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2018-19 Season Analytical Writings
37
Cats Advance To Sweet 16 Without P J Washington.
Will the Cats Have To Face Houston Without Him?
The Cats survived the first weekend of this tournament by easily handling Abilene Christian and getting past Wofford in a hard fought battle without the services of P J Washington for either game. Now the Cats advance to the Sweet 16 where they will face a very strong Houston team. The big question hanging over the program, and on the minds of the entirety of the Big Blue Nation is whether P J Washington will return to the floor on Friday when the Cats tip it off against Houston.
The information from inside the program has been minimal thus far this week. Apparently, the doctor would remove the cast on Tuesday to determine if he can walk and move without pain. However, as of this writing, I have not heard any verification that the doctor removed the cast, much less the results of any examination of his pain level. I have read that Seth Greenburg believes P J Washington will return to action, but even that assertion seems cloaked in little or no helpful information. Why does this program insist on withholding this information from the Big Blue Nation?
This year's sweet 16 is the first time that all of the top 12 seeded teams have advanced past the first weekend together Furthermore, and from my perspective, the most telling aspect of this year's Sweet 16 is it includes the top 14 most efficient teams in the land, and the other two, per Pomeroy, are #18 LSU and #29 Oregon. There are no Cinderellas as we have seen emerge in so many of these tournaments. In my opinion, this is the probable consequence of the NCAA's abandonment of the insane RPI for seeding and moving toward an efficiency based system for seeding.
More than any previous year, there are no easy paths from this Sweet 16 to move forward to the promised land of college basketball. Each team must defeat two legitimate championship capable opponents this weekend to advance to Minneapolis. For Kentucky, it is Houston and with a win, on to face the winner of the Auburn-North Carolina Sweet 16 matchup.
For now, the only opponent of concern is Houston. With the fundamental question about P J Washington's availability still hanging over this game, the analysis is based upon P J being on the court for this game. Without him, the Kentucky offense struggled against Wofford, and if the Cats must face this Houston defense without him, the only way the Cats can beat Houston is to engage in and win an all-out defensive war because Houston's defense has been formidable and is likely to curtail the Cats' on their offensive end:
• #5 defense against 2 point shooting percentage, 42.7%: UK #7, 43.6%
• #1 defense against 3 point shooting percentage, 27.8%: UK #179, 34.4%
• #22 in percentage of shots blocked, 13.7%: UK #23, 13.7%
• #12 overall defensive efficiency, 0.913 points per possession: UK #8, 0.905 ppp
The Cats' defense matches up well against these Houston numbers in every category except defense against 3 point shooting, which has haunted this team for most of this season.
With P J Washington, the Cats' offense has been the 11 th most efficient in the country, at 1.182 points per possession. Houston's offense has been strong as well at #20, 1.154 ppp. The difference in this game, with or without P J Washington, will be determined by how much of the Cats' offensive production suffers against the Houston defense.
Houston brings a 33-3 record into this game. The Cougars' three losses have been at #81 Temple by 4 on January 9, to #45 UCF by 5 at home, and to #31 Cincinnati by 12 in the championship game of the AAC Tournament. Houston beat Sweet 16 members #20 LSU by 6 and #43 Oregon by 4, both at home in November and December.
Houston has earned its 33-3 record against a schedule with a SOS value of 0.0388 ppp (#77). Furthermore, Houston's ANE for the season stands at an impressive 0.245 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.266 ppp.
The Cats' schedule has a SOS value of 0.1047 ppp (#24). The Cats' ANE for the season stands at 0.288 ppp, their season ANE since game 7 has been 0.330 ppp, and their ANE over the last 5 games is 0.365 ppp.
This is a dangerous opponent for Kentucky when at full strength, and frankly my ANE analysis has no capacity to account for a missing player, especially one as important to the team as P J Washington. With that in mind, the ANE analysis based on Kentucky's ANE since game 7 and Houston's ANE indicates a Kentucky margin of 6 points, 76-70, in a game played at a pace of 68 possessions. As a matter of record, the traditional ANE analysis indicates a 3 point Kentucky advantage and a “last 5” analysis indicates a Kentucky advantage of 6 ½ points. Pomeroy sees this as a 2 point advantage for Kentucky, 68-66, and Vegas gives Kentucky the edge by 3 points.
Use the following link to see how other UK fans handicap this game at 247Sports, The Cats Pause message board:
http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2018-19DataandWritings/247_PREDICTIONS/36.htm
You can participate in the score prediction contest at 247Sports at the following link:
Game Summary:
Coach Calipari has been very secretive about the status of the Cats' leading scorer, P J Washington, and speculation about his availability for this Sweet 16 has spanned the spectrum from an absolute certainty that he will not play (Reece Davis) to confidence that he will dress out for the game and be available for limited minutes (DallasCat at 247Sports). Coach Calipari's most recent public comments prior to tonight have been that if he plays, it will be for a limited amount of time, and Coach Calipari also said he would not be surprised if P J Washington did not play at all. Just prior to the game, reports by the UK broadcast team indicate that P J Washington is not just dressed out, but moving about with a bounce in his step. P J Washington will be available to play in this game, but will not start. Coach Calipari stays with E J Montgomery joining Reid Travis, Keldon Johnson, Tyler Herro, and Ashton Hagans. P J Washington, Nick Richards, Immanuel Quickley, and Jemarl Baker will provide reserve support from the bench.
Houston controls the opening tip and makes a 3 point basket to start the game. The Cats battle back to a brief 4-3 lead, but Houston does not allow the Kentucky lead to stand for long, and leads by 1 point, 7-6, at the under 16 media time out. During the break, P J Washington makes his first appearance into the game. P J Washington scores quickly with a baseline hook shot. The Cats pull even, 10-10, at the under 12 media time out, and the Cats have possession.
In the early going, each team has attempted 5 shots, and the Cats have made 5 baskets to 4 baskets by Houston. However, the game is even because the Cats have committed 4 early turnovers to only 1 by Houston, and Houston has made the only 3 point basket of the game in the first 8 minutes. P J Washington returned to the bench during the media time out. P J Washington returns to the game at the 10 minute mark, and after the Cats take a 2 point lead on a pair of free throws by Reid Travis, P J Washington gets a dunk at the end of a fast break to extend the Cats' lead to 4 points. Houston takes a time out with 9:23 left in the first half, with the Cats on top 16-12. After the timeout, the Cats gets another defensive stop followed by the Cats' first 3 point basket of the game by Immanuel Quickley to extend the lead to 7 points. P J Washington made a jump shot from just inside the arc, and the Cats forced another turnover to gain possession, up by 7, 21-14, at the under 8 media time out. In the 4 th segment, Houston trimmed the 7 point lead to 3 points, 23-20, but the Cats went on a 7 point run consisting of a pair of free throws by P J Washington, a 3 point basket by Keldon Johnson, and a fast break layup off a Houston turnover by Tyler Herro to move on top by 10 points, forcing another Houston time out with 3:43 left and the Cats on top 30-20.
After the time out, Houston trims the lead to 6 on a pair of free throws followed by a jump shot basket in transition after a Kentucky missed shot. Coach Calipari takes a timeout with 3:05 left in the first half with the Cats leading by 6, 30-24. On the ensuing possession, the Cats turn it over on a shot clock violation. Cats stretch it out to a 13 point lead with about 30 seconds left, and Houston trims the lead to 11 at the half with a basket at the buzzer. Cats lead 37-26 at the half.
The Cats scored 37 points on 30 possessions, 1.233 points per possession, and HOUSTON managed their 26 points on 30 possessions 0.867 ppp. The Cats made 56.0% of their first half shots, including 3-7 from outside the arc. HOUSTON managed to make 43.5% of their first half shots, including 1-6 from outside the arc.
The Cats made 6-7 free throws (85.7%) and HOUSTON was 5-6 (83.3%) from the line in the first half.
Kentucky committed 6 turnovers to 5 by the Houston.
On the Boards, the Cats won the glass 18-7 overall, and Kentucky won the offensive glass 5-1. Kentucky won the second chance points 2-0. The Cats secured 45.5% of their misses and allowed HOUSTON to grab 7.1% of their misses as second chance opportunities.
Second Half:
Kentucky opens the second half with a basket to move back on top by 13, but Houston drains its second 3 point basket of the game to trim the lead to 10, and the Cats lead by 10, 41-31, at the under 16 media time out. In the second segment, the Cats allow Houston to claw back into the game with another 3 pointer and a second chance basket to trim the lead to 5 points, 43-38, and Coach Calipari takes a time out with 12:34 left in the game. In the first 7 ½ minutes of the second half, the Cats have only scored 6 points with 3-9 shooting while Houston has scored 12 points with 4-9 shooting including 2-4 from outside the arc and a pair of free throws. After the time out, the Cats get a basket to stop the Houston run with a pair of offensive rebounds before Nick Richards finally puts the ball into the basket to extend the lead to 7 points, 45-38, at the under 12 media time out with 11:37 left in the game.
Houston trims the lead to 4 points with another 3 point basket. After the Cats turn the ball over for the 10 th time and 11 th times, Houston cannot take advantage. Tyler Herro makes a jump shot from the right corner, just inside the arc to extend the Cats' lead to 6 points, 47-41 at the under 8 media time out with 7:24 left in the game and the Cats in possession of the ball. In the 4 th segment, Houston charged into a 2 point lead as the Cats drew 3 consecutive blacks from the free throw line, Tyler Herro missing the front end and P J Washington missing a pair while Houston made 3 of 6 from the floor including 2 for 5 from outside the arc to move on top by 2, 51-49, and Kentucky takes a time out with 3:25 left. This is the first Houston lead since they led 7-6 at the first media time out of the game.
Houston has now made 6 three point baskets in 17 attempts while the Cats have only made 3 on their 10 attempts. During the final segment, Houston extends its lead to 3 points on two occasions, lastly at 58-55. A pair of free throws by P J Washington, a defensive stop, and a 3 pointer by Tyler Herro lift the Cats into a 2 point lead, 60-58 with 25 seconds left. Houston used it last time out. When Houston lined up for their inbounds play, Coach Calipari uses Kentucky's last time out.
Houston misses, and Ashton Hagans gets the rebound and passes the ball to Tyler Herro who Houston fouls with 14 seconds left. Tyler Herro makes them both, and the Cats come back from down 3 in the last 2 minutes to win by 4, 62-58.
Analysis:
UK scored its 62 points on 59 possessions (1.051 ppp) for the game, and HOUSTON scored its 58 points on 58 possessions (1.000 ppp).
Kentucky won the battle of the boards 36-23, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards with a rebounding edge 11-8. Kentucky won the second chance points 10-8. HOUSTON had an offensive efficiency of 0.862 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.882 ppp on its 59 first chance possessions and 0.909 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 42.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while HOUSTON was able to convert 24.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK made 14-19 (73.7%) from the free throw line in this game. HOUSTON made 9-12 [75.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-46 overall [47.8%] and 4-12 from long range [33.3%]. For HOUSTON, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 14-33 [42.4%] and from long range, HOUSTON hit 7-20 [35.0%].
The Cats committed 14 turnovers, one for every 4.2 possessions. The Cats forced 7 HOUSTON turnovers, one for every 8.3 possessions.
Next Game On Schedule: The Cats will play SEC Foe Auburn on Sunday afternoon in the NCAA Elite 8.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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