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BASKETBALL

THIS PAGE PROVIDES EVERY BIG BLUE FAN A GATEWAY
INTO THE 2016-16 BASKETBALL SEASON


Continue to 2015-16 News Index Page

 

How Have Kentucky Opponents And National Contenders
Performed and Trended Over the Last Decade?
Click Here To Explore

 

The 2015-16 UK Surge
In Graphical Terms

When the surge occurred in 2012, I saw it in my data, but I struggled with a way to show it graphically in a form that most people could view and realize, yes this is really happening.  This morning, UK has risen to #7 in the Pomeroy ranking, and I decided to look at Pomeroy ranking prior to each game this season, and the graph below results.

This graph shows several things. 

  1. In the preseason, Pomeroy had UK ranked very high, #1 for the time spanning games 4 through 7, and then UCLA hit.  My data shows the slide starting in game 4 and continuing to game 8, the time period that Pomeroy had the Cats in that #1 spot.   However, the Pomeroy ranking in those portions of a season are strongly influenced by his preseason values and less so by the current season performance, so there was no decline in ranking even though the performance level was already slipping.
  2. The fall from grace occurs, and by game 18, Pomeroy had the Cats at #30.  My ranking at this point had them at #33.  Also, the Pomeroy numbers at this point are almost completely based on the current season averages, with little to no influence from his preseason ideas.
  3. Then, UK's light came on, and the surge began.  Yes, the Tennessee loss appears as a little bump in the surge, but the surge really accelerates after that bump turned the Cats' light from a dim 60 watt level to a bright 150 watt level.

This team continues to surge.  Movement up the Pomeroy chart from 7 to 1 will be much more difficult than moving from #30 to #7, but this year that movement will be easier than most because the power levels of the top 5 teams this year are not head and shoulders above the pack like they would be in most seasons.

Go Big Blue!

 

 

Jay Bilas Lays Out The Formula For Success

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2016 SEC TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!

 

YOUR GATEWAY TO THE 2016 NCAA TOURNAMENT
CLICK HERE!!!
(Will activate in early March When Field Is Announced)

 

What is the 2015-16 Kentucky Team Really About?
Impressive Wins Over Duke and Louisville Say Team Can Play
Losses To UCLA and Ohio State Say Team Has Problems


Nothing Epidomizes This Question Like Alex Poythress' Play
Great at Times-Like Against Louisville
Disappears at Times-Like Against Ohio State

 

The Current State of the UK Roster
Projected Into The Out Years
AND
RECRUITING PROSPECTS
FOR 2014 THROUGH 2016

 

 

The Current Top 64 Ratings
Based On Adjusted Net Game Efficiency
Based On Pomeroy Efficiencies Only
(2015-16 Rankings)

ANE TOP 25

SEC Rankings Based On NGE
2015-16 Current

 

How Have The Pomeroy Rankings Worked Out
With Recent National Champions?

Very Well, actually, with the #1 rated team winning the
National Championship in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013.
In 2011, Connecticut came out of nowhere for an amazing run
to the Championship as the #10 rated team on the Season.

See the Details at this LINK!!!!

 


Insert 2015-16 Schedule with predicted and actual results here when available

 

GAME BY GAME ADJUSTED NET GAME EFFICIENCY
2014-15 Final Results

Follow the 2015-16 Cats From a Mid-summer analysis
of the roster, to pre-season predictions, and then game by game analysis.
You can use the following link to start the reading in sequence,
or you can select links to specific installments below:

Follow the 2015-16 Season
With Game to Game Analysis
In the Sequence Written,

OR

Go Directly To A Specific Installment of This Series:

00 A June Look Ahead at 2015-16

01 Preseason Forecast

02 Cats Open 2015-16 Against A Real Opponent
In First Exhibition Game-Ottawa University

03 Cats Complete Exhibition Season with huge Win Over Kentucky State

04 Let The Games Begin: First Up Albany

05 Cats Return To Rupp In Less Than 24 Hours To Take On NJIT

06 Cats Take on Defending National Champion Duke in Chicago

07 Cats Return To Rupp Unbeaten to Fine Tune Its Game

08 Cats Host Boston University At Rupp

09 Cats Travel to Miami to Face South Florida

10 Cats Return to Rupp For Illinois State

11 Cats Face UCLA At Pauley

11A THE 2015-16 UK BASKETBALL TEAM IS IN BIG TROUBLE

12 Cats Get Back On Court After UCLA Loss-Six Days Later Against EKU

13 Cats Host Arizona State

14 Cats Travel To New York To Face Ohio State

15 Cats Turn Back a Good Louisville Team in Rupp

16 Cats Take Care of Cards-Prepare For 18 Game SEC Season

17 Cats Head Out On SEC Road For Four Of Next Five - First Up Is LSU

18 Cats Continue On SEC Road At Alabama

19 Cats Return To Rupp To Face Mississippi State

20 Cats Go On The Road Again To Auburn

21 Cats Stay On The Road At Arkansas

22 Cats Have Less Than 43 Hours To Travel From Arkansas To Face Vanderbilt

23 Cats Continue Two Game Home Stand Against Missouri

24 Cats Face Kansas In The Phog

24A Has The Collective Light Come On For The Cats?

25 Cats Move From The Phog To The Smokies

26 Cats Got Lost In The Smokies;
Return To Rupp To Wrestle Gator Outside The Swamp

27 Cats Host Georgia

27A UK Basketball's Ship Rising In Falling Tide

28 Cats Travel To South Carolina To Begin Stretch Run On Season

29 Cats Have First Opportunity of 2015-16 To Rectify A Loss

30 Cats Can Take Major Step Toward The 2016 SEC Championship

31 Cats Limp Home To Regroup

32A Upsets! Upsets! Upsets!

32 Cats Take To Road For Last Times This Week, First At Vanderbilt

33 Cats Stay On The Road At Florida

34 Cats Get Chance For Payback Against LSU In Season's Last Game

35 Cats Open Post Season In SEC Quarterfinals Against Alabama

36 Cats and Gamecocks Meet Again In SEC Tournament Semifinals

37 Cats Reach SEC Championship Game Again
Have Opportunity To Get Win Over Texas A&M

38 Cats Open NCAA Journey Against Stony Brook

39 Cats Face Indiana In NCAA Second Round

NOTE: Remainder of This Gateway Will Be Updated Prior to the 2013-14 Season

THE DATA:

Last Game Box Score and Efficiency Data/Trends
for last 3 and 5 games as well as for entire Season

Rebounding Rates; Game-to-Game Grades;
Kentucky and Opponent Shooting Summary; Pace by Game;
Opponent Strength Summary Tables; Turnover Rates by Game; and
Efficiency Trends For Season

UK 2015-16 INTERIM STATS
COMPARED TO NCAA D1 AVERAGE Together with Summary
Tables for 1993 Through 2016

PREDICTED V. ACTUAL SCORES, MARGINS, AND TOTAL POINTS
FOR ALL GAMES IN THIS AND RECENT SEASONS

HISTORICAL DATA FOR ALL SEASONS
KENTUCKY BASKETBALL 1972 THROUG H 2016
TABULATED BY COACH

ANALYSIS OF KENTUCKY BASKETBALL
WITH TEAM AVERAGES FROM 2000 THROUGH 2016

Data for UK Teams 1996, and 2000 Through 2016 for Each Sort Category
Noted Below:

  1. All Games, Including Exhibitions
  2. All Games-D1 [No Exhibitions]
  3. Home
  4. Away
  5. Neutral Court
  6. Non-Conference
  7. SEC
  8. Pomeroy Top 50
  9. Pomeroy Over 50
  10. Post Season Play
  11. Games Since Louisville Game, 2003-2016
  12. SEC Tournament Gateway
  13. NCAA Tournament

 

Current Individual Efficiencies

Updated Following Each Game

 

Kentucky Efficiencies by Game

 

College Basketball-NCAA D1
2014-15 Season Upset Rate
Daily Data/Results


 

Summary Table Sorted By Probability Of Winning

 

Graph of Probability of Winning v Upset Rate

 

 

 

 

 

THE 2016 NCAA TOURNAMENT FIELD IS NOT SET
WHEN THE TOURNAMENT IS READY TO BEGIN
USE THIS LINK WILL ACTIVATE
TO TRACK THE RESULTS V NGE PREDICTIONS

Link Will Be Activated Later

 

The 2016 SEC Tournament Is Coming in early March
Wednesday March 9-Play In Games (Bottom 4 Teams)
Thursday March 10-First Rouund Games (All But Top 4 Teams)
Friday March 11-Quarter Final Games (Top 4 meet 4 First Round Winners)
Saturday March 12-Semifinal Games
Sunday March 13-Championship Game


Use This Link To Your Gateway To the Entire SEC Tournament
With Predictions and Actual Results Updated As They Occur

All Data Are Current With Projections To Year End Results
Based On Favorites Winning All Game To End of Regular Season

OVERVIEW OF 2015-16 OPPONENTS' PERFORMANCE LEVELS

 

A SUMMARY OF ALL 2015-16 UK OPPONENTS' STRENGTH
SORTED BY PREDICTED GAME MARGINS
[LOWEST TO HIGHEST]

 

RANKING OF ALL 2015-16 OPPONENTS BY PYTHAGOREAN - POMEROY

SEC RANKINGS
BASED ON ADJUSTED NGE

 

PROJECTED SEC SEASON
BASED ON ADJUSTED NGE FOR ALL SEC TEAMS

 


To Last Game's Box Score


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