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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
23
Cats Return To Rupp and Face South Carolina On A Roll
The Cats have not just won seven in a row since losing at Alabama, they have done so in a most impressive manner. Saturday's come from behind win at Florida was just as impressive as the 35 point walloping the Cats handed Vanderbilt a week ago in Nashville, and just as impressive as the three consecutive wins over top 25 opponents that preceded this latest 2 game road swing through Music City and the new Alligator Alley.
The Cats' recent achievement have not gone unrewarded, as the Cats returned to the top 5 ranking in both major wire service poll this week. While I do not usually subscribe to the opinions expressed in the polls over the less emotional ratings generated by analytics, especially net game efficiency, in this instance, I believe the top 5 ranking is more accurate than the #9 rating currently reported at kenpom.com or produced from my own ANE ratings. The reason is that poll voters tend to give greater weight to recent developments and reduce the weight assigned to the total body of work, and this year for this UK team, that weighting difference makes complete sense because of the Cats' pathetic start over its first 6 games as compared to its accomplishment since game 7.
Tuesday night, the Cats will host South Carolina in the 22 nd game and 9 th SEC game for each team this season. The Cats enter 7-1 while the Gamecocks come to Rupp sporting a 6-2 SEC record. Other than this curios similarity, nothing else about these two teams are closely similar. The Cats' overall record is 18-3 while the Gamecocks are 10-10 against D1 opponents. In the non-conference portion of the schedule, South Carolina finished 4-8. The wins came at the expense of #325 USC Upstate by 13,#254 Norfolk State by 17, #253 George Washington by 35, and #139 Coastal Carolina by 6. The Gamecocks lost non-conference games to #163 Stony Brook by 2, to #316 Wyoming by 9, and #87 Providence by 9.
Yes, South Carolina has recorded 6 SEC wins since the beginning of the year, including a 2 point win at #33 Florida. However, the overall quality of South Carolina's play has been lacking for the entire season, and currently stands at 0.072 ppp following the first 21 games. Even USC's 5 game moving average ANE currently is 0.084 ppp. Recall, Big Blue Fans, that the Cats' dismal start to this season had a 5 game ANE value higher than either of these USC measures.
The Gamecocks' schedule has a SOS value of 0.0875 ppp (#18). The South Carolina ANE for the season stands at 0.072 ppp and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.084 ppp.
The Cats' schedule has a SOS value of 0.0685 ppp (#33). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.277 ppp, their season ANE since game 7 has been 0.360 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.439 ppp.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/22.htm
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
Game Summary:
Coach Calipari stays with Ashton Hagans, Reid Travis, PJ Washington, Keldon Johnson, and Tyler Herro to start the 18 th game of this season. Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards, E. J. Montgomery, and Jemarl Baker will come off the bench.
South Carolina controls the opening tip and wastes no time getting on the board. After the Cats move on top 4-2, South Carolina makes a 3 pointer to regain the lead. The Cats close out the scoring in the opening segment to lead 8-5 at the under 16 media time out, but use will have a pair of free throws after the break. The second segment belonged to South Carolina with 2-2 from outside the arc and 2-4 inside the arc and 2-2 from the line to move on top by 3, 17-13, at the under 12 media time out. Reid Travis will be at the line for a pair of free throws after this break.
In the third segment, the Cats pulled even, 22-22 at the under 8 media time out with 7:32 left in the first half and South Carolina in possession of the ball. Kentucky has negated strong shooting by South Carolina with strong board work and a 4-0 advantage in second chance points. In the fourth segment, the Cats fell behind by 2 points again, but scored the next 7 points to lead by 5, 29-24, and South Carolina takes a timeout with 4:13 left in the first half to find a way to stop this Kentucky run.
The Cats close out the first half by extending their lead to a game high 11 points, 39-28 at the half. After trailing 13-17, the Cats outscored South Carolina 26-11 over the final 12 minutes of the first half, and 17-4 over the final 7 minutes.
The Cats scored 39 points on 35 possessions, 1.114 points per possession, and SOUTH CAROLINA managed their 28 points on 35 possessions 0.800 ppp. The Cats made 45.2% of their first half shots, including 3-9 from outside the arc. SOUTH CAROLINA managed to make 45.8% of their first half shots, including 4-7 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 8-11 free throws (72.7%) and SOUTH CAROLINA made 2-7 (28.0%).
Kentucky committed 8 turnover to 10 by the Gamecocks.
On the Boards, the Cats controlled the glass 24-12 overall, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 10-3. Kentucky also won the second chance points 7-2. The Cats secured 52.6% of their misses and allowed SOUTH CAROLINA to grab 17.6% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Second Half:
South Carolina opens the second half with the first 4 points to trim the lead to 7 points. But the Cats answer with 1 of 2 free throws by Reid Travis, a basket by Tyler Herro and
4-4 from the line to move on top by 14, 46-32 at the under 16 media time out. In the second segment, the Cats extended their lead to 16, 51-35 at the under 12 media time out.
In an extended 3 rd segment, the Cats extend their lead to 24 points, 62-38, at the under 8 media time out with 6:42 left in the game. In a short 4 th segment, the Cats extend their lead to 27 points, 67-40, at the under 4 media time out.
Cats win 76-48.
Analysis:
UK scored its 76 points on 68 possessions (1.118 ppp) for the game, and SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 48 points on 71 possessions (0.676 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 51-27, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards with a rebounding edge 21-9. Kentucky won the second chance point battle 18-7. SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.578 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.779 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 0.853 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 21 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 53.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to convert 23.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 21-27 (77.8%]. SOUTH CAROLINA made 5-14 [35.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-61 overall [41.0%] and 5-16 from long range [31.3%]. For SOUTH CAROLINA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-36 [38.9%] and from long range, SOUTH CAROLINA hit 5-17 [29.4%].
The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 4.9 possessions. The Cats forced 19 SOUTH CAROLINA turnovers, one for every 3.7 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: Saturday afternoon against Mississippi State at Starkville for the twenty third regular season game and the 10 th game of the 2019 SEC season.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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