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2014-15 Season Analytical Writings

06
Cats and Jayhawks Tangle at Champions Classic In Indianapolis

Kentucky fans like to think that the basketball games are about the names on the front of those shirts rather than the names on the back. Coach Calipari makes sure that everyone within earshot of his voice knows that his players' first program is all about the names on the back. However, when two of the sports' blue bloods meet in a marquee matchup, it is only about the names that appear on the front of the shirts. Those are the names that the venue places on display on their huge marquees.

Kansas and Kentucky both routinely appear on anyone's list of top basketball programs in any era, decade or season. On Tuesday night, Indianapolis will host this 28 th encounter between these marquee programs.

I recall a time when these two proud programs played every season. However, that tradition has given way in recent years. Overall, Kentucky holds a 21-6 series advantage. However, after dominating the Jayhawks 16-1 through 1986, the series is 5-5 since, with each team winning two in a row and three in a row over the nearly 30 years.

The last time these teams met in a regular season game, it was November 15, 2011 in New York at the inaugural Champions Classic. The Cats won that evening 75-65. As only such a history of meetings could produce, and these same teams met each other again nearly 5 months later in the Championship game of the NCAA Tournament, where the Cats laid claim to their 8 th National Championship, 67-59.

Can history repeat itself? As the 2014-15 season strains to get started, the Marquee matchup in this year's Champions Classic involve none other than Kentucky and Kansas, both are highly ranked in the early going, and there would be no one surprised to see them wind their way through their respective schedules and meet again in April also in Indianapolis.

Kansas and Kentucky travel to Indianapolis without a loss in this early season. The Cats have played twice and won twice, while the Jayhawks have only played one game. Last Friday, KU beat #85 UC Santa Barbara by 10, 69-59 at Allen Field House in a game played at a 71 possession tempo. Last year, Kansas won 25 games against the toughest schedule in the land. They played at a 70 possession tempo, scoring 79.0 ppg (1.127 ppp) and allowing 70.1 ppg (1.010 ppp). The Jayhawks finished with an adjusted NGE of 0.220 ppp.

Based on very limited data for this season, the Cats should be favored to win this encounter with Kansas. Pomeroy sees a very close game, 2 points in favor of the Cats,72-70. Vegas opened with the Cats favored by 3 points, and that line has eased up to a 4 point advantage as I write this tonight. The NGE analysis has the Cats as a 6 point favorite, 72-66, based on the two games played by UK and the one game played by Kansas.

Some believe the season is all about these marquee games. I tend to agree with that point of view, and on Tuesday night, Kansas and Kentucky fans will learn more about their teams than either could garner from the games of the last 3 days.

Game Summary:

Coach Calipari continues with the same platoon alignment he used the first two games. Tonight, the first unit will include the Platoon system with Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns, Alex Poythress, Aaron Harrison, and Andrew Harrison on the Opening Platoon. Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Devin Booker, and Tyler Ulis are the five members of the Closing Platoon. Dominique Hawkins, Derek Willis, and E. J. Floreal will provide reserve help to the platoons should injury or fouls become an issue during the game..

Kansas' starting five are Mason, Selden, Oubre, Traylor, and Ellis. That is one change from their lineup for their opener, with Oubre taking the place of Greene.

Towns slapped the opening tip out of bounds, so for the first time this season, an opponent will get the first possession. The Cats manage to get through the opening segment with a slim 2 point lead, 8-6, but Kansas will be shooting a pair of free throws after the under 16 media timeout. Coach Calipari brings in the white platoon. The White group outscore the Jayhawks 6-2 in their 3 minutes of play to lift the Cats on top 14-9 at the under 12 media timeout. However, as with the last media timeout, Kansas will be shooting free throws when play resumes.

The officials are calling this game closely, with 5 quick fouls on both teams. Kansas has two players with a pair of early fouls, Oubre and Alexander, and the Cats do not have a player with two fouls yet. The Blue platoon return to the floor. Kansas missed both free throws, and Andrew Harrison drained a 3 pointer to lift the Cats to 17-9. Then after a Kansas missed, Willie Cauley-Stein scores on an inbounds pass under the UK basket, and is fouled to expand the lead to 19-9, prompting a Kansas timeout with 10:01 remaining. Willie Cauley-Stein missed the free throw, but Alex Poythress got the offensive rebound and Willie Cauley-Stein scored on a put back. Kansas turns the ball over again, and Aaron Harrison drains a 3 pointer to expand the lead to 15 points, 24-9, forcing another quick Kansas timeout with 9:24 remaining.

The Blue platoon finish off their segment with a 26-10 lead at the under 8 media timeout, and as twice before, Kansas will be shooting free throws after the media timeout. In the first 3 segments, the Cats have scored 26 points on 20 possessions (1.300) and Kansas has managed 10 points on 20 possessions (0.500) for a whopping interim game NGE of 0.800 ppp.

The white platoon returns for the Cats. The fourth segment was the most productive for the Jayhawks, scoring 5 points on 6 possessions, but the Cats managed 9 points on 7 possession, with Aaron Harrison draining a 3 pointer at the end, forcing Kansas to burn their 3 rd timeout with 3:01 to play and the Cats on top 35-17.

Kansas comes alive in the closing minutes of the first half with an 11-2 run to trim the one time 18 point lead to 9 points, 37-28, forcing Coach Calipari to take a timeout with 0:24 remaining in the half. Dakari Johnson makes one of two free throws to close the scoring in the first half and give the Cats a 10 point lead to take to the locker room, 38-28.

The Cats lead 38-28 at the half in a game played at a pace of 32 possessions (64 full game tempo). The Cats scored its 38 points on 31 possessions (1.226 ppp) and Kansas scored 28 points on 32 possessions (0.875 ppp). The Cats shot poorly, 13-33 (39.4%) overall, and only 4-13 (30.8%) from outside the arc. Kansas shot even less effectively, making 5 of 25 inside the arc and 3-8 from outside the arc. From the line, UK made 8-13 (61.5%) while Kansas got to the stripe 14 times, making 9 (64.3%).

The Cats controlled the Boards for most of the first half, but Kansas asserted itself over the last 4 minutes to close the rebounding gap to 27-24, and the Jayhawks ended the half with more offensive rebounds, 13-12, than the Cats. Kansas converted its 13 offensive rebounds into 7 second chance points, while the Cats converted their 12 offensive boards to score 13 points. . The Cats managed to get 52.2% of its misses, while Kansas grabbed a strong 46.4% of its misses.

The Cats committed 4 turnover (12.9%) and forced 5 Kansas turnovers (15.69%).

Second Half:

Coach Calipari starts the second half with platoon 2. The White Platoon hold the Jayhawks scoreless and extend the UK lead to 16 when Coach Calipari brings the blue platoon from the bench with 16:26 remaining in the game. In the second segment, the blue platoon extends the lead back to 18 points, 53-35 with 12:00 to play. Following a running hook by Karl-Anthony Towns to lift the Cats to their biggest lead, 21 points, 57-36, Kansas takes another timeout with 9:36 remaining in the game. In the second half, the Cats have outscored the Jayhawks 19-8.

At the under 8 media timeout, the Cats lead has swelled to 23, 59-36. At the final media timeout, with 2:53 remaining, the Cats lead 66-38 (28 points). Hawkins and Willis have been inserted into the game since about the 4 minute mark. The Cats finsih the game with the bench completely cleared for a 72-40 win over #5 Kansas.

Analysis:

UK scored its 72 points in 61 possessions (1.18 ppp) for the game, and Kansas scored its 40 points on a total of 61 possessions 0.66 ppp).

Kentucky won the battle of the boards, with a rebounding edge 46-42, but the Cats lost the battle of the offensive glass 15-20. Kentucky used its 15 second chance possessions to score 19 second chance points, winning the second chance points battle 19-9. Kansas had an offensive efficiency of 0.508 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 0.450 ppp for its 20 second chance possessions. UK had 0.870 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.267 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 40.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Kansas was able to convert a strong 39.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 16-26 [61.5%]. Kansas made 15-27 [55.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-58 overall [43.1%] and 6-18 from long range [33.3%]. For Kansas , their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a low 8-41 [19.9%] and from long range, Kansas hit 3-15 [20.0%].

The Cats committed 6 turnovers, one for every 10.2 possessions. The Cats forced 11 Kansas turnovers, one for every 5.5 possessions.

Next Game On Schedule: Friday night at 7 pm at Rupp Arena against Boston University

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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