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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

29
Kentucky Begins Final Push of the 2006-07 Season
Gators Will Be First and Last In Crucial Seven Game Finish

Pre-Game Analysis:

Florida has now defeated the Kentucky Wildcats four straight games. This has only been done by five other programs in the post-1930 history of Kentucky basketball. Non-conference foes who have accomplished this feat include Duke, Indiana , and North Carolina . Prior to Florida , the only SEC teams able to manage the four-peat have been Vanderbilt and Tennessee .

This evening, Florida will be trying to remain undefeated in SEC play and turn the trick on the Cats for the fifth straight time, something that only Indiana (5) and North Carolina (6) have done before. This is uncharted territory for the Gators, and rarely traveled rough seas for the Cats.

This game is huge for both teams. For Kentucky, it is a must win situation because a loss to Florida at Rupp Arena will effectively take Kentucky out of the hunt for a regular season SEC championship, and give Florida the inside track to get that job done. Then there is the matter of the five in a row. For Florida , in addition to effectively sealing up the regular season SEC title, Florida is only two wins shy of an all time Florida winning streak, currently at 15 in a row. Lastly, ESPN recognizes the significance of this game, selecting it as the game of the week for its College Game Day programming.

The final 12 games for Kentucky are now five games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 3-2 after they defeated a weak South Carolina team on Wednesday at Rupp. There are no more breathers left on the schedule with Florida twice, at Tennessee , at Alabama , at Vanderbilt, LSU at Rupp, and Georgia at Rupp.

Florida remains undefeated (9-0), followed by Kentucky (7-2). Vanderbilt currently is 6-3 and Alabama is 5-4. All other SEC teams have 5 to 7 losses. Kentucky has won three in a row coming into this game, and Florida is undefeated in SEC play, and riding a 15 game win streak.

Kentucky brings a 18-5, 7-2 record into Saturday's game against the 22-2, 9-0 Florida Gators. These teams have played one common non-conference opponent, Chattanooga . Florida defeated Chattanooga by 49 points, 93-44 while the Cats beat Chattanooga by 16 points, 79-63.

Florida has sustained two non-conference losses this season, at Kansas [#19] by 2 oints in overtime, and at Florida State [#18] by 4. Florida has claimed an impressive non-conference victory over Ohio State [#4] by 26 points. All Cat Fans know that their three non-conference losses have been to #1 UNC, #7 UCLA, and #12 Memphis. On the win side of the ledger, UK has only its 5 point victory at Rupp over #22 Indiana to provide confidence. All ranking numbers presented above are the current RPI rankings, per Pomeroy.

Through twenty-four games against D1 competition, Florida can only claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5436 and a RPI ranking of #9, which is the fourth UK opponent thus far that is currently holding a top 10 RPI ranking. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Florida as the #2 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #15 ranked team. Pomeroy projects an 3-point Kentucky loss to Florida [72-69], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 38%.

Kentucky averages 79.9 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.7 possessions per game. Florida currently averages 79.9 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 78.5 possessions per game. Unlike UK , Florida has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by 1.4 per game while UK stands at -2.8 per game. To draw this important contrast more clearly, UK grabs an NCAA average 33.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Florida grabs an above average 37.2% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Florida limits its opponents to only 27.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and Florida averages one turnover for each 5.9 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while Florida forces one turnover for each 5.6 opponent possessions. Florida 's offensive efficiency has been an amazing 1.031 ppp and 82.3 points per game. Florida 's defensive efficiency has been 0.763 ppp while holding opponents to 59.9 ppg. Their NGE is 0.268 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a significantly lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.923 ppp while scoring about 73.7 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.786 ppp on about 65.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.137 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5436 for Florida and 0.6225 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Arkansas has been playing at about the same pace as UK , 80 to 81 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the 79 to 81 range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.137 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Florida tonight would clearly signal a strong Cat performance against the Gators, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will signal a poor overall performance against the Gators.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect Florida to win this battle again on Saturday afternoon, +2.

Based on this performance data for Arkansas and UK to date, which includes twenty three regular season games and nine SEC games for Kentucky and twenty-four regular season games and nine SEC games for Florida , Kentucky is a 1-point favorite, 71-70 in this game, based on the NGE Method. However, using the Pomeroy definition of possessions, the NGE model produces a predicted Florida win by 3 points, 72-69. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for Florida . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.886 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.864 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

After a one game demotion from the starting five for violating an unspecified “team rule”Tubby returned to his prior starting lineup tonight against the Gators. Jasper starts at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Florida and Kentucky come out swinging, and in the first segment, they each enjoyed 10 trips into offensive court, on a blistering early pace of about 90 possessions. At the under 16 TV timeout, the Gators held a 5 point lead, 14-9. Morris picked up his first foul in the first 2 minutes, and Obrzut had replaced him on the floor before the segment ended with the TV timeout on a foul.

In the second segment, the pace continues at about a 90 possession level, but Florida maintained its blistering scoring rate while the Cats slackened, with the Gators winning the segment 10-2 to expand their early lead to 13 points, 24-11. The Cats appear to be deer, caught in the headlights as that TV timeout arrived. The teams battled on even terms, 3-3, to maintain the Florida 13 point lead to the under 8 TV timeout, and the Gators leading 27-14. The pace slowed during the third segment to about 80 to 85 possession pace. In the next two minutes of play, the Cats outscore the Gators 5-4, cutting the 13 point lead to 12, and Billy Donovan called a timeout after Crawford scored on drives through traffic two straight trips. Out of the timeout, Kentucky increased its defensive pressure, and forced another Gator timeout when trapped on the sideline.

The Wildcat's renewed defensive intensity is responsible for a UK comeback, to down 8, 31-23 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams played out the half, win Florida limping to the locker room in foul trouble [Noah 2, Horford 2, and Werner 3]. However, Florida does maintain a 9 point lead at the half, 36-27.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 21-16 in total rebounds and 6-2 on the offensive boards for a +4 offensive rebounding margin. The Cats also have a 3-0 advantage in second chance points in the first half. The pace is about 80 possessions for UK and 72 possessions for Florida .

Florida turned in its usual, very efficient offensive performance, scoring its 36 points on 36 possessions. Florida had an offensive efficiency of 1.059 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 2 second chance possessions. UK had 0.706 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

Neither team shot free throws well during the first half, UK was 7 for 13 [53.8%] and Florida was 4-9 [44.4%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 10-28 overall [35.7%] and a pitiful 0-9 from long range [0.0%]. For Florida , their field goal shooting overall was 14-26 [53.8%] and a very strong 4-9 [44.4%] from long range. UK committed 6 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.7 possessions and Florida committed 7 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.1 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 68 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 41 points, while Florida needs 32 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 80 possessions for the game for UK and 72 possessions for Florida . Neither team reached 68 points in this game due to the reduced pace of the second half, and lower efficiencies in the second half as compared to the first.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins with Kentucky playing aggressive defense, similar to the level of effectiveness they applied late in the first half when they cut the 16 point lead to 4 points. UK outscored Florida 7-4 in the first 5 minutes leading to the under 16 TV timeout with the Gators hanging on to a 6 point lead, 40-34. In this opening segment of the second half, Horford and Noah both picked up their third fouls, and foul trouble continues to play an important role in this game.

In the second segment, Kentucky rides the offense of Morris and cuts the Florida lead to 3 points, 43-40 at the under 12 TV timeout. Morris got his 3 rd foul right before the TV timeout. Noah and Horford already have 3 fouls each. Morris sits down when play resumes. In the third segment, Florida turned back the Kentucky charge, at least temporarily, to extend their tenuous lead back to 6 points, 50-44. The pace has slowed in this second half into the 70's range for the game for both teams. The teams again played the ensuing segment on even terms, and Florida will take a 6 point lead, 54-48 into the last segment, the last 4 minutes of the game. Horford committed his 4 th foul leading into the timeout on a rebound attempt. Noah committed his 4 th foul with 2:27 to play, and the Gators up 8. Morris converts the two free throws to cut the lead to 6.

Down the stretch, UK made it an exciting finish, missing the three point attempt that could have tied the game and sent it into overtime. Florida wins 64-61.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 40-33. Kentucky also won the battle of the offensive boards today, 13-5, +8. Kentucky converted its 13 second chance opportunities into 3 second chance points and Florida used its 5 second chance opportunities to post 3 second chance points.

Florida had an offensive efficiency of 0.925 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.400 ppp for its 5 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.889 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.866 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.231 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.763 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a below average 31.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Florida was able to convert a weak 15.6 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK did not shoot very well down the stretch from the free throw line tonight, converting 5 of 8 in the final four minutes of the game, and 12-21 for the game [57.1%] Florida was more effective from the free throw line but still below their average, making 13-21 [61.9%]. UK's field goal shooting was below average, 38.3% [23-60] overall and a strong 3-22 [13.6%] from long range Florida's field goal shooting overall was also about average throughout the game, 23-59 [46.9%] and a weak 29.4% from long range, 5-17.

Kentucky committed 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.0 possessions. Florida committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Florida has been playing at about the same pace as UK , 80 to 81 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the 79 to 81 range. Tonight, UK had 80 possessions and Florida 72 possessions for the game.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.137 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Florida tonight would clearly signal a strong Cat performance against the Gators, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will signal a poor overall performance against the Gators. Tonight, the game NGE was -0.126 points per possession.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -3 through the first 19 games. I expect Florida to win this battle again on Saturday afternoon, +2. Tonight, UK clearly dominated Florida on the boards, and won the offensive rebounding battles 13-5, +8.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On February 13, 2007 , UK will play its twenty fifth regular season game and its eleventh SEC game of the season against Tennessee at Knoxville .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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