BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

 

SUMMARY OF PREDICTED v ACTUAL SCORES
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL GAME

FROM 2004 TO PRESENT

TABLE I
RESULTS TO DATE FOR 2012-13

NOTE:  The Table Above Provides All Prediction v Actual Results
For the 2012-13 Season. The Following Tables Provide All Predictions
beginning in November 2004 to Through the 2012 Seasons.

Prediction Methods are Evolving and not all predictions
presented here are based on the same methodology. 

Questions about the Methodology should be directed to
GoBigBlue@BigBlueFans4UK.com

How Have the Predicted Game to Game Margins Compared
With Actual Game to Game Margins?


To a Summary Variances of Predicted and Actual Game Efficiencies
2010 through 2012

The above data is presented in the next series of tables providing more detail in two respects.  First, the tables examine more categories of statistics, and second, the data is sorted based on the following factors, in the order shown below:

    1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
    2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
    3. Home
    4. Away
    5. Neutral Court
    6. Non-Conference
    7. SEC
    8. Pomeroy Top 50
    9. Pomeroy Over 50
    10. Post Season Play
    11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2012
    12. SEC Tournament Gateway
    13. NCAA Tournament

You may link to any of these sorted data pages using the links above, or you can browse them in sequence using the "Continue" buttons at the bottom of each page.

IMPORTANT NOTE: In 2009-10, the Kentucky basketball team's rebounding became so dominant in the first 10 games that the differences created by a varied definition of a possession became substantial, and based on a 10 game comparison of predicted and actual results using the original definition and the Pomeroy definition, I have decided to start using the Pomeroy definition for a possession beginning with the 2009-10 season, and thereafter. However, I have no means to convert the data for all prior seasons to this new definition at this time. Therefore, any attempts to compare pace and efficiency derived values for 2009-10 and later with any prior season's posted values will fail. The differences are:

1. Pace values will be lower, by the number of offensive rebounds.

2. Efficiencies will be higher due to the lower number of total possessions

3. Turnover rates will be higher due to the lower number of possessions.

CHECK OUT THESE OTHER ANALYTICAL WRITINGS

What Is Basketball?

What is a Possession?

Change in Position on Definition of Possessions

What Is Net Game Efficiency?

Why Do "Upsets" Occur?

Do Objective Performance Measures Like NGE
Account For Intangible?

 

Go Back

TABLE III
RESULTS TO DATE FOR 2010-11

TABLE IV
RESULTS TO DATE FOR 2009-10

TABLE V
RESULTS TO DATE FOR 2008-09

 

TABLE VI
RESULTS TO DATE FOR 2007-08
LAST UPDATE, MARCH 20, 2008

Total # of Games Predicted: 31
Total # of Games Predicted Right Winner: 22
Percentage of Predictions with Right Winner: 71.0%
Predicted
Scores
Predicted
Actual
Score
Actual
Point Differentials
Kentucky
Opponents
Margin
Kentucky
Opponents
Margin
Kentucky
Opponents
Line
Points
Points
Points
Points
(Predicted - Actual)
Averages
73.0
65.5
7.6
68.5
65.6
2.9
4.5
-0.2
4.7
2006-07
Maximum
87
78
47
92.001
93
48.001
25
27
40
Season
Minimum
65.0
40.0
-13.0
51.0
35.0
-41.0
-13.0
-28.0
-33.0
Std Dev
6.1
9.1
14.5
9.1
14.5
17.7
9.8
13.5
16.1
Percentage: Predicted to Actual:
1.1
1.0
Date
Kentucky
Opponent
Predicted
Scores
Predicted
Actual
Score
Actual
Point Differentials
9.0
yymmdd
Kentucky
Opponents
Margin
Kentucky
Opponents
Margin
Kentucky
Opponent
Line
0.764706
Points
Points
Points
Points
(Predicted - Actual)
Current Average
73.0
65.5
7.6
68.5
65.6
2.9
4.5
-0.2
4.7
Current Standard Deviation
6.123637
9.076852
14.48395
9.12465
14.541164
17.72834
9.814591
13.53538
16.13165
71106
Kentucky
2kSports Central Arkansas
83
54
29
67
40
27
16
14
2
71107
Kentucky
2kSports Gardner Webb
81
57
24
68
84
-16
13
-27
40
71121
Kentucky
Liberty
80
46
34
80
54
26
0
-8
8
71124
Kentucky
Texas Southern
77
62
15
83
35
48
-6
27
-33
71127
Kentucky
Stony Brook
87
40
47
62
52
10
25
-12
37
71201
Kentucky
UNC
71
69
2
77
86
-9
-6
-17
11
71208
Kentucky
@Indiana
67
74
-7
51
70
-19
16
4
12
71215
Kentucky
UAB @FreedomHall
69
64
5
76
79
-3
-7
-15
8
71218
Kentucky
@Houston
67
70
-3
69
83
-14
-2
-13
11
71222
Kentucky
Tennessee Tech
87
54
33
69
47
22
18
7
11
71229
Kentucky
San Diego
76
53
23
72
81
-9
4
-28
32
71231
Kentucky
Florida International
79
58
21
92
49
43
-13
9
-22
80105
Kentucky
Louisville
68
65
3
75
89
-14
-7
-24
17
80112
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
76
75
1
79
73
6
-3
2
-5
80115
Kentucky
@Mississippi State
65
72
-7
64
69
-5
1
3
-2
80119
Kentucky
@Florida
66
76
-10
70
81
-11
-4
-5
1
80122
Kentucky
Tennessee
70
77
-7
72
66
6
-2
11
-13
80126
Kentucky
USC
73
69
4
78
70
8
-5
-1
-4
80202
Kentucky
@Georgia
69
68
1
63
58
5
6
10
-4
80206
Kentucky
@Auburn
73
67
6
66
63
3
7
4
3
80209
Kentucky
Alabama
78
66
12
62
52
10
16
14
2
80212
Kentucky
@Vanderbilt
71
76
-5
52
93
-41
19
-17
36
80216
Kentucky
@LSU
68
69
-1
67
63
4
1
6
-5
80219
Kentucky
Georgia
73
62
11
61
55
6
12
7
5
80223
Kentucky
Arkansas
72
66
6
63
58
5
9
8
1
80227
Kentucky
Mississippi
74
69
5
58
54
4
16
15
1
80302
Kentucky
@Tennessee
65
78
-13
60
63
-3
5
15
-10
80305
Kentucky
@USC
68
71
-3
71
63
8
-3
8
-11
80309
Kentucky
Florida
73
68
5
75
70
5
-2
-2
0
80314
Kentucky
SEC Georgia
72
63
9
56
60
-4
16
3
13
80315
Kentucky
SEC
66
71
-5
66
74
-8
0
-3
3

 

 

TABLE VII
RESULTS TO DATE FOR 2006-07
LAST UPDATE, MARCH 18, 2007

Summary of 2006-07 Prediction Results For Games Through 70318 Against NCAA KANSAS
Total # of Games Predicted: 34
Total # of Games Predicted Right Winner: 28
Percentage of Predictions with Right Winner: 82.4%
Predicted Scores Predicted Actual Score Actual Point Differentials
Kentucky Opponents Margin Kentucky Opponents Margin Kentucky Opponents Line
Points Points Points Points (Predicted - Actual)
Averages 72.8 65.6 7.1 73.4 67.7 5.7 -0.6 -2.1 1.4
2006-07 Maximum 83 84 31 95 89 38 13 26 23
Season Minimum 61 46 -20 57 46 -17 -25 -34 -27
Std Dev 5.3 8.5 12.2 9.6 11.8 12.4 9.3 12.3 10.2
Percentage: Predicted to Actual: 99.1% 96.9%
Date Kentucky Opponent Predicted Scores Predicted Actual Score Actual Point Differentials
yymmdd Kentucky Opponents Margin Kentucky Opponents Margin Kentucky Opponent Line
Points Points Points Points (Predicted - Actual)
Current Average 72.8 65.6 7.1 73.4 67.7 5.7 (0.6) (2.1) 1.4
Current Standard Deviation 5.3 8.5 12.2 9.6 11.8 12.4 9.3 12.3 10.2
61115 Kentucky Miami_Ohio 69 60 9 57 46 11 12 14 (2)
61117 Kentucky MissValleyState 77 46 31 79 56 23 (2) (10) 8
61120 Kentucky DePaul @ Maui 62 53 9 87 81 6 (25) (28) 3
61121 Kentucky UCLA @ Maui 61 81 (20) 68 73 (5) (7) 8 (15)
61122 Kentucky Memphis @ Maui 70 81 (11) 63 80 (17) 7 1 6
61128 Kentucky CollegeofCharleston 77 62 15 77 61 16 0 1 (1)
61202 Kentucky @ UNC 69 84 (15) 63 75 (12) 6 9 (3)
61205 Kentucky Chattanooga @ Louisville 75 59 16 79 63 16 (4) (4) 0
61209 Kentucky Indiana 67 69 (2) 59 54 5 8 15 (7)
61216 Kentucky @ Louisville 67 75 (8) 61 49 12 6 26 (20)
61219 Kentucky Santa Clara 75 57 18 74 60 14 1 (3) 4
61222 Kentucky Massachusetts 77 59 18 82 68 14 (5) (9) 4
61229 Kentucky Eastern Kentucky 80 53 27 78 65 13 2 (12) 14
70103 Kentucky Houston 83 62 21 77 70 7 6 (8) 14
70106 Kentucky @ Ole Miss 74 65 9 68 58 10 6 7 (1)
70110 Kentucky Auburn 79 59 20 84 57 27 (5) 2 (7)
70113 Kentucky Mississippi State 76 63 13 64 60 4 12 3 9
70116 Kentucky @ South Carolina 71 60 11 87 49 38 (16) 11 (27)
70120 Kentucky Vanderbilt 80 62 18 67 72 (5) 13 (10) 23
70124 Kentucky @ Georgia 70 71 (1) 69 78 (9) 1 (7) 8
70128 Kentucky Tennessee 81 66 15 76 57 19 5 9 (4)
70203 Kentucky @ Arkansas 67 68 (1) 82 74 8 (15) (6) (9)
70207 Kentucky USC 78 55 23 95 89 6 (17) (34) 17
70210 Kentucky Florida 69 72 (3) 61 64 (3) 8 8 0
70213 Kentucky @ Tennessee 73 74 (1) 85 89 (4) (12) (15) 3
70217 Kentucky @ Alabama 72 69 3 61 72 (11) 11 (3) 14
70220 Kentucky LSU 74 61 13 70 63 7 4 (2) 6
70225 Kentucky @ Vanderbilt 71 72 (1) 65 67 (2) 6 5 1
70228 Kentucky Georgia 77 64 13 82 70 12 (5) (6) 1
70304 Kentucky @ Florida 66 74 (8) 72 85 (13) (6) (11) 5
70308 Kentucky SEC ALABAMA 75 66 9 79 67 12 (4) (1) (3)
70309 Kentucky SEC MISSST 73 69 4 82 84 (2) (9) (15) 6
70316 Kentucky NCAA VILLANOVA 71 68 3 67 58 9 4 10 (6)
70318 Kentucky NCAA KANSAS 68 72 (4) 76 88 (12) (8) (16) 8

 

 

 

TABLE VIII
RESULTS FOR 2004-05 AND 2005-06

Date
Home
Visitor
Predicted
Scores
Predicted
Actual
Score
Actual
Margin
Did Model
Team
Team
Home
Visitors
Margin
Home
Visitors
Margin
Difference
Predict
Predicted
Winner
v Actual
YES/NO
41120
Kentucky
Coppin
82
50
32
77
46
31
1
YES
41123
Kentucky
BALL ST
81
60
21
73
53
20
1
YES
41126
Kentucky
GEORGIAST
86
52
34
77
59
18
16
YES
41130
Kentucky
TENNTECH
120
77
42
92
63
29
13
YES
41204
UNC
Kentucky
85
63
22
91
78
13
9
YES
41208
Kentucky
Morehead
94
80
13
71
40
31
-18
YES
41211
Kentucky
Indiana@
65
62
2
73
58
15
-13
YES
41218
Louisville
Kentucky
74
73
0
58
60
-2
2
NO
41222
Kentucky
Will & Mary
103
83
20
92
47
45
-25
YES
41229
Kentucky
Campbell
82
56
27
82
50
32
-5
YES
50105
Kentucky
USC
66
66
0
79
75
4
-4
YES
50109
Kentucky
Kansas
66
74
-8
59
65
-6
-2
YES
50112
Kentucky
Vanderbilt
70
67
3
69
54
15
-12
YES
50115
Georgia
Kentucky
62
74
-13
55
76
-21
8
YES
50119
Mississippi
Kentucky
62
72
-10
50
53
-3
-7
YES
50122
Kentucky
LSU
77
69
7
89
58
31
-24
YES
50125
Tennessee
Kentucky
65
74
-9
62
84
-22
13
YES
50129
Arkansas
Kentucky
67
70
-3
67
68
-1
-2
YES
50205
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
66
71
-4
70
84
-14
10
YES
50208
Kentucky
Florida
71
70
1
69
66
3
-2
YES
50212
Kentucky
Georgia
73
61
12
60
51
9
3
YES
50215
USC
Kentucky
65
69
-5
73
61
12
-17
NO
50219
Kentucky
Miss St
71
67
4
94
78
16
-12
YES
50223
Kentucky
Auburn
77
66
12
81
73
8
4
YES
50226
Alabama
Kentucky
70
70
0
71
78
-7
7
YES
50302
Kentucky
Tennessee
73
66
7
73
61
12
-5
YES
50306
Florida
Kentucky
69
69
0
53
52
1
-1
NO
50311
Kentucky
Tennessee
72
66
7
76
62
14
-7
YES
50312
Kentucky
LSU
74
69
4
79
78
1
3
YES
50313
Kentucky
Florida
70
69
1
53
70
-17
18
NO
50317
Kentucky
EKU
76
63
13
72
64
8
5
YES
50319
Kentucky
Cincinnati
71
69
2
69
60
9
-7
YES
50325
Kentucky
Utah
68
63
5
62
52
10
-5
YES
50327
Kentucky
Michigan State
70
71
-1
88
94
-6
5
YES
51113
Kentucky
S. Dakota St.
78
57
22
71
54
17
5
YES
51114
Kentucky
Lipscomb
79
63
16
67
49
18
-2
YES
51121
Texas
West Virginia
68
59
9
76
75
1
8
YES
51121
Kentucky
Iowa
60
69
-9
63
67
-4
-5
YES
51122
Kentucky
W. Virginia
67
69
-2
80
66
14
-16
NO
51125
Kentucky
Liberty
79
53
26
81
51
30
-4
YES
51129
Kentucky
HighPoint
78
61
17
75
55
20
-3
YES
51203
Kentucky
UNC
72
69
3
79
83
-4
7
NO
51206
Georgia St
Kentucky
64
76
-12
46
73
-27
15
YES
51210
Kentucky
Indiana
72
73
-1
53
79
-26
25
YES
51217
Kentucky
Louisville
67
70
-3
73
61
12
-15
NO
51223
Kentucky
Iona @ Louisville (BBSN)
73
66
7
73
67
6
1
YES
51230
Kentucky
Ohio @ Cincinnati (ESPN2)
67
65
3
71
63
8
-5
YES
60103
Kentucky
Central Florida (BBSN)
73
55
18
59
57
2
16
YES
60107
Kentucky
@ Kansas (ESPN)
67
66
-1
73
46
27
-28
NO
60110
Kentucky
Vanderbilt (ESPN)
67
88
-21
52
57
-5
-16
YES
60114
Kentucky
Alabama (CBS)
68
65
3
64
68
-4
7
NO
60117
Kentucky
@ Georgia (ESPN)
68
70
2
55
69
-14
16
NO
60121
Kentucky
South Carolina (JP)
64
66
-2
80
78
2
-4
NO
60124
Kentucky
@ Auburn (ESPN)
64
66
2
62
71
-9
11
NO
60129
Kentucky
Arkansas (CBS)
66
68
-2
78
76
2
-4
NO
60201
Kentucky
@ Mississippi State (JP)
65
66
1
66
81
-15
16
NO
60204
Kentucky
@ Florida (ESPN2)
76
62
-14
95
80
15
-29
NO
60207
Kentucky
Tennessee (ESPN)
71
74
-3
67
75
-8
5
YES
60211
Kentucky
@ Vanderbilt (JP)
71
64
-7
84
81
3
-10
NO
60215
Kentucky
Georgia (JP)
74
66
9
68
61
7
2
YES
60218
Kentucky
@ South Carolina (CBS)
72
62
-10
66
79
-13
3
YES
60222
Kentucky
Ole Miss (JP)
74
61
13
80
40
40
-27
YES
60225
Kentucky
@ LSU (CBS)
74
64
-11
71
67
4
-15
NO
60301
Kentucky
@ Tennessee (JP)
79
67
-12
78
80
-2
-10
YES
60305
Kentucky
Florida
69
72
-3
64
79
-15
12
YES
60309
Kentucky
Mississippi SEC
95
81
14
71
57
14
0
YES
60310
Kentucky
Alabama SEC
69
68
0
68
61
7
-7
YES
60311
Kentucky
USC SEC
67
66
1
61
65
-4
5
NO
60317
Kentucky
NCAA UAB
68
70
-2
69
64
5
-7
NO
60319
Kentucky
NCAA UCONN
67
74
-7
83
87
-4
-3
YES
Total Predictions
34
Right Picks:
31
91.2%
Averages
74.8
67.7
7.0
72.3
63.9
8.5
-1.5
Through
Maximum
120
83
42
94
94
45
18
2004-05
Minimum
62
50
-13
50
40
-22
-25
Season
Std Dev
12.0
7.1
13.1
12.1
12.6
15.9
10.6
Percentage
Predicted
103.4%
106.1%
To Actual:
Total Predictions
36
Right Picks:
26
72.2%
Averages
70.9
67.0
1.2
70.1
67.3
2.8
-1.6
2005-06
Maximum
95
88
26
95
87
40
25
Season
Minimum
60
53
-21
46
40
-27
-29
Std Dev
6.3
6.8
10.6
10.1
11.6
14.6
12.9
Percentage
Predicted
101.2%
99.6%
To Actual:

NOTE:  These Tables Provide All Predictions
beginning in November 2004 to Present
Prediction Methods are Evolving and
not all predictions presented here are based on the same methodology.  Questions about the Methodology should be directed to GoBigBlue@BigBlueFans4UK.com


To a Summary Variances of Predicted and Actual Game Efficiencies
2010 through 2012

IMPORTANT NOTE: In 2009-10, the Kentucky basketball team's rebounding became so dominant in the first 10 games that the differences created by a varied definition of a possession became substantial, and based on a 10 game comparison of predicted and actual results using the original definition and the Pomeroy definition, I have decided to start using the Pomeroy definition for a possession beginning with the 2009-10 season, and thereafter. However, I have no means to convert the data for all prior seasons to this new definition at this time. Therefore, any attempts to compare pace and efficiency derived values for 2009-10 and later with any prior season's posted values will fail. The differences are:

1. Pace values will be lower, by the number of offensive rebounds.

2. Efficiencies will be higher due to the lower number of total possessions

3. Turnover rates will be higher due to the lower number of possessions.

CHECK OUT THESE OTHER ANALYTICAL WRITINGS

What Is Basketball?

What is a Possession?

Change in Position on Definition of Possessions

What Is Net Game Efficiency?

Why Do "Upsets" Occur?

Do Objective Performance Measures Like NGE
Account For Intangible?

 

Go Back

Copyright 2006 - 2012
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved