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OPPONENT TRENDING ADJUSTED NET EFFICEINCY
(ANE)
The Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) (Offensive Efficiency - Defensive Efficiency, adjusted for venue and opponent strength) is the best measure of a team's strength. It has been demonstrated a valid basis of comparision, team to team in a single season, and season to season. (See An Explanation)
A team's trending ANE can also provide some insight into how a team is likely to perform into future seasons.
Before looking at each individual team, I have tabulated a summary of all the teams featured in this article. For each team, the values are by column:
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The Name of the Program;
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The number of times in last 10 seasons, the Team's season ANE was equal to or greater than the National Champion's ANE for that same season;
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The number of National Championships won during the last 10 seasons;
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The number of seasons the Team's season ANE was equal to or greater than 0.28 ppp, the floor for legitimate Championship contenders; and
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The projected ANE for the Team based on the trend established over the last 10 years.
Three programs claimed 2 titles each, and four others claimed one title. Of these seven programs, only Kentucky, Duke, Louisville and Wisconsin have rising trend lines moving toward the 2016 season. Florida (Lost Coach Donovan), Kansas, and Connecticut are all in declining trends. Michigan State, Gonzaga, Arizona, and Baylor all boast rising trends. All the other nonconference entries are in declining trends.
In the SEC, only Kentucky and Florida have competed on the national stage over the last decade. Tennessee did have one season in which it out performed the National Champion, 2014, but that season appears to be the exception to their declining trend. No other SEC program is worthy of further comment in this summary.
KENTUCKY
The graph for Kentucky is a good place to begin because Big Blue Fans will be much more familiar with the history of the Kentucky program, especially over the last decade, than other programs. Kentucky provides a starting point to highlight some significant features that will appear on all following trend graphs, and to explain the significance of the year to year and trending.
All of the graphs will show the same 10 year span for each team, 2006 through 2015 seasons. The vertical axis of each graph utilizes the same maximum value, 0.35 ppp, and the minimum values are 0.00 ppp for nearly all graphs, unless a team has some ANE values that are less than 0.00 in which case, the minimum value may be -0.05 ppp or -0.10 ppp. The default vertical scale has a minimum value of 0.00 and a maximum of 0.35 ppp. With rare exception, the NCAA championship has been claimed by a team having an ANE of about 0.28 ppp or greater. An ANE value of 0.00 is the average for all NCAA D1 Teams. The small NCAA Final Four Logos on the graphs represent the 10 national champions.
The Cats equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE 4 of the 10 years, in 2011, 12, 14, and 15, and the Cats claimed the title in one of those 4 seasons of supreme excellence.
The Cats' 10 year window includes the last two seasons of the Tubby Smith era, the two years with Gillispie at the helm, and the first 6 years of the Calipari Era. The trend line on this graph, as well as all others, is based on the 10 year database. The trend for Kentucky is clearly rising, and given the falling trend that marked the Tubby Smith Era and the two Gilllispie seasons, the current rising trend can only be attributed to Coach Calipari's success.
Four of his six teams have outperformed the trend line. The 2013 team that plummeted after Nerlens Noel went down is clearly dragging the trend line downward. Going into the Florida game, the 2013 Cats had an ANE of 0.223 ppp. With Nerlens gone, the team went into the tank, finishing with an ANE of only 0.095 ppp. The following alternate Kentucky graph shows the impact that the loss of Nerlens Noel had on this trend analysis.
However, all teams encounter unexpected and rare setbacks, so in that spirit, the remainder of this analysis ignores the impact of the Noel injury.
The trend analysis projects an ANE of about 0.27 ppp for the 2016 season. As the trend analysis clearly demonstrates, no team performs along the trend line. Every team will have seasons above and below their trend. There is no way of knowing in advance which teams will perform above or below their current trend.
NONCONFERENCE OPPONENTS-THIS SEASON AND OTHERS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE:
The Cats will face five renowned national opponents during their 2015-16 nonconference schedule. These opponents include Duke, the defending national champions, Louisville, the Cats main archrival, Ohio State, and rematches against two nationally prominent programs that were each embarrassed on neutral courts by the 2014-15 Cats on national television.
Over the last decade, DUKE has won two national championships, 2010 and 2015, and their program has a slightly rising trend line. The two championship teams each performed at or about the 0.3 ppp threshhold for championship teams. Following the 2010 championship, DUKE slipped significantly in each of the next 2 seasons before rebuilding to championship form in 2015. Their trend line projects an ANE of about 0.25 ppp for 2016, which would be consistent with their post championship year in 2011.
The Blue Devils equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE 4 of the 10 years, in 2010, 11, 14, and 15, and the Blue Devils claimed the title in two of those 4 seasons of supreme excellence.
Kansas won the championship in 2008 and were runner up in 2010, the only years a Kansas team met or exceeded the 0.30 ppp championship threshhold, Since 2010, the Jayhawks have been on a five year slide, and their 10 year trend is downward. The trend extended to 2016 indicates an ANE of about 0.20 ppp for the upcoming season.
The Jayhawks equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE 3 of the 10 years, in 2008, 11, and 14, and the Jayhawks claimed the title in one of those 3 seasons of supreme excellence.
Louisville has also won one championship during the subject decade, in 2013 when its ANE rose above the 0.30 ppp championship threshhold for the only time in this decade. Even though the Cards' efficiency has slipped significantly in each of the two seasons since their championship, the Cards still sport a rising trend. Their trend, extended to 2016 indicates an efficiency of about 0.25 ppp. However, given the personnel losses following the 2015 season, do not be surprised if the 2016 Cardinals fail to perform up to this trend projection.
The Cards equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE 2 of the 10 years, in 2013 and 14, and the Cards claimed the title in one of those 2 seasons of supreme excellence.
Ohio State presents an interesting set of data that produces a very slightly declining trendline. Only one Buckeye team exceeded the 0.30 ppp championship threshhold, but the 2011 Cats derailed the 2011 Buckeye journey to the promised land in one of the great Kentucky upset wins in NCAA tournament history. Since that devastating loss in 2011, the Buckeyes have had a 3 year slide. The 2015 Ohio State team appears to have stabilized the slide at about 0.16 ppp on the shoulders of D'Angelo Russell, who has moved on to the NBA after his freshman season, securing the #2 overall pick by the Lakers. The trend suggests an ANE of about 0.21 ppp for 2016, but it remains to be seen whether the Buckeyes can replace Russell, to remain at their 0.16 ppp level of the last two seasons, much less add a sufficient amount of additional talent to reverse their current 4 season slide.
The Buckeyes equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE 1 of the 10 years, in 2011, and the Buckeyes have not claimed the title in this decade.
UCLA peaked in 2008 at about 0.26 ppp, and since that time, their program has plunged. With the appointment of Steve Alford as their coach, replacing Ben Howland, the Bruins have shown signs of revival, but they could not sustain the improvements realized in their 2014 season (0.2 ppp) and slipped to about 0.125 ppp in 2015. Their trend is falling, and the trend indicates a 2016 performance level of about 0.10 ppp. 2016 will be the beginning of the end for Steve Alford unless he can buck this trend and demonstrate his ability to restore the Bruins to the national conversation with ANE values of 0.2 ppp or higher for successive seasons.
The Bruins not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during this decade. In 2014, and the Bruins came close, but have not claimed the title in this decade.
The Kentucky out of conference record for 2015-16 will be defined by the Cats' ability to beat these five opponents. They play Louisville at Rupp; they play Ohio State and Duke on neutral courts; and the Cats travel to play Kansas in the Allen Field House and UCLA in Pauley Pavilion.
Other nonconference programs have played, and will play a role in the championship race in 2016, and beyond, just as many of them have done over the decade used for these trends. Among them are Arizona, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Baylor, Gonzaga, Maryland, Michigan State, Syracuse, and North Carolina.
Lute Olsen left Iowa for the deserts of Arizona and built that Wildcat program into a national championship team, culminating with their championship in 1997. However, Coach Olsen was not able to sustain the program at a championship level, and after about a decade or so, and personal health issues, Coach Olson let the program pass to Sean Miller. Miller has lifted the Arizona program back to the national stage, and in 2015, Arizona was one of the 4 programs regarded throughout the season as capable of winning the championship. The 2015 Arizona Wildcats ended the season with a commanding ANE slightly below 0.3 ppp. Miller's leadership has placed the program in a clear rising trend, and in 2016, at 0.24 ppp, the Wildcats will continue to command attention.
The Wildcats equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 2 of the last 10 seasons, in 2014 and 15. The Wildcats have not claimed the title in this decade.
Bo Ryan's Wisconsin program has been hanging around the edges of the national conversation for years, but Messers Dekker and Kaminsky each stayed around for senior seasons that allowed the Badgers to legitimately content for a championship in 2015 after a final four appearance as Juniors in 2014. Overall, Wisconsin has a rising trend, but it is doubtful based on this decade of performance that the Badgers will return to the final four stage again in 2016. The trend however suggests a 2016 ANE of about 0.27 ppp which will keep them in the national championship conversation, if not a finalist. Wisconsin coach, Bo Ryan, has announced that the 2015-16 season will be last at Wisconsin, bringing his tenure to a close at 15 years.
The Badgers equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 3 of the last 10 seasons, in 2011, 14 and 15. The Badgers have not claimed the title in this decade.
Connecticut has won the championship twice during the previous decade, 2011 and 2014, but neither of those teams were the bests UConn put on the floor during the decade, and none of these 10 UConn teams broke through the 0.3 ppp threshhold for championship quality play. In each of their championship runs, their team got red hot in March and navigated through the NCAA field. These championship teams define the exception to the 0.3 ppp rule. Overall, the Huskies are in decline, defined by cyclic patterns of peaks and valleys with declining peaks and deepening valleys. The 2015 valley is the lowest of the decade, and the trend indicates an ANE for 2016 of about 0.125 ppp.
The Huskies equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 2 of the last 10 seasons, in 2011 and 14. The Huskies claimed the title in each of these seasons.
Baylor emerged on the national scene during the decade of this trend analysis. From 2006 through 2010, the Bears' ANE climbed annually to a peak of about 0.24 ppp in 2010. However, despite recruits that earned a lot of ink, the Bears have bumped around between 0.15 and 0.20 ppp since their best year in 2010. This decade continues to define a rising trend line, and based on that trend line, look for the Bears to break that 0.2 ppp recent ceiling and challenge for a program best efficiency in the near future. 2016 could be the first step back up to the national conversation.
The Bears not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Bears have not claimed the title in this decade.
Gonzaga has long been the darling of the talking heads, especially when March arrives, and visions of Cinderella occupy their attention. However, the best Gonzaga teams (2013 and 2015) at about 0.24 to 0.25 ppp have not been able to break through in the tournament to earn a final four appearance. Nevertheless, the Bulldogs' trend is rising, and this should be sufficient to keep their March fortunes in the conversation for a few more years.
The Bulldogs not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Bulldogs have not claimed the title in this decade.
For some reason, many basketball pundits regard the 2016 Maryland Terapins as the preseason favorite to win a national championship. There is nothing in their pedigree of the last decade to justify that confidence. Maryland's best two seasons during this decade were 2007 and 2010 when their teams ended those seasons with an ANE of about 0.20 ppp. The last three teams have languished between 0.12 and 0.13 ppp, and the Terapins' trend is slightly down, suggesting a 0.1 ppp for 2016. If the Terapins do indeed challenge for a championship in 2016, it will be on the heels of one of the most dramatic single season improvements in my memory.
The Terrapins not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Terrapins have not claimed the title in this decade.
Tom Izzo has had his Spartan teams in the conversation in late March as often as any coach over the past decade. However, Michigan State has not taken home the trophy in April during the 10 year trend period. The Spartans' best season in this period was 2012 when it finished the season at 0.25 ppp. The Spartans have earned a rising trend that projects an ANE of about 0.22 ppp for 2016. That should be sufficient to keep Coach Izzo and his team in the national conversation for another season.
The Spartans equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 1 of the last 10 seasons, and the Spartans have not claimed the title in this decade.
Syracuse is a very interesting case to study. Overall, they have established a rising trend with their play over the last decade, but they have been unable to win a championship because their highest ANE was about 0.24 ppp in 2010 and 2012. Since 2012, the Orangemen have been in a free fall, possibly influenced by NCAA investigations, allegations, and now penalties against their program. Syracuse ended 2015 below 0.1 ppp, and given their enforcement issues, the trend line analysis probably has the least applicability for the Orangemen than any other program.
The Orangemen not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Orangemen have not claimed the title in this decade.
North Carolina claims one of the 10 championships claimed during this decade, in 2009, which also corresponds to UNC's best ANE of the period, slightly below the 0.3 ppp championship thresshold. However, since 2009, the North Carolina fortunes have become unclear. Rocked by allegations of academic fraud including allegations that Coach Roy Williams was aware of the fraudulent practices, the program has floundered, at least my UNC standards. They are trending down, and while many observers believe the 2016 Tar Heels can contend for the championship, the trends suggest otherwise, and the distractions that the impending NCAA penalties can have on a program are well knows among the Big Blue Nation. UNC may beat the 2016 trend value of about 0.15 ppp, but I doubt that they can improve upon their performance levels of the last 6 seasons to truly contend for the championship.
The Tar Heels equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 1 of the last 10 seasons, and the Tar Heels claimed the title that season.
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE:
Since Adolph Rupp defined basketball for a nation, and dominated the south, the Kentucky basketball program has been the gold standard, in fact the only standard, for the Southeastern Conference. Over the years, other SEC programs have stepped forward to challenge the Cats for a relatively brief period of time. In the 1950, Babe McCarthy's Mississippi Bulldogs claimed that role. In the 1960s, Ray Mears found the keys along with Coach Skinner at Vanderbilt. Tennessee continued as the primary challenger in the 1970s with Ray Mears landing the Ernie and Bernie show. In the 1970s, Coach Dale Brown began to command the second fiddle role at LSU, and moving into the 1980s, Coach Brown continued to be a pest to the Kentucky dominance. Also in the 1980s, CM Newton emerged at Alabama, and lifted the Crimson Tide into a challenger role. In the 1990s, the primary challenge from the Cats had to be Nolan Richardson's Razorback teams, but after a couple of final four trips, drifted back into the pack. Over the last 15 years, Florida has filled the role with Billy Donovan showing the Gators how to win in a big way in college basketball.
Each of these challengers had a strong head coach, and when each of those coaching tenures ended, those programs slipped back down into the muddy middle of SEC basketball. A few weeks ago, Coach Donovan resigned at Florida to move into the NBA. There can be little doubt that the Gators are destined to a similar fate over the next 1 to 4 years. Who will emerge next to provide a reasonable challenge to Kentucky's dominance of the SEC? Arkansas is on the rise again with Coach Anderson, a Nolan Richardson protege. LSU is making noise again with a top 10 recruiting class coming to campus for the 2015-16 season. Bruce Pearl has appeared at Auburn, and some believe his winning ways will be contageous and take hold at Auburn. Mississippi State has hired Ben Howland (see above re UCLA) and their fan base is convinced that Ben is the second coming and will deliver their program from the depths of despair to championship form. Vanderbilt has the dean of SEC coaches, Kevin Stallings, and he has produced some strong teams during his tenure. Who will be next? We should know the answer in about 3 seasons.
The SEC teams boast decade trends just as the national programs. However, save Florida, none have been worthy of the national conversation.
Florida won back to back championships in 2006 and 2007, but since that time, their program plunged the next 3 seasons before slowing climbing back up to national respectability, and another final four appearance in 2014. However, the Gators had major problems in 2015, and following the season, Coach Donovan resigned. Overall, the Gators have been in decline for a decade since winning their championships. Look for the rate of their decline to increase over the next few seasons. In 2016, the current trend suggests an ANE of 0.175 ppp, but I will be surprised if 2016 ends with a positive value overall.
The Gators equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 3 of the last 10 seasons, 2006, 07 and 14, and the Gators claimed the title twice in this decade.
Arkansas slipped from national prominence following their back to back final fours and one championship under Nolan Richardson's leadership in the 1990s. When the Razorbacks hired former UK All-American, and Billy Donovan protege John Pelphrey to lead the Hogs, their program slipped even further rather than climbing back into a national conversation. The Hog faithful finally showed Pelphry the door and brought in Mike Anderson in hopes of capturing the 1990s magic that Nolan Richardson had delivered. Mike Anderson has elevated the Hog play three seasons in a row, but the 0.14 ppp in 2015 is not sufficient to put the Hogs into the SEC conversation, much less the national conversation. Despite these recent improvements, the decade trend is still declining. However, I fully expect Mike Anderson will reverse that trend to a positive one. Whether he can left the performance to 0.2 ppp or higher levels remains to be seen.
The Razorbacks have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Razorbacks have not competed for a title in this decade.
LSU like Arkansas continues to show a declining trendline, but in recent years, their coach has used recruiting successes to bring improvements from negative numbers in 2010 and 2011 to increasing positive numbers the last 4 seasons. The Tiger 2015 recruiting class is top 10 nationally, and some national observers are taking note of the improvements in Baton Rouge. However, despite their success of the last 4 years, the Tigers still languish at a performance level below the Razorbacks, and to earn a spot in the national conversation in March instead of the off season, the Tigers must transform their 0.10 ppp and 0.12 ppp of 2014 and 2015 into numbers above 0.20 ppp. Until that occurs in at least consecutive seasons, the Tigers will remain a curious footnote of SEC basketball.
The Tigers have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Tigers have not competed for a title in this decade.
Kevin Stallings had the Vanderbilt Commodores knocking on NCAA doors for legitimate standing as a team capable of a deep March run, at least until 2013. Following his best season, 2012, deep roster losses caused his team's performance to plummet to about 0.05 ppp where is languished for 2013 and 2014. In 2015, the team did show signs of new life, with an increase to about 0.13 ppp. As with the others in the SEC who would like to step in and fill the primary challenger role that Billy Donovan's exit is creating, unless Coach Stallings can exceed his best season in Nashville on a regular basis, Vanderbilt will not be the new challenger.
The Commodores have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Commodores have not competed for a title in this decade.
When Mark Fox arrived in Athens, Georgia, many regarded him capable of leading the Bulldogs back to the NCAA quality teams that Hugh Durham and Tubby Smith once had delivered. Coach Fox has established a rising trend for his Bulldog program, and the team efficiency has increased in each of the last two seasons. However, the 0.12 ppp left by their 2015 squad is the high water mark, matching Georgia's previous high efficiency of 2007 and slightly exceeding the previous cycle peak in 2011. It seems that a 0.11 to 0.12 ppp peak every 4 years is their pattern, and based on that trend, look for 2016 to return toward the next valley of the cycle, failing to break past the 0.10 ppp level.
The Bulldogs have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Bulldogs have not competed for a title in this decade.
Mississippi, like Georgia, has established a cyclic pattern except Mississippi's cycle has a 3 year period instead of Georgia's 4 year period. Peaks occurred in 2007 (0.13 ppp), 2010 (0.13 ppp), and 2013 (0.15 ppp). Look for Ole Miss to hit its stride again in 2016, perhaps posting another high water make in excess of 2013's 0.15 ppp. Ole Miss has a rising trend line.
The Rebels have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Rebels have not competed for a title in this decade.
At one time, South Carolina posed a legitimate threat to any UK team. As recently as 2010, the Gamecocks managed to stop #1 and undefeated UK team in Columbia. However, the Gamecock trend is steeply downward despite Coach Frank Martin's influence that produced improvements in 2014 and 2015. However, those back to back improvements do not elevate this program into the conference conversation. A long way to go to reach that goal.
The Gamecocks have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Gamecocks have not competed for a title in this decade.
The remainder of the SEC are in poor condition, basketball wise. Tennessee will have its 3rd coach in 3 seasons. Missouri is in free fall. Texas A&M has been in steady decline since Kentucky pulled Billy Gillispie from College Station following the 2007 season. Mississippi State has not recovered from the destruction of their once proud program by Richard Williams (now an assistant at TAMU), but hope springs eternal in Starkville with the hiring of former UCLA coach Ben Howland. Auburn hopes Bruce Pearl can show the Tigers basketball on par with Chuck Person and Charles Barkley days. Alabama is similarly couched in hope with a new coach preparing for his first SEC season. These trend charts are provided below without further commentary.
The Volunteers equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during 1 of the last 10 seasons, and the Volunteers did not win a title in this decade.
The Tigers have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Tigers have not competed for a title in this decade.
The Aggies have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Aggies have not competed for a title in this decade.
The Bulldogs have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Bulldogs have not competed for a title in this decade.
The Tigers have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Tigers have not competed for a title in this decade.
The Crimson Tide have not equalled or exceeded the National Champion's ANE during any of the last 10 seasons, and the Crimson Tide have not competed for a title in this decade.
The above data is presented in the next series of tables providing more detail in two respects. First, the tables examine more categories of statistics, and second, the data is sorted based on the following factors, in the order shown below:
1. Pace values will be lower, by the number of offensive rebounds.
2. Efficiencies will be higher due to the lower number of total possessions
3. Turnover rates will be higher due to the lower number of possessions.
CHECK OUT THESE OTHER ANALYTICAL WRITINGS
Change in Position on Definition of Possessions
Do Objective Performance Measures Like ANE
Account For Intangible?
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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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