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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

26
Kentucky Defeats Tennessee [Sans Lofton] by 19
To End Two Game Skid

Pre-Game Analysis:

The final 12 games are now two games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 0-2 as they return to Rupp Arena on Sunday at 1 pm to take on an ailing Tennessee team, and possibly an ailing Tennessee star, Chris Lofton. According to some reports at UT sites, Lofton's ankle is healing, but his status for Sunday's game remains doubtful. However, I am doubtful about those doubtful reports as this game must be among the most important contests for Chris Lofton, against his home state school that spurned him during the recruiting battles.

After the first three weeks of SEC play, only Florida stands undefeated, followed by Kentucky , and a host of others with two losses, and an even larger contingent with three losses. Kentucky has lost its last two outings after a perfect 4-0 SEC start. Last week, the Cats allowed Vanderbilt to leave Rupp with their second straight win at Rupp and their third straight win over the Cats, overall. Then on Wednesday night, the Cats exploded in the first half to build a 17 point lead, only to falter again by 9 points in overtime to Georgia .

Kentucky brings a 15-5, 4-2 record into Sunday's game against the 14-6, 2-3 Tennessee Volunteers. These teams have played two common non-conference opponents. Both teams lost to North Carlina , UT by 14 on a neutral court [101-87] and UK by 12 at UNC [75-63].. However, while UK lost to Memphis by 17 [80-63] on a neutral court, Tennessee defeated Memphis by 18 in Knoxville [76-58]. In SEC play, Kentucky has played all five of the UT opponents: Mississippi State [UT by 8; UK by 4], Vanderbilt [UT loses by 2; UK loses by 5], Auburn [UT loses by 3; UK wins by 27], South Carolina [UT by 3; UK by 38], and Mississippi [UT loses by 14; UK wins by 10]. UK has played one more SEC game thus far, their Wednesday night loss to Georgia .

Tennessee has sustained three non-conference losses this season, just as UK has. UT's losses have been to the aforementioned UNC [#2], Butler [#18], and Ohio State [#8]. All Cat Fans know that their three non-conference losses have been to #2 UNC, #1 UCLA, and #16 Memphis . On the win side of the ledger, UK has only its 5 point victory at Rupp over #22 Indiana to provide confidence while UT claims victories over #16 Memphis , #11 Oklahoma State , and #52 Texas . All ranking numbers presented above are the current RPI rankings, per Pomeroy.

Kentucky is coming back to back losses for the second time this season, while Tennessee is coming off a 14 point road loss to Mississippi . More important to the Tennessee Volunteers, however, is not the L's in the win-loss columns but the loss of their star, Chris Lofton to an ankle injury last weekend. He did not play the majority of the second half against South Carolina that saw UT lose a significant halftime lead before salvaging a 3 point win at home, and Lofton did not play in the big loss to Mississippi . Lofton's status for Sunday's game at Rupp remains doubtful, just hours prior to tipoff.

Through eighteen games against D1 competition, Tennessee “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5952 and a RPI ranking of #21, which is only the sixth UK opponent thus far that is currently holding a top 50 RPI ranking. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Tennessee as the #53 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #19 ranked team. Pomeroy projects an 11-point Kentucky win over Tennessee [82-71], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 83%.

Kentucky averages 79.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 83.2 possessions per game. Tennessee currently averages 91.4 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 88.9 possessions per game. Unlike UK , Tennessee has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by +2.5 while UK stands at -3.8. To draw this important contrast more clearly, UK grabs an NCAA average 32.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Tennessee grabs an above average 35.5% of its misses..

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Tennessee averages one turnover for each 5.8 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Tennessee forces one turnover for each 4.6 opponent possessions. Tennessee 's offensive efficiency has been 0.902 ppp and 82.5 points per game. Tennessee 's defensive efficiency has been 0.842 ppp while holding opponents to 74.8 ppg. Their NGE is 0.060 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.907 ppp while scoring about 72 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.766 ppp on about 64 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.141 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5952 for Tennessee and 0.6198 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Tennessee has been playing at a much faster pace, 91 possessions per game for themselves and 89 possessions per game for their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.148 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp against Tennessee would signal a return to winning play by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0.100 ppp will signal continuing difficulty against SEC competition.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect Tennessee to win this battle again on Sunday afternoon, +2.

Based on this performance data for Tennessee [No Adjustment for Lofton's status or injury] and UK to date, which includes twenty regular season games and six SEC games for Kentucky and eighteen/five for Tennessee , Kentucky is a 15-point favorite, 81-66 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 85 possessions for UK and 87 possessions for Tennessee . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.959 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.759 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his same starting lineup for this game, Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman. Tennessee is playing without their leading scorer, and Kentucky native Chris Lofton.

Tennessee opens by hitting 3 of their first 4 shots as they sprint out to a 7-0 lead early. However, UK responded after a shaky first 2 minutes to close the gap to 2 points, 10-7 at the end of the first mini-game at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats catch up at 10 out of the timeout, and after UT answered with 3 points of their own, UK took their first lead of the game, 15-13, on a Bradley 3 just before the teams took their benches for the under 12 TV timeout, and Kentucky has possession..

In the early going, the pace and the scoring rates are more akin to UK 's preferences rather than Tennessee 's. The pace is about 75 to 80 possessions rather than UT preferred 90 possession pace, and the scoring is on pace for the low 70s to upper 60s.

Out of the timeout, Stevenson hit a 16 foot jump shot, and Morris committed his second foul of the game, forcing him to the bench. In response, UT immediately went inside for a basket, and force a turnover for another basket, tying the score at 17-17. The teams traded punches for the next 4 minutes, with UK still clinging to a 2 point lead, 24-22 at the under 8 TV timeout at the 6:46 mark of the first half. Derek Jasper also picked upon his second foul of the game, relegating him to the bench. However, Perry Stevenson and Jodie Meeks have responded to their calls, accounting for 7 of UK 's 9 points during that segment of the game following the fouls by Morris and Jasper.

Out of this timeout, UK committed four straight turnovers, and UT took advantage of these UK miscues to tie the game at 24, and eventually forcing Tubby Smith into an unscheduled timeout. Out of this timeout, UT hit a three from the corner to regain the lead 27-24. The teams then battled to a 29-29 tie at the under 4 TV timeout, with 2:36 to play in the first half.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, with a +6 offensive rebounding edge, and a 12-0 advantage in second chance points. UT has answered with a very efficient offensive performance, scoring its 29 points on 31 possessions. However, the pace favors the cats at this point of the game. In the last 2 ½ minutes, UT made a three and UK got the last basket of the half, off a UT turnover, for a 32-31 UT halftime lead.

The pace is about 84 possessions for UK and 72 possessions for Tennessee . Kentucky had a +5 advantage on the boards, 21-16, and UK controlled the offensive glass, 9-3 for a rare +6 edge.

Tennessee had an offensive efficiency of 0.964 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.576 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

Neither team shot many free throws during the first half, UK was 5 for 6 [83.3%] and Tennessee was 1-2 [50.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 11-33 overall [33.3%] and a weak 4-16 from long range [25.0%]. For Tennessee , their field goal shooting overall was 13-28 [46.4%] and a poor 5-15 [33.3%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 7.0 possessions and Tennessee committed 6 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.8 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 64 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while Tennessee needs 32 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 82 possessions for the game for UK and 70 possessions for Tennessee .. Kentucky scored its 64 th point today on a Bradley three point shot with under 5:10 to play, moving UK to a 64-48 lead. The teams played out the last 5 minutes and Kentucky closed the deal 76-57, stopping the Cats' 2-game skid..

Second Half Summary:

The second half starts with UK making 4 quick turnovers, but UT was unable to capitalize on these opportunities, and UK eased out to a 1 point lead of its own, 39-38 at the under 16 TV timeout. As with the first segment, UK continued to commit turnovers [3 more] but UT remains unable to take advantage of these opportunities by committing three more of their own during the segment. UK takes a 3 points lead [45-42] to the bench at the under 12 TV timeout.

After Tennessee cut the Kentucky lead to 1 point, 47-46, the Cats explode on the Volunteers with a 11-2 run for the first double-digit lead of the game for either team. UT had held a 7-0 lead early in the game, but since the teams settled into the game, the spread has been fluccuating between 4 points in either direction until this point of the game. UT called a timeout, with 7:27 to play in the game. Kentucky 's overall shooting percentage has finally edged ahead of Tennessee .

The blitz by Kentucky continued after this timeout, and the Cats extended their lead to 69-51, 18-points, at the under 4 TV timeout with about 3 ½ minutes to go in the game. Kentucky took care of business down the stretch to send the Volunteers back to Knoxville a 19-point loser, 76-57.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 42-27. Kentucky also won the battle of the offensive boards today, 13-7. Kentucky converted its 13 second chance opportunities into 19 second chance points and Tennessee used its 7 second chance opportunities to post only 6 second chance points.

Tennessee had an offensive efficiency of 0.750 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.760 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.826 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.462 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.927 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a strong 39.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Tennessee was able to convert a weak 19.4 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line tonight, converting 11-13 [84.6%] Tennessee was much less effective from the free throw line tonight making 5-10 [50.0%]. UK's field goal shooting was about average, 45.8% [27-59] overall and a strong 11-27 [40.7%] from long range Tennessee's field goal shooting overall was weak throughout the game, 22-58 [37.9%] and a very weak 29.6% from long range, 8-27.

Kentucky committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.8 possessions. Tennessee committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.2 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Tennessee has been playing at a much faster pace, 91 possessions per game for themselves and 89 possessions per game for their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 80s range. Kentucky had 81 possessions and Tennessee had only 75 possessions for the game.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.148 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.300 ppp against Tennessee would signal a return to winning play by the Cats, while a game NGE of less than 0.100 ppp will signal continuing difficulty against SEC competition. Today's game NGE was 0.188 points per possession.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect Tennessee to win this battle again on Sunday afternoon, +2. Kentucky dominated the boards today, and earned a +6 offensive rebounding margin for the game that produced an advantage on second chance points of 19-6.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “C” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On February 3, 2007 , UK will play its twenty second regular season game and its eighth SEC game of the season against Arkansas at Fayetteville .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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