BIG BLUE FANS FOR
2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
On Saturday, Kentucky will play its fifth SEC road game out of its first 7 conference games of the season. After this trip to Gainesville to face the Gators, the Cats will have 10 SEC games remaining in the regular season, and 6 of those 10 games will occur at Rupp.
The Cats continue their current 2 game road trip after delivering a poleaxing at Vanderbilt on Tuesday. The 35-point road win is the most efficient game by the Cats this season, and over their last 5 games, this team has played four of its 7 most efficient games of the season. This is prima facia evidence that this team has been taking its game to a new high level over the last 5 games. The Cats have started the SEC with an impressive 6-1 record despite the majority of the games having been on the road.
Saturday's game will be Florida's fifth SEC home game in their first 8 games, and the Gators' SEC record is 4-3, and 12-8 overall. The Gators' most impressive win this season occurred on Wednesday when they defeated #41 Mississippi in Gainesville by 4 points in overtime. Florida's most confusing loss occurred by 2 points to #112 South Carolina in Gainesville. While Kentucky has been on fire their last 5 games, the Gators have been playing slightly below their season long average efficiency their last 5 games.
The Gators' schedule has a SOS value of 0.0814 ppp (#21). The Florida ANE for the season stands at 0.195 ppp and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.184 ppp.
The Cats' schedule has a SOS value of 0.0577 ppp (#41). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.258 ppp, their season ANE since game 8 has been 0.358 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.438 ppp.
The ANE analysis based on Kentucky's ANE since game 7 indicates a Kentucky margin of 7 points, 74-67, in a game played at a pace of 67 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates a 2-point Kentucky advantage (78-69), and a “last 5” analysis indicates a UK win by 13 points, 73-60. Pomeroy has this game as 2 points in Kentucky's favor, 64-62, at a pace of 64 possessions. Vegas has opened with the Cats a 2 ½ point favorite over the Gators.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
Coach Calipari stays with Ashton Hagans, Reid Travis, PJ Washington, Keldon Johnson, and Tyler Herro to start the 18 th game of this season. Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards, E. J. Montgomery, and Jemarl Baker will come off the bench.
Florida controls the opening tip and waste no time getting to the rim for a layup. After the Gators move out to an early 5 point lead, 7-2, the Cats catch up at 7, and again at 9. The Gators' second 3 pointer, and a UK turnover takes the game to the under 16 media time out with the Gators leading 12-9 and set for a pair of free throws. In the second segment, the Gators maintained their early 2 to 4 point lead, and lead by 4, 17-13, at the under 12 media time out with 10:33 remaining in the first half, and the Cats in possession.
In a short 3 rd segment, the Cats pulled to within a points, 17-16, on Tyler Herro's second 3 point basket of the game. At the under 8 media time out, the Gators lead by 1, 17-16. After the time out the Cats take their first lead of the game, 18-17 on a baseline power shot by P J Washington. The teams traded 1 point leads until Florida hit back to back 3 pointers to move back on top by 3 pionts, 29-26, at the under 4 media time out with only 1:37 left and the Gators set for a pair of free throws.
The pair of free throws pushes the lead back to a game high 5 points. Following an empty trip, the gtrs move on top by 7. Immanuel Quickley stops the 7-point Gators run with a 3 pointer from the left corner. The Gators use a timeout with 25 seconds left in the first half but fail to call a scoring play. The Gators lead at the half by 4, 33-29.
The Cats scored 29 points on 32 possessions, 0.906 points per possession, and FLORIDA managed their 32 points on 33 possessions 1.000 ppp. The Cats made 35.3% of their first half shots, including 3-14 from outside the arc. FLORIDA managed to make 43.3% of their first half shots, including 4-10 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 2-2 free throws (100.0%) and FLORIDA made 3-5 (60.0%).
Kentucky committed 5 turnover to 5 by the Gators.
On the Boards, the Cats controlled the glass 23-18 overall, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 8-4. However, Florida outscored Kentucky 4-2 on second chance points. The Cats secured 36.4% of their misses and allowed FLORIDA to grab 21.1% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Kentucky opens the second half with a miss, but the Gators also fail to score on their first possession. After Reid Travis trims the lead to 2 points, the Gators get a layup and a 3 pointer off a fast break to move back on top by the game high 7 points, forcing an early time out by Coach Calipari with the Cats down 38-31 and 17:15 left in the game. After the time out, neither team scores over the balance of the opening segment. The Gators lead by 7, 38-31 at the under 16 media time out with 15:35 left in the game and the Gators in possession. After the time out, the gtrs extend their lead to 9 points, 40-31. After a UK turnover, the Gators move out to their first double digit lead, 42-31. P J Washington stops the Gators' run at 9 points with 1 of 2 from the line, and E J Montgomery grabbed the offensive rebound and Keldon Johnson scored on the second chance to trim the lead from 11 to 8. After a Gators' miss, Keldon Johnson makes a 3 pointer to trim the lead to 5, 42-37, and Florida takes a timeout with 11:44 left in the game.
In the third segment, the Cats trim the lead to 1 point on two occasions, the last time at 44-43, but when UK fouls a 3 point shooter and he makes 2 of 3 free throws, the Gators lead stretches to 3, 46-43 at the under 8 media time out and the Gators are in possession. After the time out, the Gators go back on top by 5, but the Cats score 7 in a row to take a 2 point lead with 4:41 left, and the Gators take a timeout. The Cats continue their run to a 12-0 run to take a 7 point lead, 55-48, and the Cats will be at the line for the bonus after the under 4 media time out with 2:24 left in the game.
The free throws by Immanuel Quickley extends the run to 14-0 and the lead to 9 points. Florida stops the run with a basket. After Ashton Hagans makes a pair of free throws to extend the UK lead to 11 points, Florida scores to trim it to 9 and burns their last time out of the game with 37 seconds left.
UK scored its 65 points on 63 possessions (1.032 ppp) for the game, and FLORIDA scored its 54 points on 63 possessions (0.857 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 46-34, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards with a rebounding edge 14-12. Kentucky won the second chance point battle 10-8. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.730 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.873 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.714 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 38.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert 27.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 13-16 (81.3%]. FLORIDA made 5-10 [50.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 23-56 overall [41.1%] and 6-21 from long range [28.6%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 17-44 [38.6%] and from long range, FLORIDA hit 5-18 [27.8%].
The Cats committed 12 turnovers, one for every 5.2 possessions. The Cats forced 9 FLORIDA turnovers, one for every 7.0 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: Tuesday evening against South Carolina at Rupp for the twenty second regular season game and the 9 th game of the 2019 SEC season.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks