Cats and Badgers Set For Final Four Rematch

Use The Link Above To View The Data In The Following Four Tables
Referenced In the Following Narrative:

Last year, the Kentucky magical mystery tour through the NCAA Tournament included a Final Four encounter with Wisconsin. The result was a continuation of the Wildcat's tour to the Championship game, and a disappointing trip back to Madison for the Badgers about 2 days earlier than they had hoped and planned. The Basketball gods have a way of setting the table for rematches for games of this nature, and the 2015 Final Four will be a rematch of this classic 2014 encounter.

Few observers of the 2013-14 season and the 2014 NCAA Tournament said that last year's Kentucky team was a better team than last year's Wisconsin team based on each teams' complete body of work. The numbers bear this out. The individual efficiency tables above are for these teams at the end of last season. Wisconsin's adjusted Net Game Efficiency (ppp) for the team was stronger (0.153 ppp vs 0.122 ppp). Individually, Wisconsin had 8 players that appeared in the majority of their games and logged significant minutes. All 8 of these Wisconsin players contributed positively to the team's good efficiency. Kentucky on the other hand had 10 contributors, but three of them had individual efficiencies in the “red” including starter James Young, and key reserves Jarrod Polson and Dominique Hawkins.

The teams' respective efficiencies indicated Wisconsin was about 1 to 2 points stronger than the Cats on a neutral court. However, the Vegas insiders must have factored in the fact that in three NCAA games leading to last year's final four encounter, the Cats defeated undefeated Wichita State, favored Louisville, and favored Michigan to reach the Final Four. Vegas set the game with Kentucky a 1 ½ point favorite. Kentucky managed to take the win by 1 point, 74-73, after Aaron Harrison made a 3 pointer with 6 seconds remaining.

In a single game, the “best” team does not always win.
The way teams are playing over their last 3 to 5 games in a tournament may be a better indicator than how the same teams have played their entire season.
The Vegas insiders are not in the business of making huge mistakes in their handicapping.

Almost immediately after this classic Final Four battle, anyone looking at the Wisconsin roster knew that the Badgers would be a better team in 2014-15 and would probably return to the Final Four to finish the job they started but fell short. When Aaron Harrison, Andrew Harrison, Dakari Johnson, Marcus Lee, Alex Poythress, and Willie Cauley Stein all decided to return to Kentucky to finish the job they failed to complete on last year's Championship Monday, astute observers knew the 2014-15 Kentucky team would be greatly improved as well. A Wisconsin-Kentucky rematch was simply a matter of timing, and destiny.

All season long, Kentucky has occupied the #1 position in the polls and on any legitimate rating system; however, Wisconsin was always right there occupying the #2 or #3 spot, and identified as 1 of only 2 teams with the tools needed to hand Kentucky its only loss of this season. For awhile, it appeared that this rematch would occur in the Midwest Elite 8, but late season stumbles by Virginia and Gonzaga opened the #1 seed in the West for Wisconsin to claim. Many would have preferred a Wisconsin-Kentucky encounter on Championship Monday, but the rematch will happen next Saturday evening in Indianapolis when the officials toss up the ball for the Final Four.

Gone from last year's Wisconsin roster are Gasser, and Brust from the 8 regular players, and Bohannon a solid reserve who participated in 14 games but did not see action against Kentucky. The returning contributors from the Badger's 2013-14 roster are Gasser, Hayes, Kaminsky, Dekker, Koenig, Dukan, and Jackson. Each of them played in the game last year. The Badgers have added Showalter and Brown to their 2014-15 regular rotation. Showalter is a redshirt sophomore and Brown is a true sophomore. Traevon Jackson has seen action in only 19 games thus far this season. He started the first 17 games before sustaining a foot injury in the Badgers' loss to Rutgers. Jackson has seen limited action in each of the Badgers' Regional games against North Carolina and Arizona.

Gasser's efficiencies has improved over last season, as has Kominsky's, Dekker's and Hayes'. Koenig's efficiency has slipped some from 2014. Dukan's efficiency has slipped into the “red” and new comer Brown's efficiency is in the “red” on the season. Newcomer Showalter has seen action in 34 games, averaging 7.7 minutes per game has been the most efficient Badger this season during his time on the floor. Jackson efficiency this year is almost identical to last year's. Overall, the 2014-15 Badgers have improved and their year to date adjusted Net Game Efficiency (ppp) stands at 0.25 ppp, up from 0.15 ppp last season.

Gone from last year's Kentucky roster are Randle and Young, each early entries to the NBA, and Polson and Hood who each completed their college eligibility last season. Returning players from the 10 regular players include Willie Cauley Stein, Marcus Lee, Dakari Johnson, Alex Poythress, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison, and Dominique Hawkins. Each of them except Willie Cauley Stein played in the Wisconsin game last year. The Cats have added Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Karl Anthony Towns, and Tyler Ulis to their 2014-15 regular rotation. Alex Poythress saw action in Kentucky's first 8 games before sustaining a season ending injury.

Marcus Lee's efficiencies has improved over last season, as has Dakari Johnson's, Aaron Harrison,s, and Andrew Harrison's. Hawkins' efficiency has slipped some from 2014 in the “red.” Willie Cauley Stein's efficiency has slipped but remains the 4 th strongest on this year's team. The newcomers, Freshmen all, have made major contributions to this team's improvement over last season. Tyler Ulis is the second most efficient player on this team, Karl Anthony Towns is #3, just slightly below the pace set by Tyler Ulis. Trey Lyles is 6 th , and Devin Booker is 8 th . Overall, the 2014-15 Wildcats have improved and their year to date adjusted Net Game Efficiency (ppp) stands at 0.32 ppp, up from 0.12 ppp last season.

Both teams have improved significantly from last year. The Cats' improvement has been more substantial. Based on each team's complete body of work leading into this rematch, the Cats are a slightly stronger team, with an advantage of about 2 to 3 points. Vegas Insiders has opened with a line of 6 points in Kentucky's favor. On Saturday evening, at 6 pm, the world will tune in to see if the sequel can measure up to the original encounter from 2014.