BIG BLUE FANS FOR
FOOTBALL
2018
GATEWAY TO THE 2018 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON
The Projected ANE Values For the Cats and Their 2018 Opponents
As has become my practice, I have provided estiamted outcomes for the 2018 season based on projected team strengths (ANE). This article provides the basis for the projected ANE values for the Cats and each 2018 Opponent.
The 2018 projected Adjusted Net Efficiency (ANE) for each team is computed based on the team's actual performance levels in 2017, 2016, 2015, and 2014. Two projected algorythms have been examined. The first is a statistical linear least squares projection to generate a trend line based on these 4 seasons, and the second is a weighted average whereby greater weight is assigned for 2017 than 2016 than 2015 than for 2014 results. While I have examined both methods in detail, the results reported below are for the weighted average methodology. The reader should appreciate that these two projection methods do NOT produce the same results, but in most cases the results are similar.
To present the results, I have divided the 13 SEC teams and 4 non-conference opponents into 6 groupings. Five groupings have 3 opponents each and the sixth group has two opponents. Each of the graphical presentation of these trends provide the UK data for comparison purposes. Furthermore, each of the graphs utilize the same vertical and horizontal scales so the reader can compare the teams on one graph to the teams on another graph.
KENTUCKY:
Over the last four seasons, the Kentucky ANE values have fluccuated over a relatively narrow range, from a high of 1.42 ppp in 2016 to a low of 0.63 ppp in 2017 with values near 1.00 ppp in 2014 and 2015. The projected ANE for the Cats in 2018 is about 0.97 ppp.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND MURRAY STATE:
Each season, the Cats play three different non-conference opponents along with their traditional non-conference rival, Louisville. Most Big Blue Fans tend to chalk all three of these annual non-conference games into the W column without great hesitation. However, this can be a risky conclusion, and is especially so for 2 of the 3 non-conference opponents in 2018, Central Michigan and Middle Tennessee.
Murray State will be the only 2018 opponent on the schedule that the Cats figure to handle without great concern about a possible upset loss. Over the last four seasons, Murray has been consistent, albeit not very strong, and there is no reason to believe the 2018 Murray State Racers will be significantly out of this trending strength, about -1.20 points per possession. Central Michigan and Middle Tennessee have had very similar recent pasts, and they closed 2017 with almost identical ANE values of about 0.72 to 0.74 ppp. Based on their trends over the last 4 seasons, each of these 2018 opponents have projected ANE values in the 0.52 to 0.54 ppp range.
SEC EAST:
The Cats will play half of its games each season against the other six members of the SEC East. I have divided these six opponents into two groups of three opponents with the first group consisting of the three weaker members and the second group consisting of the three stronger members of the SEC East.
VANDERBILT, TENNESSEE, AND MISSOURI:
Over the last 4 years, Vanderbilt has been the weakest opponent in this grouping, and ended 2017 as the weakest SEC team with an ANE of about 0.38 ppp. Based on the trend analysis, Vanderbilt's ANE is projected to rise slightly in 2018 to about 0.69 ppp. While the Cats have defeated Missouri each of the last two seasons, Missouri has ended each of the preceding four seasons with ANE values higher than the Cats. However, the differences have been small. Missouri ended 2017 with an ANE of about 1.37 ppp and their 2018 projected ANE is about 1.46 ppp. Tennessee has been a team in decline with its ANE plunging from a high of about 2.48 ppp in 2015 to 1.82 ppp in 2016 and 0.50 ppp in 2017. The projection for Tennessee indicates an improvement is likely, to about 1.41 ppp, but the uncertainties associated with a new head coach cannot be factored into this analysis.
FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND SOUTH CAROLINA:
In 2017, Georgia rebounded from a recent low point for the Bulldogs in 2016 to an ANE value over 3 ppp, which propelled them into College Football's Final Four and the Championship Game against Alabama. The trend analysis suggests the Bulldogs are likely to experience some slippage in 2018 to an ANE value of about 2.31 ppp, which should keep Georgia in the driver's seat for the SEC East in 2018. Florida had been playing very consistent football for three years with ANE values hovering around 2.0 ppp, but in 2017 the Gators' ANE dipped to only 1.07 ppp. This drop prompted the Gators to change head coaches and hire Mullen away from Mississippi State in the off season. The trend analysis indicates the Gators should regain about half of the ground they slipped in 2017 to an ANE of about 1.16 ppp in 2018. However, college football guru Phil Steele has tagged the Gators as the team that should be the most improved college team in 2018. In this grouping of teams, the enigma team is South Carolina. The Gamecocks had been experiencing a multi-season slide until they reversed that trend and ended 2017 with an ANE of about 1.74 ppp, up from only 0.81 ppp in 2016. Many observers believe the Gamecocks could challenge Georgia in 2018 for the SEC East Championship, but my projection has them slipping a small amount from 2017 to about 1.37 ppp in 2018.
SEC WEST:
The Cats will play two of its games each season against members of the SEC West. Mississippi State is on the schedule each year, and the other six members of the SEC West rotate on and off the Cats' schedule in a 12 year cycle. This season, the Cats will entertain Mississippi State and travel to Texas A&M. I have divided these seven opponents into three groups, two groups of 3 SEC West opponents and one group with Texas A&M and Louisville.
MISSISSIPPI STATE, MISSISSIPPI, AND LSU:
Three of the last four Mississippi State teams posted ANE values above 2 ppp, about 2.4 ppp in 2014 and 2015, and about 2.2 ppp last year. For Mullens' Bulldogs, 2016 was the outlier with an ANE of only about 1.0 ppp. With the loss of their head coach, Mississippi State is difficult to forecast for 2018. However, the trend analysis indicates an ANE for 2018 of about 1.9 ppp. However, I would expect any deviation from this projection to occur on the down side rather than the up side. Neither Mississippi nor LSU are on the Cats' schedule in 2018. LSU has been playing very good football with ANE values between 2.2 ppp and 3.2 ppp, and the 2018 projection is about 2.6 ppp. Ole Miss has had back to back seasons with slippage, ending 2017 about about 1.0 ppp. The projection for 2018 suggests recovery to about 1.7 ppp.
ALABAMA, AUBURN, AND ARKANSAS:
Alabama has been, is, and will be Alabama. They not only establish the standard of excellence for the SEC, Alabama establishes the standard of excellence on the national stage of college football nearly every season. Based on the trend analysis, Alabama is likely to be Alabama again in 2018. However, Auburn is not far behind the Crimson Tide, and some seasons, Auburn is actually better than Alabama. That is no surprise to the War Eagles, and while the Tide loyalists are not likely to admit it, it probably comes as no surprise to them either. In this grouping, Arkansas has become more akin to the Kentucky Wildcats over the last two seasons that the Hog fans will ever admit or accept. Since the Cats do not play any of these opponents in 2018, the data is there for your consideration, but I have no further comments.
TEXAS A&M, AND LOUISVILLE:
Texas A&M and Louisville have consistently played better football than the Cats, and the projections for 2018 indicate a continuation of these trends.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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