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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

30
Kentucky Travels To "Orange"ville For Tennessee Rematch:
This Time Lofton Will Play

Pre-Game Analysis:

“ Sweet Home Alabama ” put Lynrd Skynrd on the map many years ago, but tonight the Kentucky Wildcats will experience an ugly Orange version, “ Sweet Home Tennessee .” On Saturday, the Volunteers embarrassed a good Vanderbilt team, the same Vanderbilt team that had defeated the Vols in Nashville about a month ago, a 29 point turn around at “ Sweet Home Tennessee .”

Tonight, the Volunteers will roll out the “Orange Carpet,” in fact they are “Painting the Town Orange” in honor of the Wildcat appearance in Knoxville for Act II of “ Sweet Home Tennessee .” Will Orangeville provide enough sweetener to turn the score around by 20 or more points as it did with Vanderbilt? That is the question for this game, and based on the NGE analysis [see below], they probably will do just that.

When the Volunteers traveled to Lexington 3 weeks ago, they did so without their star player, the conferences leading scorer, and Maysville , Kentucky native Chris Lofton. When the Volunteers arrived in Lexington in that lame condition, they were in the middle of a six game stretch that required them to leave “ Sweet Home Tennessee ” for five of those games, losing all five. Their only win was at home by a measly 3 points over a pitiful South Carolina , in which Lofton sustained his injury.

However, the Volunteers now have Lofton back, perhaps not yet 100%, but based on the Vanderbilt performance, Lofton is probably 90+% at this point, and a 90+% Lofton will be sufficient for Tennessee to remain unbeaten at “Sweet Home Tennessee”

The SEC race in the East is heating up. Not for first or last, as Florida and South Carolina have laid claim to those bookends, but the fight for 2 through 5 is raging between Tennessee [Currently 5 th ], Georgia [Currently 4 th ], Vanderbilt [Currently 3 rd ], and Kentucky [Currently 2 nd ]. Let this round ball version of musical chairs begin tonight. Yes, this game is huge for both teams, because as the final order of finish will demonstrate, the stakes are high for all 4 teams.

• A first round bye in the SEC Tournament goes to the “winner”; and
• NCAA seedings, indeed, NCAA invitations hang in the balance.

It is not likely that the NCAA will include five SEC teams from the East, and it is questionable whether a 4 th place SEC East finish will be sufficient for anything other than the “opportunity” to play in the NIT.

The final 12 games for Kentucky are now six games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 3-3 after they lost to the almost certain SEC regular season champion Florida Gators. The last six games provide a treacherous road for the Cats with four of these final six on the road, and home games against Georgia and LSU. There are no more breathers left on the schedule.

Tennessee enters tonight's game with a 17-8 record, 5-5 in the SEC. Kentucky comes into this game with an 18-6 record, 7-3 in SEC play. I reviewed their common non-conference opponents prior to their first match up three weeks ago and do not repeat it here.

Through twenty-five games against D1 competition, Tennessee can claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.6100 and a RPI ranking of #14. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Tennessee as the #42 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #13 ranked team. Pomeroy projects an 1-point Kentucky win over Tennessee [77-76], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 54%.

Kentucky averages 79.9 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.4 possessions per game. Tennessee currently averages 89.4 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 87.9 possessions per game. Unlike UK , Tennessee has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by 1.5 per game while UK stands at -2.5 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Tennessee grabs an above average 34.7% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Tennessee allows its opponents to 34.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.5 possessions, and Tennessee averages one turnover for each 5.8 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while Tennessee forces one turnover for each 4.7 opponent possessions. Tennessee 's offensive efficiency has been 0.904 ppp and 80.8 points per game. Tennessee 's defensive efficiency has been 0.847 ppp while holding opponents to 74.4 ppg. Their NGE is 0.057 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.916 ppp while scoring about 73.2 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.789 ppp on about 65.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.127 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.6100 for Tennessee and 0.6294 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Tennessee has been playing at about the fastest pace in the SEC this season, 88 to 89 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.127 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK , but has been falling steadily since peaking after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Tennessee tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Vols, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Vols.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.5 through the first 24 games. I expect Tennessee to win this battle again tonight, +2.

Based on this performance data for Tennessee and UK to date, which includes twenty four regular season games and ten SEC games for Kentucky and twenty-five regular season games and ten SEC games for Tennessee, Tennessee is a 1-point favorite, 74-73 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 84 possessions for UK and 86 possessions for Tennessee . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.874 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.860 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stayed with his regular starting line up for this game. Jasper starts at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

Tennessee and Kentucky came out swinging for this match up, and at the end of the first game segment, they were knotted up at 7-7. Both teams committed 3 turnovers in this early going. In the second segment, the Cats eased out to a brief 3 point lead, 12-9, but the Vols scored the last 4 points of the segment to take a tenuous 1 point lead at the under 12 TV timeout, 13-12. The early pace of this game is 75 possessions for UK and about 90 possessions for UT. Tennessee holds the early offensive rebounding edge, 4-2, and both teams have committed 4 turnovers.

In the third mini-game, UK reasserted its earlier 3 point lead, 18-15, but Tennessee clawed their way back to a tie at the under 8 TV timeout, 19-19. Each team has won a mini-game, and they have one push mini-game. An noted prior to this game, it appears this one will be a barn burner, and will go to the wire. With 7:45 to play in the first half, UK is shooting 44 percent, 8-18, and 0-4 from three while Tennessee is only 40%, 8-20, and 1-6 from long range. Free throw shooting has been poor at both ends, UK 3-5, and UT 2-6.

After 12 minutes of stalemate, Tennessee breaks out from the tie in this fourth mini-game outscoring the Cats 14-7 during the fourth segment, for a 33-26 lead. This scoring outburst was led by the first real appearance of Chris Lofton as a scorer in this game. The scoring outburst forced a UK timeout at 3:54 to play in the half. Out of this unscheduled timeout, Kentucky missed a three, and UT responded with a three at the other end. The next trip down to offensive court for the Cats saw an Obrzut jump shot blocked out of bounds, leading to the under 4 TV timeout, at the 3:15 mark in the half, with the Vols leading by 10 points, 36-26. Each team scored 4 points in the final segment, leading to the half, and Tennessee takes a 10-point, 40-30 lead into the locker room.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 19-16 in total rebounds, but Tennessee controlled the offensive boards, by a slim margin of 2, 7-5. However, neither team converted a second chance possession during the entire first half. The pace is about 80 possessions for UK and 86 possessions for Tennessee .

Tennessee turned a very efficient offensive performance, scoring its 40 points on 43 possessions. Tennessee had an offensive efficiency of 1.111 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.857ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

Kentucky shot free throws well during the first half. UK was 7 for 9 [77.8%] and Tennessee was 4-8 [50.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 11-25 overall [44.0%] and a pitiful 1-7 from long range [14.3%]. For Tennessee , their field goal shooting overall was 15-34 [44.1%] and a very strong 6-15 [40.0%] from long range. UK committed 11 turnovers in the half, one for every 3.6 possessions and Tennessee committed 5 turnovers for the half, one for every 8.6 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 76 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 46 points, while Tennessee needs 36 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 80 possessions for the game for UK and 86 possessions for Tennessee . Tennessee scored its 76 th point on a Lofton three pointer shot with 4:50 to play in the game and Tennessee holding a 77-73 lead. The teams played out the final 4:50 minutes, and Tennessee secured this victory, handing the Cats their second loss in a row for the third time this season, and their 4 th loss in the last 7 games

Second Half Summary:

In the first two minutes of the second half, Tennessee outscored Kentucky 5-2, while Kentucky 's only points come from a pair of free throws, to add to a missed jumper and two turnovers. The second turnover, at 18:07 , prompted an early second half Kentucky timeout with Tennessee holding a 13-point lead, 45-32. Out of this time out, Ramel Bradley came alive, hitting back to back threes, but that resurgence was only sufficient to keep pace with the Vols, and at the under 16 TV timeout, Tennessee continues to hold a 13 point lead, 51-38, and Chris Lofton will be on the line for two free throws when play resumes.

Unlike Saturday night when the Cats used the first segment of the second half to close the Gator lead to 6 points, tonight, Tennessee used the first segment to expand their 10 point halftime lead to 13 points. Bradley remained a force in the second segment, and Crawford reappeared as a scorer in the segment as the Cats cut the one-time 16 point lead to 8, 59-51, but as the teams went to the under 12 TV timeout, Bradley picked up his 4 th personal foul on a charging call. In that segment, the Cats scored 13 points on just 6 possessions, and their only miscue was a turnover. Meanwhile, Tennessee scored 8 points on 8 possessions, continuing to score at a very high proficiency.

In the third segment of the game, with Bradley riding the bench, Kentucky continued its comeback, outscoring the Vols 14-11 in the segment, and cutting the lead to 70-65 with 7 minutes to play at the under 8 TV timeout. In the last 9 minutes, Kentucky has scored 27 points on just 16 possessions to climb back into this game. As noted before, photo-finish to come.

In the fourth segment of the second half, Kentucky continued its come back efforts, outscoring the Vols 10-7, cutting the lead to only 2 points, 77-75, and when play resumes from the under 4 TV timeout, Kentucky's Morris will have two free throw opportunities and a chance to tie the score with about 4 minutes to play in the game.

Kentucky tied the score at 77, and again at 79 before prolific scorer Loften became stellar passer and on back to back assists by Loften , Tennessee eased back out by 4 points, 83-79 with just under 2 minutes to play. The teams traded points from this point of the game, and Tennessee closes out the win, 89-85.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 39-27, and the battle of the offensive boards was a draw, 12-12. Kentucky converted its 12 second chance opportunities into 8 second chance points and Tennessee used its 12 second chance opportunities to post 6 second chance points.

Tennessee had an offensive efficiency of 1.122 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.035 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.085 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.024 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed an above average 44.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Tennessee was able to convert a weak 30.8 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK missed two of its four attempts from the free throw line in the last segment of the game, but for the game, UK shot 78.9% from the line, 15-19. Tennessee on the other hand did not shoot well from the line for this game, 14-22 [63.6%]. UK 's field goal shooting was well above average for the game, 31-55 [56.4%], including 66.7% in the second half on 20-30. The Cats also lit it up in the second half from long range, making 7-12 in the second half, and 8-19 for the game [42.1%]. Tennessee 's field goal shooting overall was also above average for the game, 33-67 [49.3%] and a good 37.5% from long range, 9-24.

Kentucky committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.4 possessions. Tennessee committed 8 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 10.8 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Tennessee has been playing at about the fastest pace in the SEC this season, 88 to 89 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the mid 80s range. The pace in this game was 82 possessions for UK and 84 possessions for Tennessee .

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.127 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK , but has been falling steadily since peaking after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Tennessee tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Vols, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Vols. The game NGE tonight was -0.023 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.5 through the first 24 games. I expect Tennessee to win this battle again tonight, +2. The offensive rebounds were even, 12-12 for the game.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On February 17, 2007 , UK will play its twenty sixth regular season game and its 12 th SEC game of the season against Alabama at Tuscaloosa .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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