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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

24
Vandy Ends Kentucky's 11 Game Win Streak;
Win's Third Straight Over Cats
Next Up - The Final 11 Games

Pre-Game Analysis:

After the first two weeks of SEC play, it seems clear that the talent level in this conference is well distributed, and teams at the bottom can beat teams at the top on “any given night'. This lesson has never been clearer than it is now, following Wednesday night's games. Lowly Auburn beat highly ranked Tennessee by 3. Upstart [but good] Georgia traveled into Fayetteville and left with a 3 point win over the hot Razorbacks on a last second jumper by Georgia's least likely 3 point shooter [Newman]. However, the capstone of the evening of bizarre outcomes must be Vanderbilt's total domination of highly regarded Alabama [ Alabama 's second embarrassing loss in two weeks of conference play].

With these recent SEC events as the backdrop, Vanderbilt travels to Rupp Arena to take on a red hot Kentucky Wildcat team which is one of only two SEC teams that has managed to win all of its early SEC games, and the only SEC team to have played and won four games thus far. More to the point, Kentucky 's last outing was an official “poleaxing” of South Carolina, 87-49 [NGE = 0.572 points per possession]. “Poleaxing” has become relevant because that is exactly what Vanderbilt did to Alabama on Wednesday night [NGE = 0.452 ppp].

Certainly, on the strength of each of these teams' last performances, both look like world-beaters. However, before we rely too heavily upon these singular results, we should place them into the proper context. “Poleaxing” does occur, but these rare demonstrations of total domination in a basketball game are not indicative of the victor's true strength and character or the victims' lack thereof. With respect to UK history since the 1999-00 season through today, UK has enjoyed 9 such “poleaxings” of opponents and been a “poleaxing” victim once.

That is a “poleaxing” event about once every 30 to 35 games. I do not have similar data for Vanderbilt, but I believe it is safe to say that Vanderbilt does not enjoy such events any more frequently than UK has. These anomalous games do not have any pattern with respect to the opponent's real strength or character in UK's case, and I doubt that Wednesday's “poleaxing” by Vanderbilt upon Alabama speaks in any significant way about either of those teams either.

Vanderbilt is not likely to capture that lightning in a bottle any more than UK is for Saturday's game.

After the second week of this young SEC season, Kentucky and Florida stand alone at the top of the SEC, both undefeated, Kentucky 4-0 and Florida 3-0. That is where the similarities between these two SEC teams begins, and ends. Kentucky successfully traversed the bottom of the SEC, twice at Rupp over Mississippi State and Auburn , and at lowly Ole Miss and USC to earn its perfect start. Saturcay , UK continues its five game swing through the bottom feeders of the SEC when Vanderbilt comes to Rupp. The final 11 SEC games will tell the story for this UK team, not these first 5 preliminaries. We will all learn what this team is made of when they confront their last 11 games of this 2007 SEC season.

Kentucky brings a 15-3, 4-0 record into Saturday's game against the 12-6 [11-6 v D1 Opposition], 2-2 Vanderbilt Commodores. These teams have played one common SEC opponent along the way, Auburn . Vanderbilt lost to Auburn on the road by 3 [68-65] while UK defeated Auburn at Rupp by 27, 84-57. Three of Vandy's six loses have occurred on the road, at Wake Forest by 10, at Auburn by 3, and at Georgia by 12. Vandy also lost on a neutral court to Appalachian State by 8, and at home to Georgetwon by 16 and Furman by 8. On the “W” side of the Commodore ledger, Vanderbilt has three nice home victories to its credit: #29 Georgia Tech by 9, #20 Tennessee by 1, and #12 Alabama by 21. All ranking numbers presented above are the current RPI rankings, per Pomeroy.

Kentucky is riding a eleven (11) game winning streak since their 4-3 start that included 3 losses in four games to UCLA, Memphis , and UNC. The plum of this 11-game streak has been the back-to-back wins over IU by 5 at Rupp and UL by 12 at Freedom Hall on back to back Saturdays. Vanderbilt had a seven [six D1 opponents] game win streak this season before losing to Appalachian State by 8 in overtime. Vanderbilt is 4-2 over their last 6 games.

Through fifteen games against D1 competition, Vanderbilt “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5186 and a RPI ranking of #90, which is better than only Ole Miss, , but no one else in the SEC at this time. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Vandy as the #60 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #14 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 13-point Kentucky win over USC [77-64], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 89%.

Kentucky averages 79.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 83.4 possessions per game. Vanderbilt currently averages 82 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 83.0 possessions per game. Like UK , Vanderbilt has been losing the offensive rebounding battles, but is still better than UK at -1 instead of -3.8.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Vanderbilt averages one turnover for each 6.4 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.4 opponent possessions while Vanderbilt forces one turnover for each 5.1 opponent possessions. Vandy's offensive efficiency has been 0.953 ppp and 78 points per game. Vandy's defensive efficiency has been 0.847 ppp while holding opponents to 70 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.106 ppp.

Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.912 ppp while scoring about 73 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.749 ppp on about 62 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.163 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5358 for Vanderbilt and 0.6223 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Vandy has been playing at a fasster pace, 82 possessions per game for themselves and 83 possessions per game for their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.163 ppp, which is well above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK and stands at the highest level since about this same stage of the season in 2005. A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against Vandy would signal continued improvement by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0..150 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 18 games. Vanderbilt is probably a worse rebounding team than UK , and I expect UK to win this battle for a change on Saturday, with UK securing one more offensive rebound than the Commodores for the game.

Based on this performance data for Vanderbilt and UK to date, which includes eighteen regular season games and four SEC games for Kentucky and seventeen/four for Vandy , Kentucky is a 18 point favorite, 80-62 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for Vandy. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.988 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.747 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his same starting lineup for this game, Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Both teams open up this game loose with their possessions, and each team committed three turnovers in the first mini-game. However, Vandy made 2 of 5 from beyond the arc, won the offensive rebounding battle 2-1, and won the mini-game 6-2 at the under 16 TV timeout. Vandy again won the second mini-game, 6-5 to take a 12-7 lead to the bench at the under 12 TV timeout. During this segment, Vandy continued turning the ball over [total 6], but poor shooting by Kentucky is allowing Vandy to maintain a lead.

In the third mini-game, UK finally secured a win, 6-4, producing a 16-13 Vandy lead at the under 12 TV timeout. Kentucky 's shooting is pitiful, Vandy has committed two more turnovers, 7-5, and the teams are even on offensive rebounds. However, the 2 point mini-game win is tenuous as Vandy will have two free throws coming out of the break. Vandy made both free throws, making the second segment a push, and then proceeded to win the fourth mini-game 10-8 to support a 7 point, 28-21 lead at the under 4 TV timeout. Vandy has won 3 of the first four segments, and the teams played even in the fourth segment.

Turnovers are now 7-6, and offensive rebounds are still even.. Kentucky came out of this last TV timeout of the half on a mission, and out scored the Commodores 9-3, forcing a Vandy timeout with 1:42 to play in the half, as the shooting percentages begin to equalize. The teams played out the final 1:42 with UK continuing this mini-surge and taking their first lead of the game, 33-32, into the locker room

The pace is about 78 possessions for UK and VANDERBILT. Kentucky had a +1 advantage on the boards, 17-16, with UK gaining a +1 edge in offensive rebounds, 4-3.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.778 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.829 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

Neither team shot many free throws during the first half, UK was 4 for 5 [80.0%] and VANDERBILT was 4-6 [66.7%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 13-31 overall [41.9%] and an average 3-9 from long range [33.3%]. For VANDERBILT, their field goal shooting overall was 11-26 [42.3%] and a very strong 6-12 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.5 possessions and VANDERBILT committed 10 turnovers for the half, one for every 3.9 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 66 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while VANDERBILT needs 34 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 78 possessions for the game for UK and VANDERBILT. Vanderbilt scored its the 66 th point tonight on a Cage free throw with under a minute to play, and moving Vandy up 67-59. The teams played out the last minute of the game, and Vandy closed the deal for the third time in a row, the second straight win in Rupp Arena 72-67, ending UK 's winning streak at 11 games

Second Half Summary:

The second half started in much the same manner as the first half, UK turnovers, and hot Vandy shooting. Vanderbilt wasted no time, hitting back to back threes while UK turned the ball over on their first three possessions. Vandy regained the lead, 37-32, and then the teams traded baskets to the under 12 TV timeout, with Vandy having possession.and leading 49-47. During the third mini-game of the second half, the teams played even,4-4, with Vandy having two opportunities at the free throw line after this break.

With 7:44 to play, this game is very much in doubt. Vandy turnovers and poor rebounding are allowing UK to stay in the game through 32:16 of play.

In the fourth segment of the second half, UK won 6-5, to cut the lead to only 1 point with 3:43 remaining in the game, 58-57 Vanderbilt. Vandy makes huge shots and UK doesn't, as Vandy move up 65-59 with 1:13 to play, forcing a UK timeout. Vanderbilt owned the final segment, 14-10 to secure the game, 72-67.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 32-27. Kentucky also won the battle of the offensive boards today, 11-5. Kentucky converted its 11 second chance opportunities into 11 second chance points and VANDERBILT used its 5 second chance opportunities to post only 6 second chance points.

VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.985 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 5 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.000 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.824 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.848 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed an average 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert only 19.2 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot above its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 9-11 [81.8%] VANDERBILT was much less effective from the free throw line tonight making 13-20 [65.0%]. After the best shooting game of the year against USC on Tuesday, today UK's field goal shooting for UK was low, 43.3% [26-60] overall and a weak 6-22 [27.3%] from long range Vandy's field goal shooting overall was strong throughout the game, 24-48 [50.0%] and a very strong 47.8% from long range, 11-23.

Kentucky committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.6 possessions. VANDERBILT also committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Vandy has been playing at a fasster pace, 82 possessions per game for themselves and 83 possessions per game for their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the lower 80s range. Today, UK had 78 possessions while Vandy managed only 72 possessions, a very slow pace.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.163 ppp, which is well above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK and stands at the highest level since about this same stage of the season in 2005. A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against Vandy would signal continued improvement by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0..150 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases. The NGE for today was -0.141 ppp in this Kentucky loss.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3.8 through the first 18 games. Vanderbilt is probably a worse rebounding team than UK , and I expect UK to win this battle for a change on Saturday, with UK securing one more offensive rebound than the Commodores for the game. Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards in the game today, +6.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On January 24, 2007 , UK will play its twentieth regular season game and its sixth SEC game of the season against Georgia at Athens.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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