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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

32
Kentucky Returns to Rupp to Take On LSU and
End Three Game Losing Streak.

By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

After the first 18 basketball games of the 2006-07 season, these Kentucky Wildcats stood at 15-3, riding the wave of an eleven game winning streak off an admittedly shaky start at 4-3. However, the Wildcat Faithful remained hopeful even after that start because the three losses were at the hands of UCLA and Memphis in Maui and at North Carolina . Each of these opponents were highly ranked at the time they defeated the Cats, and remain highly ranked to this day.

During the eleven game winning streak, the level of opposition was generally ranked in the lower half of the top 100, and in some cases outside the top 100. Nonetheless, after the game at South Carolina , when the Cats absolutely embarrassed a weak group of Gamecocks, the record stood at the aforementioned 15-3, and some fans began to talk of SEC and national championships.

However, throughout that 18 game start, any astute Cat fan realized that the scheduling gods had played a silly trick on this year's Cats by rear end loading the last 12 games with all of the top SEC teams. Warnings emanated from many that the final 12 games of this season would write the story of the 2006-07 Kentucky Wildcats. And so it seems to be. Eight games into this final 12-game string, the Cats are only 3-5, having lost their last three outings. There are four games remaining, LSU and Georgia at Rupp, and Vandy and Florida on the road.

The Cats now stand at 7-5 in SEC play, in a tie for third place with Georgia . Georgia defeated the Cats last month in Athens , and their rematch at Rupp in about a week could determine which team finishes third and fourth in the SEC East. With Vanderbilt's win this weekend over top ranked, and SEC leader Florida , Vandy is in the driver's seat with respect to the 2 nd place finish in the East, and the first round SEC Tournament Bye that goes with that finish.

So, LSU comes to town Tuesday night, and the Cats desperately need to get the W to stop the bleeding. Signs of dissension are beginning to appear on this team, particularly following the Tennessee and Alabama road defeats, and it appears to many observers that Tubby Smith no longer has control over his team. So, this game will have huge ramifications, win or lose for the Cats. LSU is limping into Rupp as they wind down on a very disappointing season. Last year, LSU won the regular season SEC title, and reached the Final Four. Expectations for this season were very high, and their on-the-court performance this year has significantly fallen short of them.

The final 12 games for Kentucky are now eight games deep, and Tubby Smith's team is 3-5 after they lost three straight games. The last four games provide a treacherous road for these wounded Cats with two of these final four on the road, and home games against Georgia and LSU. There are no more breathers left on the schedule.

LSU enters tonight's game with a 14-12 record, 3-9 in the SEC. Kentucky comes into this game with an 18-8 record, 7-5 in SEC play. LSU and Kentucky have played one common non-conference opponents this season, Mississippi Valley State . LSU defeated MVS by 34 in Baton Rouge while the Cats beat MVS by 23 points at Rupp..

Through twenty-six games against D1 competition, LSU can claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5679 and a RPI ranking of #100. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Alabama as the #47 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #18 ranked team. Pomeroy projects an 8-point Kentucky win over LSU [68-60], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 80%.

Kentucky averages 80.1 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.2 possessions per game. LSU currently averages 78.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 76.9 possessions per game. Unlike UK , LSU has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by 1.6 per game while UK stands at -2.1 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU grabs an above average 36.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while LSU allows its opponents only 30.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and LSU averages one turnover for each 5.6 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Alabama forces one turnover for each 6.0 opponent possessions. LSU 's offensive efficiency has been 0.874 ppp and 68.6 points per game. LSU 's defensive efficiency has been 0.802 ppp while holding opponents to 61.6 ppg. Their NGE is 0.072 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a significantly higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.914 ppp while scoring about 73.2 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.805 ppp on about 66.2 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.110 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5681 for LSU and 0.6312 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. LSU has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low upper 70s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.110 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 8 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against LSU tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Tigers, while a game NGE of less than 0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Tigers.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect the offensive rebounding will be even for this game.

Based on this performance data for LSU and UK to date, which includes twenty six regular season games and twelve SEC games for Kentucky and LSU, Kentucky is a 13-point favorite, 74-61 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 79 possessions for LSU . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.943 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.772 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 69 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stayed with his usual starting lineup tonight against the Tigers. Jasper starts at the point along with Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

LSU and Kentucky both come out of the gates for this one very slow and lethargic. At the end of the first mini-game, LSU eased out to a 3-2 lead on the strength of 1 out of 2 free throws, and each team had one basket on 7 possessions each. When play resumed, Bradley gave the Cats their first lead with two free throws, 4-3, but LSU's offense came to life, and the Tigers ran off 10 straight points, a streak that the Cats ended on a put back basket by Morris just prior to the under 12 TV timeout, with LSU holding a 13-6 lead.

LSU used the third mini-game to expand its early lead, first to 14 points, 21-7, and then to 13 points, 24-11, after the Cats had cut the lead to 10 points. This is the fourth game in a row in which the Cats have started shooting poorly and offering essentially no defense. The fourth game in a row in which the Cats fell behind by 10 to 20 points in the first half.

In the fourth segment of this game, LSU extended its lead to 16 points, 28-12 before the Cats scored the last 7 points of the segment to cut that lead to 9 points at the under 4 TV timeout, 28-19. In the final segment, the Cats continued their streak to close the half on a 18-3 run, to close to 1 point, 31-30.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 20-18 in total rebounds and the teams were even on the offensive boards, 5-5. LSU has a 6-2 advantage in second chance points in the first half. The pace is about 78 possessions for UK and 76 possessions for LSU

LSU scored its 31 points on 37 possessions. LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.781 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 5 second chance possessions. UK had 0.823 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

UK was 11 for 16 [68.8%] and LSU was 6-10 [60.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a 9-27 overall [33.3%] and a poor 0-3 from long range [33.3%]. For LSU, their field goal shooting overall was 11-27 [40.7%] and a poor 3-9 [33.3%] from long range. UK committed 4 turnovers in the half, one for every 9.8 possessions and LSU committed 5 turnovers for the half, one for every 7.4 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 62 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while LSU needs 31 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 78 possessions for the game for UK and 76 possessions for LSU. Kentucky scored its 62 nd point on a free throw by Morris with 3:09 remaining and the score 62-58. Kentucky then played our the last 3 minutes to secure the win 70-63.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats resume play in the second half with the same intensity as they ended the first half, hitting a three pointer to take their first lead since 4-3 in the early moments of the game. At the under 16 TV timeout, UK held a 1 point lead, 41-40. Two free throws out of the time out extended the lead to 3, their largest of the game. The teams traded mini-runs for the remainder of the second segment of the second half, and at the under 12 TV timeout, the Cats are holding to a 3 point lead, 50-47.

In the third segment of the second half, Kentucky stretched the lead to 5 [their biggest had been 6 at 46-40], but LSU cut that lead back to 1 point, 55-54 at the under 8 TV timeout.

Crunch time is drawing near for this game. The race to 62 points has Kentucky leading by a nose, needing 7 to LSU's 8 points.

The teams' intensity both seemed to move up a notch or two during the fourth segment, and the Cats eased that 1 point lead to 2 points, 60-58 with 3:21 to play at the under 4 TV timeout.

Kentucky has possession, and only 2 points shy of the magic number, 62 points, while LSU needs 4 more points.

Out of the time out, the Cats scored their 62 nd point on a pair of Morris free throws, and two defensive stops produced two baskets for Crawford, his first scores of the night, to lift their lead to 8 points, 66-58 with 1:21 to play, forcing a LSU timeout. The final score was 70-63.

Kentucky won the rebounding battles during the game, 35-33. LSU won the battle of the offensive boards today, 13-6, +7. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and LSU used its 13 second chance opportunities to post 10 second chance points.

LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.828 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.769 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.818 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.964 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.972 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a below low 23.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to convert a weak 31.0 % of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK did shoot very well down the stretch from the free throw line tonight, converting 5 of 5 in the final few minutes of the game, and 22-27 for the game [81.5%] LSU was less effective from the free throw line and below their average, making 7-11 [63.6%]. UK's field goal shooting was about average, 45.8% [22-48] overall and a fair 4-11 [36.4%] from long range LSU's field goal shooting overall was below average for the game, 25-63 [39.7%] and a weak 33.3% from long range, 6-18.

Kentucky committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.5 possessions. LSU committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.6 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. LSU has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low upper 70s range. Kentucky had 72 total possessions and LSU had 77 total possessions for the game.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.110 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 8 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against LSU tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Tigers, while a game NGE of less than 0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Tigers. The game NGE is 0.154 points per possession.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect the offensive rebounding will be even for this game. LSU won the battle of the offensive boards tonight, +7.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On February 25, 2007 , UK will play its 28 th regular season game and its 14 th SEC game of the season against Vanderbilt in Nashville .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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