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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

17
Kentucky Hosts Travis Ford's
Massachusetts Minutemen at Rupp

Pre-Game Analysis:

About a week ago, Travis Ford took his University of Massachusetts Minutemen into Freedom Hall in Louisville and left with an impressive 4 point “upset” victory. A few days later, last Saturday, Tubby Smith took his University of Kentucky Wildcats into the same building and secured a 12-point win over the same Louisville Cardinals. Massachusetts' trip to Rupp Arena Friday will be back to back trips home for Travis Ford who played for Louisville current coach, Rick Pitino at Kentucky in the early 1990's. Ford defeated his former coach; can he pull the “weekly double” and leave Lexington with a victory over his Alma Mater?

Kentucky has played one intervening game since they defeated the Cardinals. On Tuesday night, the Cats took care of business by 14 points against a scrappy Santa Clara team on the strength of Randolph Morris' double-double, 23 points and 13 rebounds, that included 15 of UK's 30 first half points. In the Santa Clara game, UK continued to shoot the ball poorly. For the game, Morris made 10 of his 18 shots, but the rest of the Kentucky team only managed 16 of 45 shots. The Cats overcame their own misfires with a defense that held Santa Clara to only 21% from long range and 36% overall shooting. In addition,

Kentucky held its own on the offensive boards for the first time since the second game of the season, against Mississippi Valley State , and Kentucky limited its turnovers for the game to a respectable 14, or one turnover for every 6.3 possessions. On the down side, Santa Clara enjoyed many wide open looks at the basket from the arc, but as has been the case with so many of Kentucky's opponents this season, Santa Clara could not find the ocean, making only 5 of 24 attempts from 3 point range.

Through the first 11 games of the 2006-07 season, an interesting trend is emerging. Against RPI Top 50 opponents this season, UK is 1-3 and these four opponents have grabbed on average about nine more offensive rebounds than UK . Against opponents having RPI rankings greater than 50, UK is 7-0, but is still averaging -2 on the offensive boards. With respect to turnovers, against the Top 50, UK is losing the turnover battles 11-19 while against the Over 50 crowd, UK and its opponents are each committing 15 turnovers per game.

Massachusetts brings a 9-2 record against D1 opposition into this game, with losses to Pittsburgh on the road [#5], and Boston College at home [#34]. In addition to their road win over Louisville [#79], UMass claims a neutral court victory over #97 Oakland . Through 11 games, Massachusetts “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.4535.

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Massachusetts as the #91 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #33 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 14-point Kentucky win over Massachusetts [79-65] at Rupp, estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 90%.

Kentucky averages about 80 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged just under 85 possessions per game. Massachusetts currently averages 85 possessions per game while their opponents average just under 84 possessions. This means that unlike Kentucky , Massachusetts has been holding its own on the offensive rebounding battles [+1] while UK continues to struggle and is losing this battle by about 5 per game, and has lost the offensive rebounding in nine of its eleven games.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 4.9 possessions, and Massachusetts averages one turnover for each 4.8 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.1 opponent possessions while Massachusetts forces one turnover for each 5.1 opponent possessions. Massachusetts 's offensive efficiency has been 0.882 ppp and 75 points per game. Massachusetts 's defensive efficiency has been 0.754 ppp while holding opponents to 63 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.128 ppp.

Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.868 ppp while scoring about 70 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.748 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.120 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.4535 for Massachusetts and 0.6031 for UK .

Until Santa Clara , each Kentucky opponent since MVS had exposed the exact same Kentucky weaknesses. UK 's continues to have difficulty on the offensive boards and despite only 13 turnovers against UL and 14 turnovers against Santa Clara this week, UK has committed turnovers at an alarming rate this season. Finally, Kentucky 's perimeter defense has been allowing all opponents many wide open looks from outside the arc, but it seems that few Kentucky opponents have been able to capitalize on this apparent Kentucky weakness.

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Massachusetts has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 85 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 84 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 83 to 87 possessions for this game.

• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.120 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp tonight would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.150 will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end.

• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -5 through the first 11 games. Massachusetts has held its own on the offensive board work thus far, and controlled the offensive boards against its opponents, +1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Massachusetts securing about 3 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Massachusetts posted a record of 13-15 record last season losing to Xavier by 9 in the first round of the A10 Conference Tournament. Massachusetts 's final RPI rank was #131 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.5370. At this early stage of this season, Massachusetts stands with a RPI rank of #91 with a SOS of 0.4535.

Based on this early performance data for Massachusetts and UK to date, which includes eleven regular season games for UK and Massachusetts, Kentucky is a significant 18 point favorite, 75-57 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 85 possessions for Massachusetts . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.935 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.696 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 69 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his most recent starting lineup for this game, his third starting combo in the first 10 games. Tonight Jasper will start at the point, and join Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration with the hopes of fewer turnovers. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Kentucky won the opening tip and scored the first basket, but Massachusetts took the early lead, building it to 5-2. Then UMass was plagued by several blank trips due to misses and turnovers, and the Cats caught up and move ahead, 11-9 at the under 16 TV timeout. However, UMass then began to make shots and stop making turnovers, to regain the lead, and take a 1 point lead, 19-18 to the under 12 TV timeout. Both teams are shooting extremely well from the floor, a proficiency that will not last through the duration of a game, UK at 72% and UMass 58%. Over the next 7 minutes, UK outscored UMass 15-3, on the strength of outstanding outside shooting, forcing UMass to take a timeout. UK stretched this lead to 17 points, 39-22 before UMass scored the last 5 points of the first half to go to the locker room down 12, 39-27

Kentucky won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 17-10, and Kentucky edged UMass 2-1 on offensive rebounds, in a game that has seen very few offensive rebounds. Neither team scored a second chance point in the half.

Massachusetts had an offensive efficiency of only 0.771 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its only second chance possession. UK had 1.114 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was perfect, 2-2 [100.0%] but entirely too few chances, suggesting a less than aggressive offensive approach. Massachusetts was only 6-9[66.7%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 16-28 overall [57.1%] and an outstanding 5-7 from long range [71.4%]. For Massachusetts , their field goal shooting overall was poor, 9-23 [39.1%] and a poor 3-10 [30.0%] from long range. UK committed 8 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.6 possessions and Massachusetts committed 9 turnovers for the half, one for every 4.0 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 73 rd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 34 points, while Massachusetts needs 46 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 74 possessions for the game for UK and 72 possessions for Massachusetts . Kentucky scored its 73 rd point of the game on a Jasper free throw with 4:43 left in the game with the score 73-52. The Cats finished the last 4 ½ minutes by closing the deal on a 14 point victory, 82-68.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the second half by extending their 12 point half time lead to 17 points, 45-28, forcing an early UMass timeout with about 17 minutes to play. UMass stopped the surge and made it to the under 16 TV timeout trailing by “only” 15, 48-33. The teams traded baskets for the next 4 minutes, with UK maintaining that 12 point lead, 54-42 at the 12 minute mark. However, UK reasserted itself to take a 21 point lead, 65-44 at the under 8 TV timeout. Massachusetts closed to 1 point twice, but UK then stretched their tenuous lead back to 6 points at the under 12 TV timeout. The teams played even during the next segment, with UK holding to a 5 point lead, 54-49 at the under 8 TV timeout. UMass kept the margin in the low teens down the stretch, and closed the game at a 14 point deficit, 82-68.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 37-32. UMass controlled the battle of the offensive boards, 11-6 on the game. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 5 second chance points and Massachusetts used its 11 second chance opportunities to post only 6 second chance points.

Massachusetts had an offensive efficiency of 0.867 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.546 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 0.833 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an anemic 22.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Massachusetts was able to convert 26.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well below its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 15-28 [52.6%] Massachusetts was a little more effective from the free throw line tonight making 17-24 [70.8%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 30-51 overall [58.8%] and an outstanding 7-11 [63.6%] from long range. For Massachusetts , their field goal shooting overall was poor throughout the game, 22-59 [37.3%] and a fair 31.8% from long range, 7-22.

Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.6 possessions. Massachusetts committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.7 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Massachusetts has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 85 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 84 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 83 to 87 possessions for this game. Tonight, UMass had 86 possessions and UK had 83 possessions

• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.120 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp tonight would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.150 will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end. Tonight, UK earned a NGE for the game of 0.200 points per possession.

• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -5 through the first 11 games. Massachusetts has held its own on the offensive board work thus far, and controlled the offensive boards against its opponents, +1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Massachusetts securing about 3 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. UMass won the battle of the offensive boards, +5 in this game.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On December 30, 2006 , UK will play its thirteenth regular season game against Eastern Kentucky University at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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