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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

18
Kentucky Hosts EKU at Rupp

Pre-Game Analysis:

Last week, the Kentucky Wildcats found a rare shooting eye and shot UMass and Travis Ford out of Rupp, hitting a season high 58.8% of their shots, including an amazing 7 for 11 from outside the arc. For many fans, this hot shooting was a welcome sign of better things to come. For the cynics among us, including this fan, the 58.8% shooting was an anomalous performance by a 47% shooting team rather than a sign of good things yet to come.

Consider that last year, UK shot about 45% on the season, yet they managed to shoot 56% or greater [Average + 11%] four times [ Georgia -Away, USC @ Rupp, USC Away, and Tennessee Away]. With this season approaching its ½ point, the UMass shooting exhibition is the second such “outburst” by this group of Cats so far. It may happen another 1 to 3 times, but no one should realistically expect a change in the sea level of UK 's shooting this season.

And lest we forget that for every anomaly that exceeds the mean, there will be anomalies that fall well short of the mean. Last season, there were also 4 games that fell below the mean – 11% [below 34% shooting; Iowa at Neutral 32.8%, Indiana at Neutral 31.1%, Kansas Away 24.2%, and UAB in NCAA 30.6%]. So far this season, UK has not experienced a single extreme game at the low end of the scale, and one should expect that will occur at least 3 to 5 times over the course of a season.

So, the Cats are on a roll, having won 5 in a row, and unless UK does not show up on Saturday, they will extend that winning streak to 6 games when EKU comes to collect their check. That leaves a final non-conference game against Houston on January 3, 2007 and then the SEC wars begin. Cat fans should enjoy this mid-season diet of cupcakes because once the Cats enter the heart of their SEC schedule, we all will learn about their ability to compete.

While the Cats' shooting percentage against UMass was impressive, other aspects of that game remain problematic. UK returned to its season long habit of turning the ball over entirely too frequently. Against UMass , Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, one for every 4.6 possessions, which is about 8% below their poor season average of 5.0 possessions per turnover. Offensive rebounding continues to be a major difficulty for this team. In the first 12 games, UK has lost the battle of the offensive boards 10 times, and only won this statistical battle in one game, against Mississippi Valley State in the second game of the season. UK 's opponents are averaging 5 bonus possessions this season, and when the opponent has a RPI in the top 50, that margin swells to an average of 9 bonus looks at the basket. The UMass game, while shooting was incredible, did nothing to allay the concerns that Cat fans have about turnovers and offensive rebounding.

Eastern Kentucky University brings a 6-3 record against D1 opposition into this game, with losses on the road to Ohio State by 29 and Western Kentucky by 23. EKU also lost at home by 2 points to Austin Peay. Among the six victories, the highest current RPI ranking of all EKU victims currently belongs to E. Tennessee State [#205]. EKU also claims two additional wins over Asbury College and Kenyon College . Through 9 games against D1 competition, Eastern Kentucky “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.4302 and a RPI ranking of #159.

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Eastern Kentucky as the #160 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #28 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 21-point Kentucky win over Eastern Kentucky [75-54] at Rupp, estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 98%.

Kentucky averages 80.5 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 85.0 possessions per game. Eastern Kentucky currently averages 72.0 possessions per game while their opponents average 73.0 possessions. Like UK , EKU has not been winning the offensive rebounding battles, but the EKU -1 offensive rebounding deficit is much smaller than UK 's -4.5 overall average or the -2.3 average against teams not ranked in the top 50.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 4.9 possessions, and Eastern Kentucky averages one turnover for each 4.5 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.1 opponent possessions while Eastern Kentucky forces one turnover for each 4.9 opponent possessions. Eastern Kentucky 's offensive efficiency has been 0.921 ppp and 66 points per game. Eastern Kentucky 's defensive efficiency has been 0.877 ppp while holding opponents to 64 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.045 ppp.

Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.878 ppp while scoring about 71 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.751 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.127 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.4302 for Eastern Kentucky and 0.6318 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Eastern Kentucky has been playing at a significantly slower pace, 72 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 73 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace exceed 80 possessions for either team, and will probably be in the mid to high 70s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.127 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.400 ppp against Eastern Kentucky would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.250 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -4.5 through the first 12 games. Eastern Kentucky has done a little better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, -1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Eastern Kentucky securing about 1 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Eastern Kentucky posted a record of 13-16 record last season losing to Jacksonville State by 27 in the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. Eastern Kentucky 's final RPI rank was #194 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.4853. At this early stage of this season, Eastern Kentucky stands with a RPI rank of #159 with a SOS of 0.4302.

Based on this early performance data for Eastern Kentucky and UK to date, which includes twelve regular season games for UK and nine games against D1 opposition by Eastern Kentucky, Kentucky is a significant 27 point favorite, 80-53 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 77 possessions for UK and 78 possessions for Eastern Kentucky . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 1.037 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.674 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 67 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his most recent starting lineup for this game, his third starting combo in the first 10 games. Tonight Jasper will start at the point, and join Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration with the hopes of fewer turnovers. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Kentucky won the opening tip and scored the first basket on an offensive rebound. A second put back, following three more offensive rebounds accounted for all the scoring in the first segment of this game. UK starts 2-9 with one turnover and 4 offensive rebounds, to EKU's 0-2 shooting, 4 turnovers, and no offensive rebounds. After a third put back basket extended the early lead to 6-0, then EKU began to make baskets to take an 11-8 lead, and 11-10 lead at the under 12 TV timeout. A 5 for 5 substitution, shortly after the start of the second segment, and that substitution resulted in the 11-2 run by EKU.

In the third segment, UK returned to its starters, and regained the lead, 16-15 at the under 8 TV timeout. Kentucky continues to let EKU hang around, and the under 4 TV timeout hold to a tenuous 25-21 lead, and is really staying in the game itself with 9 second chance points. The teams closed out the first half with Kentucky taking a 6 point, 34-28 lead to the locker rooms.

Kentucky won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 24-11, and Kentucky dominated EKU 10-2 on offensive rebounds.

Eastern Kentucky had an offensive efficiency of only 0.839 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 2 second chance possessions. UK had 0.781 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.900 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was pitiful, 4-8 [50.0%]. Eastern Kentucky was 3-4[75.0%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 15-32 overall [46.9%] and an abysmal 0-9 from long range [0.00%]. For Eastern Kentucky , their field goal shooting overall was poor, 10-25 [40.0%] and an average 5-15 [33.3%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 7.0 possessions and Eastern Kentucky committed 6 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.5 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 65 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while Eastern Kentucky needs 39 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 82 possessions for the game for UK and 66 possessions for Eastern Kentucky . Kentucky scored its 65 th point of the game on a Bradley three pointer with about 8:20 left in the game with the score 66-53. The Cats finished the last 8 minutes by closing the deal on a 18-oint victory, 78-65.

Second Half Summary:

EKU opened the second half with a 8-2 run to pull even with the Cats at 36. Then the Cats make a run, to reestablish their lead at 6, 45-39. The teams went to their benches for the under 16 TV timeout with the Cats clinging to a 4 point lead, 45-41.

During the next 4 minutes, the Cats expanded their lead to double digits, 59-48 at the under 12 TV timeout, and to 11 at the under 8 TV timeout, 66-55. At the under 4 TV timeout, with 3:07 remaining, UK's lead remained in single digits, 71-62, and was only 6 points, 68-62 prior to a Bradley 3 pointer immediately before this final timeout for TV purposes. The teams played out the final segment, with UK securing its sixth win in a row, 78-65 over EKU.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 38-26. Kentucky also controlled the battle of the offensive boards, 13-9 on the game. Kentucky converted its 13 second chance opportunities into 16 second chance points and Eastern Kentucky used its 9 second chance opportunities to post only 9 second chance points.

Eastern Kentucky had an offensive efficiency of 0.889 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.984 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.231 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed strong 43.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Eastern Kentucky was able to convert 26.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well above its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 14-19 [73.7%] Eastern Kentucky was a little less effective from the free throw line tonight making 5-9 [55.6%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 29-56 overall [51.8%] and an average 6-18 [33.3%] from long range. For Eastern Kentucky, their field goal shooting overall was fair throughout the game, 25-57 [43.9%] and a strong 41.7% from long range, 10-24.

Kentucky committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.0 possessions. Eastern Kentucky committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.5 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Eastern Kentucky has been playing at a significantly slower pace, 72 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 73 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace exceed 80 possessions for either team, and will probably be in the mid to high 70s range. Today, UK had 75 possessions and EKU had 72 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.127 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.400 ppp against Eastern Kentucky would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.250 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive end. The NGE for the game was 0.137 ppp, which is much lower than the respective strengths of these teams would have predicted.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -4.5 through the first 12 games. Eastern Kentucky has done a little better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, -1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Eastern Kentucky securing about 1 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. UK won the offensive rebounding battles today, +4, for the second time this year that UK has grabbed more offensive rebounds than an opponent, the other being Mississippi Valley State.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “C” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On January 3, 2007 , UK will play its fourteenth regular season game against Houston at Rupp Arena. Based on the performances of each team this season, the NGE analysis indicates a UK victory over Houston by 22 points, 84-62.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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