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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

25
Kentucky Begins The Final Eleven Games
At Georgia

Pre-Game Analysis:

When the UKAA announced the schedule for the 2006-07 season in August, it did not take long to see that after a difficult start in November and early December, the schedule would lighten up until the final 11 games. The forecasts for the first 19 varied among prognosticators, but generally folks believed that UK would arrive at the 19 game mark with 3 to 6 losses. The actual record is 4 losses, a 15-4 record.

The final 11 games have arrived. This stretch run for the Cats begins in Athens , Georgia on Wednesday night, followed by Tennessee at Rupp and Arkansas on the road before the Cats will get a breather when USC comes to Rupp for the rematch, following the “poleaxing” that the Cats delivered barely one week ago. Then the final seven will have not a single breather among them.

After the first two and one half weeks of SEC play, only Florida stands undefeated, followed by Kentucky with only one loss. After 4 games for some and 5 games for others, six teams stand with two conference losses. Arkansas and Auburn each have three losses, and USC and Mississippi each have suffered losses on four occasions

Last week was a tale of two teams for the Kentucky Wildcats. On Tuesday night, they dominated a clearly inferior USC team on the road, and then on Saturday, the Cats lost at Rupp to Vanderbilt for the second year in a row, and for the third consecutive game against the Commodores.

Kentucky brings a 15-4, 4-1 record into Wednesday's game against the 11-6, 3-2 Georgia Bulldogs. These teams have played two common SEC opponents along the way, USC and Vanderbilt. Georgia beat both, and UK holds a 1-1 record in these two games. Four of Georgia 's six loses have occurred on the road, at Georgia Tech by 9, at Clemson by 15, at Florida by 16, and at Alabama by 2. Georgia also lost twice at home to Western Kentucky by 3 and Wisconsin by 10. On the “W” side of the Bulldog ledger, Georgia has two nice victories to its credit: #24 Arkansas by 3 on the road, and #44 Gonzaga by 13. All ranking numbers presented above are the current RPI rankings, per Pomeroy.

Kentucky is coming off a home loss to Vanderbilt, ending their eleven (11) game winning streak. Georgia is also coming off a loss to Alabama , and had won three in a row prior to that loss.

Through seventeen games against D1 competition, Georgia “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5811 and a RPI ranking of #49, which is only the fifth UK opponent thus far that is currently holding a top 50 RPI ranking. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Georgia as the #31ranked team, and Kentucky is the #14 ranked team. Georgia has the highest Pomeroy ranking of a UK opponent since Indiana . Pomeroy projects a 1-point Kentucky loss to Georgia [70-69], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 43%.

Kentucky averages 79.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.8 possessions per game. Georgia currently averages 87.6 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 84.6 possessions per game. Unlike UK , Georgia has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by +3 while UK stands at -3. To draw this important contrast more clearly, UK grabs an NCAA average 33.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Georgia is among the best in the SEC, grabbing 40.9% of its misses..

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Georgia averages one turnover for each 5.2 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Georgia forces one turnover for each 4.7 opponent possessions. Georgia 's offensive efficiency has been 0.919 ppp and 80.5 points per game. Georgia 's defensive efficiency has been 0.796 ppp while holding opponents to 67.4 ppg. Their NGE is 0.123 ppp.

Kentucky has posted lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.909 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.761 ppp on about 63 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.148 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5811 for Vanderbilt and 0.6212 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Georgia has been playing at a faster pace, 87 possessions per game for themselves and 84 possessions per game for their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.148 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.075 ppp against Georgia would signal a return to winning play by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than -0.075 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. Georgia is perhaps one of the strongest offensive rebounding teams in the SEC this season, +3 and grabbing nearly 41% of its misses I expect Georgia to win this battle again on Wednesday night, +3.

Based on this performance data for Georgia and UK to date, which includes nineteen regular season games and five SEC games for Kentucky and seventeen/five for Georgia, Georgia is a 1-point favorite, 71-70 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 85 possessions for Georgia . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.859 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.835 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his same starting lineup for this game, Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

This game begins at a very slow, deliberate pace, much more to UK 's liking than Georgia , and at the first TV timeout, the teams have battled even, 6-6, with the principle differences being UK shooting 2 for 3 and UGA hitting 3 or 6 with two offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points. UK committed 2 turnovers, to UGA'a one turnover. In the second segment, a prolonged one that carried to about the 10 minute mark, both the pace and the scoring efficiencies improved. UK score 15 points on its 12 possessions of the segment while UGA only managed 11 points on its 13 possessions of the segment, giving UK a 21-17 lead at the end of segment 2. Crawford is off to a great start with 13 of UK 's first 21 points.

In the third segment, Kentucky continued its hot shooting, hit the offensive boards, and extended their early lead from 4 to 12 points, 33-21 at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:42 to play in the first half. UK continued its blitz of the Bulldogs out of the TV timeout, and extended their lead to 17 points, 43-26 with 2:33 to play in the half, forcing a Georgia timeout to stop the run. Morris picked up his second foul of the game during this segment, but instead of going to the bench for the remainder of the half, Tubby Smith left Morris in the game, and he proceeded to pick up #3 with over 3 minutes to play in the half. Georgia scored the last 4 points of the half, cutting UK 's 17 point lead to 13 at the intermission.

The pace is about 78 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for Georgia . Kentucky had a +3 advantage on the boards, 19-16, but Georgia controlled the offensive glass, 6-4 for a +2 edge.

Georgia had an offensive efficiency of 0.686 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 1.114 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

Neither team shot many free throws during the first half, UK was 6 for 7 [85.7%] and Georgia was 4-7 [57.1%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 17-31 overall [56.7%] and an average 3-9 from long range [33.3%]. For Georgia , their field goal shooting overall was 12-32 [37.5%] and a very poor 2-15 [13.3%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.5 possessions and Georgia committed 6 turnovers for the half, one for every 6.8 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 72 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 29 points, while Georgia needs 42 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 78 possessions for the game for UK and 82 possessions for Georgia .. Georgia scored its the 72 nd point tonight on a Gaines three point shot with under 1:45 to play in overtime, and moving Georgia up 73-69. The teams played out the last two and a half minute of the games and Georgia closed the deal 78-69, handing UK its second straight loss.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky starts the second half with Morris on the bench with the three fouls, and Georgia begins to immediately take the ball inside against Obrzut. Georgia took it inside often in the early moments of the second half, scoring the first 8 points and cutting the halftime lead to only 5 points, 43-38, forcing a timeout by Tubby Smith at the 16:27 mark of the second half. This 8 point run, coupled with the final four points of the first half provides Georgia with a 12-0 run at the timeout.

Morris returns to the game out of the timeout. The Cats responded out of the timeout, and stopped the Georgia run by starting one of their own, scoring 9 straight points to extend the lead back into double digits at 52-38 with 12:40 to play in the game, and the teams went to their benches for the under 12 TV timeout with UK holding to a 12 point lead, 52-40.

However, Georgia was not willing to simply fold its tent and concede the game. Over the next 6 minutes, Georgia took control of the game, and regained the lead at 57-55 with 5:32 to play. Georgia extended its lead to 5 points, 65-60 before UK tied it at 65, as the game ended regulation tied 65-65. Joe Crawford led this Cat comeback with the last 8 points.

In overtime, UK scored first, but Georgia responded with the next 5 to go up 70-67. After a Crawford basket cut the lead to 1 point, but that would be UK 's last score in the game, and Georgia scored the last 8 points to hand UK their second loss in a row, 78-69.

Kentucky lost the rebounding battles during the game, 43-31. Kentucky also lost the battle of the offensive boards today, 17-8. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 4 second chance points and Georgia used its 17 second chance opportunities to post only 17 second chance points.

Georgia had an offensive efficiency of 0.836 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 17 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.867 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.916 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.873 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a low 23.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Georgia was able to convert a powerful 42.5 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot about its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 11-16 [68.8%] Georgia was much less effective from the free throw line tonight making 11-20 [55.0%]. UK's field goal shooting for UK was below average, 45.6% [26-57] overall and a weak 6-21 [28.6%] from long range Georgia's field goal shooting overall was strong throughout the game, 31-66 [47.0%] and a very weak 22.7% from long range, 5-22.

Kentucky committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.6 possessions. Georgia also committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.4 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Georgia has been playing at a faster pace, 87 possessions per game for themselves and 84 possessions per game for their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 80s range. UK had 79 possessions tonight, and Georgia had 90 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.148 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.075 ppp against Georgia would signal a return to winning play by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than -0.075 ppp will signal renewed difficulty as the strength of opponents increases. The NGE for the game was -0.003 points per possession, and the margin of victory was gained by Georgia 's superior offensive rebounding, and its efficient use of its 17 second chance possessions.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. Georgia is perhaps one of the strongest offensive rebounding teams in the SEC this season, +3 and grabbing nearly 41% of its misses I expect Georgia to win this battle again on Wednesday night, +3. Tonight, Georgia won the offensive rebounding battle 17-8, +9.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On January 28, 2007 , UK will play its twenty first regular season game and its seventh SEC game of the season against Tennessee at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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