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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

27
Kentucky Travels To Arkansas To Resume Final Push
In 2007 SEC Season

Pre-Game Analysis:

On January 29, 2006 , a Sunday afternoon at Rupp Arena , Kentucky managed to defeat a strong Arkansas team 78-76. In that game, Arkansas built a substantial lead, 39-23, early in the second half only to have the Cats claw their way back into the game with a 10-1 run leading to the under 16 TV timeout at 40-33. The teams then played on relatively even terms for the next 10 minutes as Kentucky chipped away at the remaining 7 point lead until taking the lead at 60-59 with about 6 minutes to play.

This Saturday, Stan Heath and his Hogs get an opportunity to avenge the game they let get away last year at Rupp when the Kentucky Wildcats come to Bud Walton Arena.

The final 12 games are now three games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 1-2 after they defeated an ailing Tennessee team last Sunday at Rupp.

As teams approach the mid-point of the 2007 SEC schedule, Florida stands undefeated (7-0), followed by Kentucky (5-2). All other SEC teams have 3 to 5 losses, and Arkansas is log jammed in the middle of the pack with 4 losses (3-4). Kentucky has lost two of its last three games after a perfect 4-0 SEC start. Arkansas has won two of its last three games after a poor 1-3 start in SEC play.

Kentucky brings a 16-5, 5-2 record into Saturday's game against the 14-7, 3-4 Arkansas Razorbacks. These teams have not played any common non-conference opponents. In SEC play, Kentucky and Arkansas have both played South Carolina , Georgia , and Mississippi . A comparison of those common opponents follows:

Opponent                Kentucky Venue        Arkansas Venue

                And Result                And Result

Mississippi           Away, W 68-58         Away, L 72-74

Georgia                Away, L 69-78, OT    Home, L 64-67

S. Carolina           Away, W 87-49         Away, L 60-66

Arkansas has sustained three non-conference losses this season, just as UK has. Arkansas 's losses have been at Missouri [#55], to Texas Tech [#50] in Little Rock , and at Texas [#33]. All Cat Fans know that their three non-conference losses have been to #1 UNC, #7 UCLA, and #12 Memphis . On the win side of the ledger, UK has only its 5 point victory at Rupp over #22 Indiana to provide confidence while the Hogs claims victories over #45 West Virginia , #11 Southern Illinois , and a home&home sweep of SEC rival #26 Alabama . All ranking numbers presented above are the current RPI rankings, per Pomeroy.

Kentucky has lost 2 of their last three games for the second time this season, and could lose three out of four for the second time this season with a loss at Arkansas .

Through twenty-one games against D1 competition, Arkansas “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.6012 and a RPI ranking of #25, which is the seventh UK opponent thus far that is currently holding a top 50 RPI ranking. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Arkansas as the #29 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #13 ranked team. Pomeroy projects an 1-point Kentucky loss to Arkansas [66-65], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 47%.

Kentucky averages 79.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.8 possessions per game. Arkansas currently averages 80.0 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 80.2 possessions per game. Unlike UK , Arkansas has been holding its own in the offensive rebounding battles by -0.2 while UK stands at -3.1. To draw this important contrast more clearly, UK grabs an NCAA average 33.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Arkansas grabs an above average 35.1% of its misses.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Arkansas averages one turnover for each 5.0 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Arkansas forces one turnover for each 5.3 opponent possessions. Arkansas 's offensive efficiency has been 0.898 ppp and 71.8 points per game. Arkansas 's defensive efficiency has been 0.788 ppp while holding opponents to 63.2 ppg. Their NGE is 0.109 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.908 ppp while scoring about 72.3 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.766 ppp on about 63.4 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.142 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.6012 for Arkansas and 0.6227 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Arkansas has been playing at about the same pace as UK , 80 to 81 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the 80 to 82 range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.142 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Arkansas would signal a strong Cat performance against the Hogs, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will signal a poor overall performance against the Hogs..

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect Arkansas to win this battle again on Saturday afternoon, +1.

Based on this performance data for Arkansas and UK to date, which includes twenty one regular season games and seven SEC games for Kentucky and Arkansas , Arkansas is a 1-point favorite, 68-67 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for Arkansas . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.838 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.840 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 68 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his same starting lineup for this game, Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. Since this starting lineup began, the UK turnover frequency has been improving. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Arkansas opens by hitting 4 of their first 6 shots as they sprint out to a 10-5 lead early, at the first TV timeout. However, UK responded after the shaky first 4 minutes by scoring the next 7 to take their first lead of the game, 12-10, and 16-13 at the second TV timeout. In the early going, the game pace is about 80 possessions for both teams. UK has an advantage with turnovers, 3-4, and Arkansas has the early offensive rebounding advantage, 2-1.

Kentucky continued to apply great defensive pressure, forcing a total of 7 turnovers in the first 14 minutes of play and establishing a solid 7 point lead, 25-18 with about 6:40 to play in the first half. In the first third of this game, UK has scored its 25 points on 23 possessions [1.087 ppp] while Arkansas has only gotten 18 points on its 24 possessions, 0.750 ppp].

Out of the timeout, Kentucky extended its lead to 8 points, 26-18 on 1 of 2 free throws, but Arkansas awoke from its 10+ minute siesta and responded with 6 straight points of their own to cut the lead back to 2 points, 26-24 at the under 4 TV timeout in the first half. Arkansas continued their run out of the timeout, regaining the lead at 29-26 before a Morris put back stopped the run. However, Arkansas finished strong, taking a 35-30 lead to the locker room at the half.

Arkansas has controlled the boards in this half, 15-11 in total rebounds and 3-2 on the offensive boards for a +1 offensive rebounding margin. Arkansas also has a 4-2 advantage in second chance points in the first half. Arkansas a very efficient offensive performance, scoring its 35 points on 34 possessions. However, the pace favors the cats at this point of the game, an under 70 possession pace for the game.

The pace is about 66 possessions for UK and 70 possessions for Arkansas . Arkansas had a +1 advantage on the boards, 13-12, and the Hogs controlled the offensive glass, 3-2 for a +1 edge.

Arkansas had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.875 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions.

Neither team shot many free throws during the first half, UK was 2 for 4 [50.0%] and Arkansas was 1-3 [33.3%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 13-26 overall [50.0%] and a weak 2-6 from long range [33.3%]. For Arkansas , their field goal shooting overall was 14-25 [56.0%] and a very strong 6-12 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 5.7 possessions and Arkansas committed 8 turnovers for the half, one for every 4.2 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 68 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while Arkansas needs 33 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 68 possessions for the game for UK and 68 possessions for Arkansas . Kentucky scored its 68 th point today on a Meeks run out off a steal to move UIK up by 8 points, 68-60 with 3:10 to play. Kentucky closed the deal 82-74.

Second Half Summary:

The second half starts with Arkansas outscoring the Cats 8-1 in the first 3 minutes, forcing an unscheduled timeout by UK, trailing by 12, 43-31. In this early going, UK missed all three shots, only made 1 of 4 free throw attempts and committed a turnover while Arkansas hit 3 of its 4 shots, and both free throws with an offensive rebound and two turnovers prior to this timeout. Out of the timeout, Morris was on the bench, and Arkansas scored again, establishing their longest lead at 45-31 before the Cats answered with a Bradley 3.

With 6 minutes to play in the first half to the 16 minute mark of the second half, Arkansas out scored the Cats 27-6.

Kentucky responds to this huge Arkansas run with a 8-0 run of its own, forcing an Arkansas timeout with the score to 45-39, by 6 points. The teams played on even terms for the remained of the second game segment, with Arkansas clinging to a 5-point lead, 49-44 at the under 12 TV timeout. With about 12 minutes to play, UK holds an advantage on turnovers, 14-8 and have gone to war on the offensive boards in the second half to gain a +5 advantage on the offensive boards, converting their second chance opportunities into 5 second half second chance points.

Out of the timeout, Morris returns to the UK lineup.

Kentucky continued its comeback out of the timeout, and Morris came off the bench ready to play. In the next 6 minutes, UK outscored Arkansas 15-6, to take a 4 point lead with 6:17 to play. After UK extended its lead to 8 points [63-55], Arkansas made five straight, but a three by Bradley and a run out off a steal by Meeks reestablished the 8 point lead at 8 point, 68-60. The Cats won this game with a run of 37-15, overcoming a 14 point deficit and generating this 8-point lead. The Cats play out the final 3 minutes to secure a huge road victory, 82-74.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 28-27. Kentucky also won the battle of the offensive boards today, 10-7, +3. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 10 second chance points and Arkansas used its 7 second chance opportunities to post only 4 second chance points.

Arkansas had an offensive efficiency of 1.029 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.574 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.987 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.044 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.038 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed an average 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Arkansas was able to convert a weak 28.0 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well down the stretch from the free throw line tonight, converting 12-14 in the final three minutes of the game, and 15-22 for the game [68.2%] Arkansas was more effective from the free throw line but got fewer opportunities making 8-11 [72.7%]. UK 's field goal shooting was above average, 51.8% [29-56] overall and a strong 9-17 [52.9%] from long range Arkansas 's field goal shooting overall was also strong throughout the game, 28-56 [54.9%] and a strong 47.6% from long range, 10-21.

Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.6 possessions. Arkansas committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.9 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Arkansas has been playing at about the same pace as UK , 80 to 81 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the 80 to 82 range. Today, UK had 79 possessions and Arkansas had 75 possessions

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.142 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Arkansas would signal a strong Cat performance against the Hogs, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will signal a poor overall performance against the Hogs.. The game NGE today was 0.051 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect Arkansas to win this battle again on Saturday afternoon, +1. Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards today, 10-7, +3.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “A” and a rare “D-” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On February 7, 2007 , UK will play its twenty third regular season game and its nineth SEC game of the season against South Carolina at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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