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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
38
Cats Get P J Washington Back Just In Time To Advance Past Houston To Elite 8
In the last game of the NCAA Sweet 16 last night, the Cats had one of their strongest offensive halves of the season in the first half against one of the best defensive teams in the country on their way to an 11 point halftime lead. However, Houston's defense was much more effective in the second half, and the Cats required some heroic plays in the last minute to overcome a late 3 point Houston lead and secure a 4 point victory.
It is not possible to say enough about the overall game performances turned in by several of these Cats, including Reid Travis, Immanuel Quickley, Tyler Herro, and P J Washington. Yes, P J Washington suited up, and when he entered the game at the first media time out the Cats trailed Houston by a point, 7-6. P J Washington made his presence known almost immediately, and the entire tenor of the game seemed to changed instantly. While his performance through the game was soothing to the eyes of the Big Blue Nation who had been grieving his loss for over 10 days, his end of game heroics sealed the deal for me on his worthiness in the greatest program in the land.
The final 90 seconds of the game started with the Cat trailing the Cougars by a point, and Reid Travis turning the ball over to Houston who converted the basket to move on top by 3 points, 58-55 with 76 seconds left. Coach Calipari used a time out with 65 seconds remaining and out of the time out, the Cats worked the ball to P J Washington on the left baseline. P J Washington made a twisting, contested jump shot and was fouled in the process. While P J Washington missed his free throw that would have knotted the score again with 55 seconds left, he quickly redeemed himself at the defensive end with an outstanding block of a Corey Davis jump shot with 34 seconds left, and Tyler Herro grabbed the rebound, and after the Cats advanced the ball into their offensive court, Keldon Johnson passed the ball back to Tyler Herro outside the arc near the left wing and Tyler Herro put the Cats up by 2 with 25 seconds left. When the Cougars missed their jump shot that would have tied the score again with 17 seconds left, Ashton Hagans grabbed the rebound, passed it quickly to Tyler Herro who was fouled with 13 seconds left. Tyler Herro calmly made both free throws to seal the victory.
Now, Coach Calipari's Cats advance to the Elite 8 for the 7 th time in his 10 year tenure as the leader of this program where they will face a familiar opponent, the Auburn Tigers coached by Bruce Pearl. The Calipari-Pearl rivalry predates Coach Calipari's time at UK and Pearl's time at Auburn, and I doubt that either has the other on their personal Christmas Card lists. This season, these teams have played twice already with the Cats besting the Tigers by 2 points at Auburn and the Cats destroying the Tigers by 27 points at Rupp Arena on February 23.
Since that February encounter at Rupp Arena, Auburn has not lost, stringing together 11 consecutive wins in a most impressive manner, including last night's easy handling of the #1 seed North Carolina by 17 points. Furthermore, since the Cats destroyed Auburn on February 23, the Cats have won 7 but lost twice to Tennessee, a team that Pearl's Tigers have defeated twice during its current 11 game win streak.
As we all know, the Cats have been struggling to overcome the loss of key players due to injury since Februay 19, when Reid Travis sprained a knee, and then as soon as Reid Travis was able to return, P J Washington sprained a foot, taking him out of action for the first 2 games of the NCAA Tournament. Last night, the Cats were as close to full strength as they have been since early February, and in a strange twist of fate, last night Auburn lost one of its best players to what appeared to be a serious knee injury when Chua Okeke went down under his own basket with about 8 minutes left in their game.
Auburn brings a 29-9 record into this game. Auburn has earned its 29-9 record against a schedule with a SOS value of 0.1132 ppp (#19). Furthermore, Auburn's ANE for the season stands at an impressive 0.258 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.412 ppp.
The Cats' schedule has a SOS value of 0.1087 ppp (#21). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.284 ppp, their season ANE since game 7 has been 0.325 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.345 ppp.
Even though the Cats have notched two victories over Auburn this season, Auburn is a dangerous opponent. As I have noted recently with respect to players that will be missing from the Kentucky lineup due to injury, this analysis has no capacity to account for the impact that missing players may have. That is also true with respect to Okeke's status for Sunday's game. With that in mind, the ANE analysis based on Kentucky's ANE since game 7 and Auburn's ANE indicates a Kentucky margin of 4 points, 75-71, in a game played at a pace of 68 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates a 1 1/2 point Kentucky advantage and a “last 5” analysis indicates an Auburn advantage of 4 ½ points. Pomeroy sees this as a 2 point advantage for Kentucky, 73-71, and Vegas gives Kentucky the edge by 3 points.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/37.htm
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
Game Summary:
In the Sweet 16, Coach Calipari held P J Washington out until the first media time out, but over the next 36 minutes of action, P J Washington was on the floor 26 minutes and only committed 2 personal fouls. Furthermore, P J Washington's presence on the floor in the final 2 minutes probably were instrumental in the Cats' advancing to this Elite 8. In recent big games, prior to his injury, P J Washington had routinely committed 2 early fouls and played limited minutes as a result.
While there has not yet been official work I cannot imagine Kentucky starting this game with P J Washington on the bench, that may be a nice strategic move to let the officials get their game legs before P J Washington is subjected to the vagaries of the early whistles. Coach Calipari decides to stay with E J Montgomery joining Reid Travis, Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Ashton Hagans. P J Washington, Nick Richards, Immanuel Quickley, and Jemarl Baker will provide reserve support from the bench.
Auburn controls the opening tip and misses their first 6 shots as the Cats move on top 7-0. Auburn finally gets on the board with a 3 point basket. The Cats finish the opening segment with a 6 point lead, 9-3 at the under 16 media time out and in possession of the ball. During the break, P J Washington and Immanuel Quickley entered the game. In the second segment, Auburn trims the lead to 4 points twice, last at 11-7, but Immanuel Quickley and then Tyler Herro make back to back 3 pointers around an Auburn turnover to move on top by 10 points, 17-7, at the under 12 media time out.
In the third segment, Auburn trims the lead to 6 with a layup and a pair of free throws. The Cats move back on top by 11 with 3 of 4 from the line and a powerful layup by P J Washington to lead 22-11. Auburn trims the lead to 9, 22-13, at the under 8 media time out. In the 4 th segment, Auburn trimmed the lead to 5, 22-17, but the Cats moved back on top by 9, 27-18, at the under 4 media time out.
After the Cats move out to a 10 point lead, 30-20, Jemarl Baker fouls a 3 point shooter for a 4 point play by Auburn. Auburn cuts the Kentucky lead to 2, 32-30 before Ashton Hagans makes a 3 point shot to close the first half scoring with Kentucky on top 35-30.
The Cats scored 35 points on 32 possessions, 1.094 points per possession, and AUBURN managed their 30 points on 33 possessions 0.909 ppp. The Cats made 45.8% of their first half shots, including 4-14 from outside the arc. AUBURN managed to make 36.7% of their first half shots, including 3-11 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 9-13 free throws (69.2%) and AUBURN was 5-8 (62.5%) from the line in the first half.
Kentucky committed 6 turnovers to 4 by the Auburn.
On the Boards, the Cats won the glass 20-15 overall, but Auburn won the offensive glass 5-4. Auburn won the second chance points 2-0. The Cats secured 28.6% of their misses and allowed AUBURN to grab 23.8% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Second Half:
Kentucky opens the second half with move out to a 7 point lead with a second chance basket but Auburn gets a pair of free throws, a 3 pointer off a turnover, and 3 free throws on a 3 point attempt after another Kentucky turnover. After making the first 2, Auburn bets the offensive rebound and drains a 3 pointer from the left corner to complete a 5 point trip to a 40-37 lead, their first of the game. The Tigers lead by 3, 42-39 at the under 16 media time out. In the second segment, the Cats clawed back to a 2 point lead, 46-44, but Auburn's 6 th 3 pointer of the game, and 3 rd of the second half lifted Auburn back on top by 1 point, 47-46 at the under 12 media time out.
In the third segment, Reid Travis missed a free throw that could have tied the score at 51-51, but after the miss, Auburn drained their 7 th 3 pointer to move on top by 4 points, 54-50 at the under 8 media time out. The Kentucky season is on the line, and will be determined by the next 7:44, and the Cats will have the ball when they begin to make a comeback from 4 points down. In the 4 th segment, Auburn moves on top by a game high 6 points, 56-50, but the Cats battle back to within 2 points, 58-56 at the under 4 media time out and Auburn in possession with 3:28 on the clock.
The Cats catch up at 58-58. After dry offensive trips by both teams, Auburn is forced to take a time out with 3 seconds left on the shot clock and 1:25 left in the game to avoid a turnover. After the time out, Coach Calipari observes the Auburn alignment and takes a time out to work on more specific defensive strategy. The Cats have 1 foul to give at this point. On the play, Auburn throws an airball from outside the arc. P J Washington scores a second chance basket to lift the Cats to a 2 point lead, 60-58 with 51 seconds left. Auburn takes a time out. Coach Calipari has two time out's remaining and Auburn has one left. The possession arrow favors the Cats.
Auburn scores to tie the game with 38 seconds left. Neither team can score in the last 38 seconds, and this game goes to overtime.
Auburn controls the tip and Auburn misses their shot. P J Washington missed the front end, and Auburn scores to move into the lead by 2 points. After a turnover, Auburn scores again to move on top by 4, 64-60 with 3:38 left in the overtime. Coach Calipari takes a time out. Cats lose 77-71 and the season ends in the Elite 8 with a record of 30-7.
Analysis:
UK scored its 71 points on 74 possessions (0.959 ppp) for the game, and AUBURN scored its 77 points on 74 possessions (1.041 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 41-37, and Auburn won the battle of the offensive boards with a rebounding edge 12-11. Kentucky won the second chance points 9-7. AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 0.946 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.583 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.838 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.818 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 30.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN was able to convert 28.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK made 12-21 (57.1%) from the free throw line in this game. AUBURN made 18-24 [75.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 27-61 overall [44.3%] and 5-21 from long range [23.8%]. For AUBURN, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 19-42 [45.2%] and from long range, AUBURN hit 7-23 [30.4%].
The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 5.3 possessions. The Cats forced 9 AUBURN turnovers, one for every 8.2 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: This closes the season for the Cats with a 30-7 record.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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