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2014-15 Season Analytical Writings

05
Cats Take On Buffalo In Final Tuneup For Kansas Encounter

On Friday evening, the Cats started the season on a strong note, with a 40 point domination of Grand Canyon. Today, Coach Calipari gets another opportunity to test drive this team against a D1 opponent before traveling to Indianapolis on Tuesday for their encounter with Kansas in the Champions Classic.

The overall performance Friday was nothing short of outstanding. The 40 point margin is in line with the level of improvement over last year to put this team into the legitimate conversation for April. Furthermore, the platooning could not have been more impressive, and each platoon finished the game with almost identical efficiency results. If there is any cause for concern from this writer's perspective, it is tempo. I believe that this UK team is so much more talented than any opponent on its schedule that the only chance an opponent has to keep it close is to shorten the game by controlling the pace. The Cats must learn to exert their will in this area and play at a pace of 74 to 76 possessions on average, and that process must begin on the defensive end.

Buffalo is the next opponent, and the Bulls should be a step up from the Antelopes in terms of competition. Last year, Buffalo finished 19-10 and won the Eastern Division of the Mid-American Conference. Buffalo's most impressive win last year was a 5 point win over #85 St Bonaventure as the Bulls finished with a #100 Pomeroy rating. Their most difficult loss was by 3 at #317 Ball State and by 11 at #271 Niagara.

Buffalo opened their 2014-15 season on Friday with a win over #179 South Dakota State by 2 points. The Bulls played that game at a tempo of 75 possessions and scored 69 points (0.920 ppp) and allowed 67 points (0.887 ppp).

The Bulls played their games last season at an average pace of 68 possessions per game, scoring 73.5 ppg (0.912 ppp) while allowing 67.3 ppg (0.841 ppp). Buffalo's turnover rate was 18.4%, and their work on the Boards was strong, grabbing 35.1% of their own misses. They were able to secure an impressive 71.4% of their opponents' missed shots. The Cats finished 2014 averaging 68 to 69 possessions per game, scoring 75.7 ppg (1.105 ppp) while allowing only 64.3 ppg (0.943 ppp). The Cats' turned the ball over on 18.0% of their possessions. The rebounding was strong, securing 38.1% of their own missed shots and 69.0% of opponent misses.

During the opening game, the Cats managed only 69 possessions, scoring 85 points (1.241 ppp) and allowing 45.points (0.662 ppp) against Grand Canyon. The numbers indicate a UK win by 41 points, 87-46 in a game played at a pace of 69 possessions based solely on each team's 2015 opening games. Pomeroy sees this as a 21 point game, 84-62, played at a pace of 70 possessions. Vegas sees this as a 33 point game with an over/under of 145.

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari continues with the same platoon alignment he used Friday night. Tonight, the first unit will include the Platoon system with Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Alex Poythress, Aaron Harrison, and Andrew Harrison on the Opening Platoon. Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Devin Booker, and Tyler Ulis are the five members of the Closing Platoon. Dominique Hawkins, and E. J. Floreal will provide reserve help to the platoons should injury or fouls become an issue during the game. Derek Willis will not play tonight due to illness.

The Cats control the tip and score on a second chance basket by Aaron Harrison, but the Bulls answer with the next 5 points. After the Cats regain the lead by 3, 10-7, Buffalo score 5 in a row to take a 12-10 lead and forcing a Kentucky timeout to bring in the second platoon with 16:02 remaining. The Cats scored 10 points on 8 possessions, but the defense was AWOL allowing 12 points on the same 8 possessions.

Trey Lyles brings the Cats back to even with a foul line jumper. The second platoon outscored the Bulls' 10-4 to regain the lead 20-16 with 13:01 remaining. Coach Calipari switched back to platoon 1 a little early. At the under 12 media timeout, 3 possessions in to the most recent rotation, Coach Calipari told the first group that if they did not start playing, the second group would play the remainder of the first half. With 10:14 remaining, Coach Calipari makes good on his promise with the Cats down 20-21 and the Bulls in possession.

The second group waste no time regaining the lead on Tyler Ulis's second 3 pointer of the game. However, Buffalo pulls back to even at 23, which is where the score remains at the under 8 media timeout with 7:45 remaining in the first half. Buffalo's zone defense had forced this UK team to rely on 3 point shots, and while Tyler Ulis is 2-2, the rest of the team is 0-7 for outside the arc. Furthermore, Buffalo offense has no fear, much like their coach Bobby Hurley when he ruled the game as a point guard at Duke.

If this team plays the way it did in the first half today, it will lose 10 games again this season, and all the pre-season hype will be relegated to the waste heap of basketball lore.

The Cats trail 38-33 at the half in a game played at a pace of 37 possessions (76 full game tempo). The Cats scored its 33 points on 37 possessions (0.892 ppp) and Buffalo scored 38 points on 37 possessions (1.027 ppp). The Cats shot poorly, 12-34 overall, and only 3-13 (23.1) from outside the arc. From the line, UK made 6-9 (66.7%) while Buffalo got to the stripe 14 times, making 10 (71.4%).

The Cats controlled the Boards 24-15, and 11-4 on the offensive glass, but Buffulo used its 4 offensive rebounds to score 8 second chance points while the Cats used its 11 offensive rebounds for only 12 points. The Cats managed to get 50% of its misses, while Buffalo only grabbed 23.3% of its misses.

The Cats committed 10 turnover (27.0%) and forced 7 Buffalo turnovers (18.9%).

By the 10 minute mark of the first half, Coach Calipari had all but abandoned his pattened platoon system, playing the final 8 minutes with a mix and match combination of players from the two platoons. The Cats committed 13 first half fouls, and Buffalo only fouled 9 times. Karl-Anthony Towns is the only Cat with foul troubles, with 3.

Second Half:

Coach Calipari starts the second half with platoon 2. Trey Lyles hit a 3 pointers, stole the inbounds pass and scored a dunk to tie the score after less than a minute into the second half, and Bobby Hurley takes a quick timeout with 19:10 remaining. The Cats force back to back stops, followed by a 3 pointer by Tyler Ulis and a free throw by Trey Lyles to put the Cats up 42-38, but Buffalo answered with another 5 point run to close the opening segment still on top of the Cats, 43-42 at the under 16 media timeout. Late in the segment, Coach Calipari inserted the first platoon, and Karl-Anthony Towns committed his 4 personal foul of the game on the Cats' first trip down the floor.

In the second segment, Buffalo scored first to go back on top by 3, but the Cats finished strong to move on top by 5 points, their largest lead of this game, 50-45, at the under 12 media timeout and 11:30 remaining in the game. The Cats have outscored the Bulls 17-7 in the second half. In the third segment, the Cats continue to assert themselves, with a 8-2 run to extend their lead into double digits for the first time today, 58-47 at the under 8 media timeout with 7:18 remaining in the game. In the second half, the Cats have outscored Buffalo 25-9. Coach Calipari is asking his players to continue their second half defensive intensity.

In a prolonged 4 th segment, the Cats outscore the Bulls 7-1 to extend their lead to 17, 65-48 with 2:30 remaining in the game. The Cats win 71-52.

Analysis:

UK scored its 71 points in a total of 67 possessions (1.06 ppp) for the game, and Buffalo scored its 52 points on a total of 66 possessions 0.79 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 45-25, and the Cats won the battle of the offensive glass 19-7. Kentucky used its 19 second chance possessions to score 20 second chance points, winning the second chance points battle 20-8. Buffalo had an offensive efficiency of 0.667 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.143 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.761 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.056 ppp on its 19 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 51.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Buffalo was able to convert an anemic 21.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 15-23 [65.2%]. Buffalo made 16-21 [76.2%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-61 overall [41.0%] and 6-20 from long range [30.0%]. For Buffalo , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a low 12-34 [35.3%] and from long range, Buffalo hit 4-12 [33.3%].

The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 4.8 possessions. The Cats forced 17 Buffalo turnovers, one for every 3.9 possessions.

The platoon approach broke down in the first half of the game today, but Coach Calipari returned to the regular platoon rotations in the second half and the Cats outscored Buffalo 38-14 in the second half.

Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday night at 9 pm in Indianapolis against Kansas in the Champions Classic

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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