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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
31
Kentucky Travels Alabama To Complete Two Game SEC Road Swing
Pre-Game Analysis:
Prior to the Tennessee game, I described why Knoxville was “ Sweet Home Tennessee ” but today the Cats travel to the real sweet home of music history, Alabama . The Crimson Tide's season began with the highest expectations, but as this team hit the road, primarily during SEC play, they learned that leaving their “ Sweet Home Alabama ” was generally hazardous. However, when at home, Alabama has taken the victory 12 times out of 13 tries this season. On the road, the Crimson Tide are merely 2-4, and they are a perfect 4-0 at neutral courts.
This morning, Ramel Bradley challenged all competitors in this game to put their individual bumps and bruises aside for this game today and simply accept the challenge of the moment. For Alabama, the challenge is to defend their home court, pull themselves back even in the SEC with 4 games to play, still in a position to still win the SEC West, or at least earn a first round SEC Tournament bye. A loss for Alabama today, at home, will deal a serious blow to these lingering hopes of a SEC Division Title this year.
For the Cats, the stakes are just as high, if not higher than ‘Bama's. The Cats cruised through the middle portion of their schedule, posting an 11 game winning streak, and elevating expectations for the finishing run on the 2007 schedule. However, Kentucky has now lost 4 of their last 7 games, and two in a row. With five games remaining, the Cats run a real risk of finishing with a losing record over the last 12 games, not the type of resume filler a team needs when Selection Sunday comes around in four weeks. Add to Kentucky 's landscape of recent losses the fact that Tubby is now calling out specific players for causing the losing of late, and has indicated a new starting lineup for this game. Finally, there are signs that some players may be taking public shots at team mates for lack of effort in these losses.
With this as the backdrop, the curtain will rise on another Kentucky Alabama game at 3 pm today. The last two Kentucky Alabama games ended with the visiting team on top. Two years ago, Patrick Sparks played and shot the lights out, handing the Cats an important road win late in that season. Last year, the Tide rolled into Lexington at the tail end of the Cats' first three game losing streak of the year. Alabama not only closed the deal at Rupp for three in a row, but it was two in a row at Rupp, and the first time in my memory that UK had ever lost the first two SEC games of the year at home.
Over the last 2 seasons plus, the Cats have only won 9 of 21 games against SEC East teams. Kentucky has done better than that against the SEC West contingent, and this year stands 4-0 against the West, with today's game against ‘Bama and Tuesday nights game at Rupp with LSU remaining.
The SEC race in the East is heating up. Not for first or last, as Florida and South Carolina have laid claim to those bookends, but the fight for 2 through 5 is raging between Tennessee [Currently Tied for 4 th ], Georgia [Currently Tied for 4 th ], Vanderbilt [Currently Tied for 2 nd ], and Kentucky [Currently Tied for 2 nd ] and all teams separated by only one loss, 4 and 5 respectively. I suspect when play ends today, these four teams will share identical SEC records with four game apiece remaining.
The final 12 games for Kentucky are now seven games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 3-4 after they lost back to back games to the almost certain SEC regular season champion Florida Gators and Tennessee. The last five games provide a treacherous road for the Cats with three of these final five on the road, and home games against Georgia and LSU. There are no more breathers left on the schedule.
Alabama enters tonight's game with a 18-7 record, 5-6 in the SEC. Kentucky comes into this game with an 18-7 record, 7-4 in SEC play. Alabama and Kentucky have not played any common non-conference opponents this season.
Through twenty-five games against D1 competition, Alabama can claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5634 and a RPI ranking of #31. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Alabama as the #57 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #13 ranked team. Pomeroy projects an 4-point Kentucky win over Alabama [74-70], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 62%.
Kentucky averages 80.1 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.5 possessions per game. Alabama currently averages 81.2 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 80.9 possessions per game. Unlike UK , Alabama has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by 0.3 per game while UK stands at -2.4 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Alabama grabs an above average 38.9% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Alabama allows its opponents to 34.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and Alabama averages one turnover for each 6.1 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Alabama forces one turnover for each 6.8 opponent possessions. Alabama 's offensive efficiency has been 0.919 ppp and 74.6 points per game. Alabama 's defensive efficiency has been 0.836 ppp while holding opponents to 67.6 ppg. Their NGE is 0.083 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.920 ppp while scoring about 73.7 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.799 ppp on about 65.9 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.121 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5634 for Alabama and 0.6296 for UK .
I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.
• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Alabama has been playing at about the fastest pace in the SEC this season, 88 to 89 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.121 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK , but has been falling steadily since peaking after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.150 ppp against Alabama tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Vols, while a game NGE of less than -0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Vols.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.5 through the first 24 games. I expect Alabama to win this battle again tonight, +1.
Based on this performance data for Alabama and UK to date, which includes twenty five regular season games and eleven SEC games for Kentucky and twenty-five regular season games and ten SEC games for Alabama , Kentucky is a 3-point favorite, 72-69 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for Alabama . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.894 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.842 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.
The NGE analysis based on Pomeroy's definition of a possession reduces this margin to UK by 1 point, 71-70. However, recent trends coupled with the Alabama venue and the significance of this game to the Tide, my DD prediction for this game is 72-71, Bama.
First Half Summary:
Tubby decided to change his starting line up for this game, sitting Bob Perry and starting Sherray Thomas at the power forward position. Thomas joints Jasper at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.
Both teams opened rather tentative, and the game remained scoreless for over the first 2 minutes, when Alabama broke the ice. The Tide then sprinted out to a 9-2 lead at the end of the first mini-game with just under 15 minutes to play. In that first segment, both teams grabbed one offensive rebound, and ‘Bama used theirs for 2 points, while the Cats fired a blank on the second chance possession. Both teams committed 2 turnovers in the early going. In the second segment, neither team put it in the basket with great proficiency with ‘Bama outscoring the Cats 3-0 to stretch their early lead to 10 points, 12-2 at the under 12 TV timeout. Thus far, Alabama is controlling the boards, with a 4-1 edge in offensive rebounds, and 5-0 on second chance points. In addition, ‘Bama has the advantage on turnovers, 3-4.
After a slow scoring start, both teams picked up the scoring pace in the third segment, but Alabama again won the mini-game, 8-6 for their third straight time, and extending their lead to 12 points, 20-12 with 7 ½ to play in the half. Through the first 12+ minutes, this game is being played at at 70 possession pace.
In the fourth segment, it appeared for a brief time that UK might assert itself, and begin to narrow the gap, but Alabama scored the last 7 points of the segment in a flurry, and again won the mini-game, 9-7 to expand their first half lead to 14 points, 29-15.
The Cats closed the half with a 7-1 run, the first mini-game of the half in which the Cats outscored the Tide. However, this run cut the ‘Bama 14 point lead to 8 points at the half
Alabama has controlled the boards in this half, 18-13 in total rebounds, and Alabama controlled the offensive boards, by a huge margin of 7, 9-52 Kentucky did not score a single second chance point, and Alabama converted its 9 opportunities into 5 second chance points. The pace is about 62 possessions for UK and 76 possessions for Alabama .
Neither team turned a very efficient offensive performance. Alabama scored its 30 points on 38 possessions, and Kentucky scored its 22 points on 31 possessions Alabama had an offensive efficiency of 0.862 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 0.556 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 0.759 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions.
Kentucky shot free throws well during the first half, 2-2 [100.0%], but they only had one opportunity, in the last 2 minutes of the half. Alabama only made 1-4 Free Throws [25.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 9-21 overall [42.9%] and a pitiful 2-8 from long range [25.0%]. For Alabama , their field goal shooting overall was 12-30 [40.0%] and a very strong 5-10 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 9 turnovers in the half, one for every 3.4 possessions and Alabama committed 6 turnovers for the half, one for every 6.3 possessions.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 56 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 34 points, while Alabama needs 26 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 62 possessions for the game for UK and 76 possessions for Alabama . Alabama scored its 56 th point on a Hendrix basket in close with 5:00 to play in the game and Alabama holding a 57-46 lead. The teams played out the final 5:00 minutes, and Alabama secured this victory, handing the Cats their third loss in a row for, and their 5 th loss in the last 8 games
Second Half Summary:
The teams resumed play with a heightened intensity, and Kentucky cut the 8 point halftime lead to 6 points twice before Alabama's offense sprinted back out on the strength of Kentucky turnovers, forcing Tubby Smith to call an unscheduled timeout with 15:58 to play, and the Cats trailing by 13 points, 39-26.
In the second segment of the second half, Kentucky won a segment, and cut the 13 point lead to 11 points at the under 12 TV timeout, 43-32. In terms of the race to 56 points, Alabama needs another 13 points before Kentucky can score another 24 points in these last 12 minutes of the game. The game pace continues to be about 70 possessions for both teams at present, a very slow pace. Prior to the game, Tubby said in an interview he wanted to run and play up tempo today.
Out of the timeout, Kentucky increased defensive pressure forcing 3 ‘Bama turnovers, and cutting the lead to 5 points, 45-40, forcing a Bama timeout at 9:39 . However, the ‘Bama timeout did not stem the Blue Tide, and Kentucky cut the one time 14 point lead to 2 points, and cut it to 3 points at the under 8 TV timeout, 48-45, with Meeks scheduled for a free throw when play resumes. Meeks converted the free throw, cutting the lead to 2 points for a second time, 48-46, but Alabama then scored 5 consecutive points, stretching the lead back to 7 points, 53-46, forcing a Kentucky timeout at 6:15 to play.
After the Kentucky 30 second timeout, Alabama continued to apply pressure on the Cats, and extended their new found lead to 11 points, 60-49, at the under 4 TV timeout. Alabama played out the final 3 mintues, converting free throws, and securing the win, 72-61.
Alabama won the rebounding battles during the game, 3231, but Kentucky won the offensive rebounding battle of the offensive boards by 1, 12-11. Kentucky converted its 12 second chance opportunities into 12 second chance points and Alabama used its 11 second chance opportunities to post 9 second chance points.
Alabama had an offensive efficiency of 0.984 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.818 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.960 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.731 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.772 ppp for the game..
UK grabbed an above average 36.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Alabama was able to convert 36.7 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot 66.7% from the line, 14-21. Alabama shoot well from the line for this game, 20-28 [71.4%]. UK 's field goal shooting was well below average for the game, 21-52 [40.4%], but only 22.7% from long range [5-22]. Alabama 's field goal shooting overall was also about average for the game, 22-49 [44.9%] and a very strong 47.1% from long range, 8-17.
Kentucky committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.6 possessions. Alabama committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.2 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.
• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 79 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 83 possessions per game. Alabama has been playing at about the fastest pace in the SEC this season, 88 to 89 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range. Today, UK had 78 possessions and Alabama had 75 possessions.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.121 ppp, which is above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK , but has been falling steadily since peaking after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.150 ppp against Alabama tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Vols, while a game NGE of less than -0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Vols. The game NGE was -0.178 ppp today.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.5 through the first 24 games. I expect Alabama to win this battle again tonight, +1. Kentucky won the offensive rebounding battle today, +1.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:
Next Game On Schedule:
On February 20, 2007 , UK will play its twenty seventh regular season game and its 13 th SEC game of the season against LSU at Rupp.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2007
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved