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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
28
Kentucky Passes SEC Mid-Point In Second Place;
Returns To Rupp For Rematch With South Carolina
Pre-Game Analysis:
Three weeks ago, the Kentucky Wildcats traveled to Columbia , South Carolina and delivered their annual poleaxing of the Gamecocks [NGE for Game: 0.572 ppp]. On Wednesday night, these teams meet for the rematch at Rupp Arena in Lexington . There was little doubt prior to the first meeting about the better team or the outcome of that game, and there is little doubt about the better team and outcome on Wednesday night. Kentucky is the better team and will win this game.
However, no one should expect a repeat of the poleaxing that the Cats handed the Gamecocks last month. Those disparate game performances are very rare, only occur once a season for Kentucky under Tubby Smith. This rematch will be closer than the 87-49 margin in the first game.
The final 12 games are now four games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 2-2 after they defeated an ailing Tennessee team at Rupp and erased a 14 point second half deficit in defeating Arkansas on Saturday in Fayetteville . The USC game is the last breather in the final stretch run.
At the mid-point of the 2007 SEC schedule, Florida stands undefeated (8-0), followed by Kentucky (6-2) and Vanderbilt (6-3). All other SEC teams have 4 to 6 losses, and USC is one of the two six-loss SEC teams at this time.
Kentucky brings a 17-5, 6-2 record into Wednesday's game against the 12-9, 2-6 South Carolina Gamecocks.
Through twenty-one games against D1 competition, South Carolina “boasts” a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5664 and a RPI ranking of #81. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place USC as the #125 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #12 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 19-point Kentucky win over USC [74-55], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 97%.
Kentucky averages 79.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.5 possessions per game. USC currently averages 73.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 74.1 possessions per game. Like UK , USC has been struggling this season on the offensive rebounding battles by -0.3 while UK stands at -2.8. While both teams grab an NCAA average 33.3% of their own misses as offensive reboundings, USC has done a poorer job keeping its opponents off the offensive boards [UK Opp's 33.0% to USC Opp's 36.3%].
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and USC averages one turnover for each 6.2 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while USC forces one turnover for each 6.0 opponent possessions. USC's offensive efficiency has been 0.858 ppp and 63.3 points per game. USC's defensive efficiency has been 0.890 ppp while holding opponents to 66.0 ppg. Their NGE is -0.032 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.914 ppp while scoring about 72.8 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.775 ppp on about 63.9 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.138 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.6212 for Kentucky and 0.5664 for USC.
I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.
• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. USC has been playing at about the same pace as UK , 80 to 81 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 70s range.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.138 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.400 ppp against USC would signal another strong Cat performance against the Gamecocks, while a game NGE of less than 0.200 ppp will signal a poor overall performance against a SEC bottomfeeder.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect the offensive rebounding in this game will be a dead heat.
Based on this performance data for Arkansas and UK to date, which includes twenty two regular season games and eight SEC games for Kentucky and twenty-one regular season games and eight SEC games for USC, Kentucky is a 23-point favorite, 78-55 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and USC. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 1.006 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.705 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 68 points.
| NGE Method Prediction including SOS Factoring | |||||
| Including Adjustments for Strength of Schedule and Venue | |||||
| Statistical Measure | Kentucky |
USC |
|||
| Points | Percents |
78 |
55 |
Percents |
|
| FGM | 58.3% |
29 |
21 |
40.0% |
|
| FGA | 52.7% |
55 |
58 |
36.2% |
|
| 3PTM | 8 |
7 |
|||
| 3PTA | 42.1% |
19 |
23 |
30.4% |
|
| FTM | 12 |
6 |
|||
| FTA | 70.6% |
17 |
15 |
40.0% |
|
| TO | 14 |
13 |
|||
| REB | 9 |
36 |
32 |
14 |
|
| Possessions | 78 |
78 |
|||
| PPP | 0.3013 |
1.0065 |
0.7051 |
||
| POWER OF GAME | 142.7% |
70.1% |
|||
Game Summary:
Tubby changed his same starting lineup for this game, sitting Morris for Obrzut, along with the regular starters of Jasper, Bradley, Crawford, and Perry. This lineup consists of two seniors, two juniors, and a freshman.
Due to prior commitments, I missed the broadcast of this game. In the first half, UK established an impressive 22 point lead, 50-28 at the intermission. Early in the second half, Kentucky extended that lead to 28 points 63-35 with 16:23 to play. Howevr, South Carolina fought back into the game, cutting the lead to 5 points inside the last minutes of the game before falling to the Cats at Rupp by 6 points, 95-89.
Both teams grabbed a total of 35 rebounds for the game, but South Carolina won the battle of the offensive boards, 15-11 Kentucky converted its 11 second chance opportunities into 12 second chance points and South Carolina used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 12 second chance points.
South Carolina had an offensive efficiency of 1.055 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.011 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.107 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.091 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.105 ppp for the game..
UK grabbed an above average 35.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while South Carolina was able to convert a weak 38.5 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot poorly down the stretch from the free throw line tonight, converting 11-17 in the final seven minutes of the game, and 25-33 for the game [75.8%] South Carolina was less effective from the free throw line and got fewer opportunities making 11-16 [68.8%]. UK's field goal shooting was above average, 52.5% [31-59] overall and a strong 8-23 [34.8%] from long range South Carolina's field goal shooting overall was also strong throughout the game, 33-69 [47.8%] and a strong 40.0% from long range, 12-30.
Kentucky committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.8 possessions. South Carolina committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.0 possessions.
Some fans are saying that they are glad to see a return to up tempo play in the aftermath of this game, which saw a Tubby Smith team break the 90 point barrier for the first time since February 19, 2005 when the Cats beat Mississippi State 94-78. However, this claim of a Tubby Smith team returning to up-tempo requires examination.
In the first half of this game, Kentucky "raced" out to a huge 22 point lead, 50-28. In the second half, USC outscored UK 61-45. For the game, USC had 88 possessions, and UK had 86 possessions. I certainly agree that 86 possessions is about 10% "faster" than UK's average pace this year [79.6 possessions per game], and USC's 88 possessions is about 20% higher than USC's average pace this season [73.4 possessions per game]. However, when we examine this issue by half, it seems that the team that not only forced the faster pace, but the team that benefitted from the faster pace was USC not UK.
In the first half of the game, UK had 40 possessions from which they produced 50 points. USC had 40 possessions to generate their 28 points. This is a very typical pace of about 80 possessions per game, and UK excelled with an offensive efficiency of 1.250 points per possession while USC only managed 0.700 ppp. The NGE for the first half was +0.550 ppp, which is clearly in the "poleaxing" range with a typical 80 possession pace.
In the second half, not only did the pace change, but the respective efficiencies changed as well. In the second half, UK had 46 possessions, and scored 45 points while USC had 48 possessions for their 61 points. This new pace is equivalent to 92 possessions per game for UK and 96 possessions per game for USC. Surely, we can agree that game pace in the 90-100 possession per game range is "up-tempo" and is consistent with the average pace posted by the 8 UK teams that Rick Pitino produced. However, to conclude that Tubby Smith's team was either responsible for this marked shift in pace or benefitted from it is a stretch.
In the second half, UK's offensive efficiency was 0.972 ppp [down from 1.250 ppp in the first half], and USC's efficiency was 1.271 ppp [up from 0.700 ppp in the first half]. The NGE for the second half was -0.299 ppp. USC forced the tempo, as their only means of climbing back into the potential repeat "poleaxing" game. That strategy worked for the Gamecocks, and was not beneficial for the Cats who hung on at the end as their 28 point lead evaporated before the full house of Rupp Arena witnesses.
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.
• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. USC has been playing at about the same pace as UK , 80 to 81 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid to upper 70s range. Tonight, Kentucky had a total of 86 possessions for the game, and USC had a total of 88 possessioins.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.138 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.400 ppp against USC would signal another strong Cat performance against the Gamecocks, while a game NGE of less than 0.200 ppp will signal a poor overall performance against a SEC bottomfeeder. Tonight's game NGE was 0.093 points per possession.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect the offensive rebounding in this game will be a dead heat. South Carolina won the battle of the offensive boards, +4 tonight.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below:
Next Game On Schedule:
On February 9, 2007 , UK will play its twenty fourth regular season game and its tenth SEC game of the season against Florida at Rupp Arena.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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