 th 3 pointer of the game to stretch their lead to 5 points, but the Cats answered with 6 straight to regain the lead, 57-56 with 9:23 to play, prompting a Gator timeout. Out of the timeout, the Gators miss, and Jones makes them pay with the Cats' 5 th 3 pointer of the day, and following a Gator turnover, Jones gets a put back to put the Cats on top by 6 points, 62-56, at the under 8 media timeout, and with 7:35 to play in the game. The Cats continue their run to 14-0, and a 9 point lead, 65-56 before the Gators hit their 9 th 3 pointer to stop the run and trim the lead to 6 points, and following a Kentucky miss, Florida makes a fast break basket to trim the lead to 4 points, 65-61 with 3:28 to play and the Cats in possession. Jones misses, Florida gets the rebound and has possession at the under 4 media timeout with 2:55 to play in the game and the score holding at UK 65, Florida 61.

The Gators trim the lead to 2 points, and after Davis rebounds Teague's missed free throw and scores to push the lead back out to 5 points, the Gators trimmed it back to 2 points with their 10 th 3 pointer of the game. With the score 68-66, Jones is fouled, and makes both to push the lead back to 4 points with 35 seconds to play. The Gators score on a put back, and foul Teague with 14.5 seconds to play. Teague makes both, and after another Gator miss, Lamb makes a pair, which provided a margin to large for Florida's 11 th 3 pointer at the buzzer to overcome. Cats win 74-71 to advance to the Championship game against the winner of the next game, either Mississippi or Vanderbilt.

Analysis:

UK scored its 74 points in 60 possessions [1.233 ppp] for the game, and FLORIDA scored its 71 points on 62 possessions [1.145 ppp].

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, 39-25, AND Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 16-7. Kentucky won the second chance points battle 19-12. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.952 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.714 ppp for its 7-second chance possessions. UK had 0.917 ppp on its 60 first chance possessions and 1.188 ppp on its 16 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 47.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert only 23.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game by making 15-20 [75.0%]. FLORIDA made 2-2 [100.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 27-60 overall [45.0%] and 5-17 from long range [29.4%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a strong 18-38 [47.4%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 11-22 [50.0%].

The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for every 10.0 possessions. The Cats forced 8 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 7.8 possessions.

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 7 point UK win, 73-66 at a pace of 66 possessions for UK and 66 possessions for FLORIDA. The final score was 74 (73) to 71 (66) at a pace of 60 possessions for the Cats and 62 possessions for FLORIDA. The 1.145 ppp (D+).

Next Game On Schedule: March 11, 2012 against Vanderbilt, the winner of the SEC Tournament's semifinal round game against Mississippi in New Orleans.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Cats Play Vandy For Third Time In SEC Championship Game

Go Back
To Cats Survive Poor Offensive Game And Advance; 31-1; 17-0