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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
21
Kentucky Returns To Rupp To Take On Auburn
Pre-Game Analysis:
The Kentucky Wildcats opened the 2007 SEC schedule on Saturday night with an impressive 10 point victory over the Ole Miss Rebels. This opening win was impressive because the “experts” expected the game to go to the wire, and decided by less than 2 points. However, Ole Miss has the poorest defense in the SEC thus far this season, and their offense is nearer the bottom than the middle of the league. So, were the expectations of a close call for the Wildcats based on Ole Miss' prowess or does it reflect a belief that UK 's performance has not measured up.
Certainly, UK 's performance exceeded expectations against Ole Miss. Next up, the Auburn Tigers at Rupp Arena on Wednesday night. While Ole Miss has the worst defense in the conference, Auburn 's offense is at the bottom of the SEC teams thus far, and its defense is in the bottom half of the conference. Despite these low conference rankings, Auburn won its first SEC game of the year as well, at home over Vanderbilt by 3 points. However, for Mississippi and Auburn , the only wins that Pomeroy forecasts for either of them over the course of the rest of the season are their respective home games against each other.
Kentucky brings its 12-3 record into this game, and Auburn boasts an 11-5 record. Both teams are now 1-0 in the SEC, and that is where the similarities end. Auburn has lost four of its five games against quality opponents: Oklahoma State by 1 [neutral], Wisconsin by 14 [neutral], Pittsburgh by 8, and Texas A&M by 29. Its 5 th loss of this season was at Southern Mississippi by 2 points. To date, Auburn 's most impressive win was Saturday over Vanderbilt by 3 points.
Kentucky is riding an eight (8) game winning streak since their 4-3 start that included 3 losses in four games to UCLA, Memphis , and UNC. The plum of this seven game streak has been the back to back wins over IU by 5 at Rupp and UL by 12 at Freedom Hall on back to back Saturdays. Through fifteen games against D1 competition, Auburn “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5093 and a RPI ranking of #136.
Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Auburn as the #101 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #28 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 15-point Kentucky win over Auburn [76-61] at Rupp, estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 93%.
Kentucky averages 80.0 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 83.5 possessions per game. Auburn currently averages 85.0 possessions per game while their opponents average 84.0 possessions. Unlike UK , Auburn has been winning the offensive rebounding battles, +1 offensive rebounding surplus, which is better than UK 's -3.5 overall average.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.2 possessions, and Auburn averages one turnover for each 4.9 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.4 opponent possessions while Auburn forces one turnover for each 4.6 opponent possessions. Auburn 's offensive efficiency has been 0.867 ppp and 74 points per game. Auburn 's defensive efficiency has been 0.801 ppp while holding opponents to 67 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.066 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.894 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.766 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.128 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5093 for Mississippi and 0.6147 for UK .
I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.
• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. Auburn has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 85 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 84 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower to mid 80s.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.128 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp against Ole Miss would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.200 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive and defensive end.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.5 through the first 15 games. Auburn has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, +1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Auburn securing about 1 more offensive rebound that the Cats for the game.
Based on this performance data for Auburn and UK to date, which includes fifteen regular season games for both teams against D1 competition, Kentucky is a 20 point favorite, 79-59 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 84 possessions for Auburn . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.958 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.702 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 70 points.
| NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring | |||||
| Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue | |||||
| Statistical Measure | Kentucky |
Auburn |
|||
| Points | Percents |
79 |
59 |
Percents |
|
| FGM | 55.6% |
28 |
24 |
47.4% |
|
| FGA | 50.0% |
56 |
61 |
39.3% |
|
| 3PTM | 8 |
6 |
|||
| 3PTA | 40.0% |
20 |
23 |
26.1% |
|
| FTM | 15 |
5 |
|||
| FTA | 78.9% |
19 |
17 |
29.4% |
|
| TO | 17 |
15 |
|||
| REB | 10 |
38 |
34 |
14 |
|
| Possessions | 83 |
84 |
|||
| PPP | 0.2552 |
0.9576 |
0.7024 |
||
| POWER OF GAME | 136.3% |
73.3% |
|||
Game Summary:
Due to prior commitments, I was not able to watch this game tonight, and can only provide the following summary of the results. Kentucky won 84-57 after leading at the half 36-19.
Auburn had an offensive efficiency of 0.592 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.750 ppp for its 20 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.934 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 1.300 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed decent 34.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Auburn was able to convert 40.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot well below its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 21-33 [63.6%] Auburn was less effective from the free throw line tonight making 10-17 [58.8%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 28 -50 overall [56.0%] and a strong 7-19 [36.8%] from long range. For Auburn , their field goal shooting overall was poor throughout the game, 19-68 [28.4%] and a poor 27.9% from long range, 9-32.
Kentucky committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.5 possessions. Auburn committed 16 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.7 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.
• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 84 possessions per game. Auburn has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 85 possessions per game while limiting their opponents to about 84 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower to mid 80s. Auburn rode its +10 offensive rebounding total to 92 total possessions and Kentucky had 85 total possessions.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.128 ppp, which is slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp against Ole Miss would signal improvement in the struggling UK offense while a game NGE of less than 0.200 ppp will signal continued difficulty on the offensive and defensive end. The Game NGE tonight was 0.369 ppp.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.5 through the first 15 games. Auburn has done a better job on the offensive boards against its opponents, +1. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with Auburn securing about 1 more offensive rebound that the Cats for the game. Auburn won the offensive boards, 20-10, for a +10 margin.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “C” and a rare “B-” respectively as shown below:
Next Game On Schedule:
On January 13, 2007 , UK will play its seventeenth regular season game and its third SEC game of the season against Mississippi State at Rupp Arena.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved