2017 In The Books After 9 Games

For All Practical Purposes, 2017 Is “In The Books”
Now It Is Time For Focus on Resuming the Climb In 2018

Prior to this season, the UK football team anticipated a legitimate opportunity to accomplish a very special season if it could continue it ascent up the SEC totem pole with another incremental improvement on defense and offense. Those anticipated improvements indicated that the 2017 Cats would be competitive against every opponent. However, even with these anticipated improvements, the projected margins of nearly every game on the schedule would be less than 10 points, and most would be less than 5 points. These narrow projected margins placed nearly every game into play for either a win or a loss when the actual games occur. Therefore, the final outcomes could easily be wins in nearly all games, but just as easily be losses.

Based on these narrow projected margins, I projected a probable record of 8-4 while holding out the promise that this special season was within reach if the Cats could flip one or more of those four close losses into the win column while holding on to all of the close projected wins. In week 3, the Cats travelled to South Carolina as a statistical underdog, but left Columbia with a hard-earned win, plus 1 on the balance sheet. However, in week 4, the Cats returned home only to have victory snatched from their very jaws due to two free touch downs the defense gave to the Gators and a questionable holding call that moved the Cats out of field goal range as the clock expired, balance sheet all square.

Games 5, 6, 7, and 8 played out according to the pre-season script holding even on the narrow projected margins, with one notable exception at Mississippi State where the entire UK team got steam rolled by a blitz of bulldogs. These first 8 games set the stage for yesterday's encounter with Ole Miss, a game in which the Cats were a very narrow statistical favorite, still all square on the win-loss balance sheet. The Cats needed to get the W to remain all square, and to remain on track to match the original 8-4 season projection, with continued hope of winning 9 or 10 games.

The Cats lost this game by a handful of points. The Cats lost on the last play of the game. The Cats lost after driving for what many believed would be the winning score with about 2 minutes remaining. Losses that happen in this way will have a myriad of events during the game that could have, should have, or would have made the difference between the loss and the hoped for win. I will not recite that litany here, but suffice it to say this game was one the Cats let get away, balance sheet -1.

With three games remaining, the updated statistical comparisons with the final three opponents indicate a 1-2 finish, for 7-5, but as has always been the case, the projected margins remain close in two of the three games, +3 against Vanderbilt next Saturday and -4 against Louisville in 3 weeks. The Cats can win both of these, and the Cats can lose both of these. 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4 remains within their total control, but any chance of 9 or more wins in 2017 evaporated in the third quarter yesterday with three consecutive 3 and outs by the UK offense, and a defense that allowed Ole Miss to move up and down the field at will.

Now for the hard cold facts about this team, an ugly little secret that many of us, me included, denied to speak for many weeks. This team has regressed from the levels achieved during the 2016 season. It has regressed on both sides of the ball. During Coach Stoops' first four seasons, the offensive efficiency improved from the prior year 3 of the 4 seasons, with the offensive efficiency taking a dip in 2015. Furthermore, the defensive efficiency improved each year from the previous year.

This season, the offensive efficiency has dropped from the Coach Stoops' best (2016) of 2.94 ppp to only 2.59 ppp. This offensive efficiency is the second best of the Stoops' Era, edging out 2015's 2.52 ppp. The pre-season “hope” was for an offensive efficiency of about 3.15 ppp for 2017. The actual 2017 offensive performance has fallen well short (0.56 ppp) of this 2017 target.

This season, the defensive efficiency has risen from the Coach Stoops' best (2016) of 1.73 ppp to only 1.89 ppp. This defensive efficiency is the worst best of the Stoops' Era since his first year in Lexington when the defensive efficiency was a horrible 2.12 ppp. The pre-season “hope” was for a defensive efficiency of about 1.52 ppp for 2017. The actual 2017 defensive performance has zoomed well above (0.37 ppp) this 2017 target.

The team's adjusted net efficiency (ANE) for 2017 now stands at 0.70 ppp. Consider the trend in ANE since 2012 (Joker's Last).

SEASON	ADJ. OFF. EFF.	ADJ. DEF. EFF.	ADJ. NET EFF.
2012 (Joker)	1.95	2.21	-0.26
2013 (Stoops' 1 st )	2.41	2.12	0.29
2014 (Stoops' 2 nd )	2.79	1.81	0.98
2015 (Stoops' 3 rd )	2.52	1.75	0.77
2016 (Stoops' 4 th )	2.94	1.73	1.21
2017 (Stoops' 5 th )	2.59	1.89	0.70

This slippage occurs during a season when the strength of UK's schedule was one of its easiest since at least 2010. Using the Sagarin Strength of Schedule as a measure, the UK strength of schedule in 2017 has been 120% of the average NCAA schedule strength. The first 4 years of the Stoops' Era, this ratio has been 125%, 130%, 125%, and 127% in 2013, 14, 15, and 16 respectively. In 2010, this ratio was 116%, and this measuring stick indicates UK had its easiest schedule since 1998 in 2008 at 115%.

Nothing comes easy for the UK Football program, coaches, or players. That has been abundantly clear to the Big Blue Nation as well as serious observers of college football throughout the SEC. Clawing up the SEC totem pole is hard work. I would prefer no slippage during any season, and would prefer a steady climb up that pole. However, Coach Stoops, his staff, and the players must stop the slippage and prevent it from establishing a new multi-season trend.

I believe the remainder of the 2017 season will play out without much fanfare, and the 2017 UK football team will make its second consecutive bowl trip at 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4. The name and date of the bowl now becomes only a secondary matter, and the important matter will be the additional practice time available to the staff and players. As a fan we can hold hope that the additional progress and development the additional bowl practice provides will be significant because it now seems that last year's bonus time was not highly effective.

For these reasons, the real test for this program now shifts to the 2018 season to determine whether Coach Stoops and his team can resume that slow, difficult climb by not only recovering the lost ground but by extending the quality of play to a new all-time high for the Stoops Era. I will continue to support Coach Stoops and his players in their endeavor to make the UK football program truly competitive in the SEC.