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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

33
Kentucky Must Make A Final Stand For Tubby Today In Nashville
But, Turnovers and Poor Offensive Rebounding Seal Cuts Fate
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

The teams have played all but three of their regular season games, and they stand tied in the SEC East, each with 8-5 records. However, that is where the similarities end for Vanderbilt and Kentucky as the 2007 season winds down to what will probably be a climatic ending for Kentucky if not Vanderbilt. Last month, Vanderbilt left Rupp Arena with its second victory in that hallowed hall, or should I say “hollowed hull” because it appears the SS Tubbitanic is sinking and sinking fast. Rats have begun to flee, and many of them are appearing daily at the internet message board called Dynasty Defenders to find out their likely fate.

Many believe that Tubby Smith's fate has already been determined. Others believe he can still survive this debacle, but to do so he must finish these last three games with at least two victories, including today. A loss today virtually assures that Kentucky will not finish in the top two spots of the SEC East for only the second time since divisional play began, and for the second year in a row.

Therefore, these Cats must make their final stand for their coach today in Nashville against a Vanderbilt team that now owns three victories in a row against these Cats. A daunting task to say the least, but not an impossible one if the Cats are truly prepared to go to war and leave it all on the floor for this coach.

After the first 18 basketball games of the 2006-07 season, these Kentucky Wildcats stood at 15-3, riding the wave of an eleven game winning streak off an admittedly shaky start at 4-3. However, the Wildcat Faithful remained hopeful even after that start because the three losses were at the hands of UCLA and Memphis in Maui and at North Carolina . Each of these opponents were highly ranked at the time they defeated the Cats, and remain highly ranked to this day.

Even at the height of UK's 2007 season, in the midst of its highly touted 11-game winning streak, realists pointed to the final 12 games as determinative of how this Wildcat team will be recorded in the history books.

The Cats now stand at 8-5 in SEC play, in a tie for second place with the same Vandy team it plays today. This 8-5 record translates into a 4-5 record over the last 9 games, e.g. the first 9 games of the final 12 games. Yes, the Cats did stop the hemorrhaging of their recent three game losing streak by overcoming another double digit first half deficit in turning back a weakened LSU team at Rupp on Tuesday night. However, Kentucky must get another W today to remain in the hunt for that precious first round SEC Bye that attaches to a second place finish in the SEC East.

When we examine the four wins that the Cats have claimed during these last 9 games, they beat a Tennessee team at Rupp that was playing its second game without SEC leading scorer, and spark plug Lofton. It beat Arkansas on the road when Arkansas was playing without one of its key front line starters, Thomas. Kentucky beat a faltering LSU team without its marquee player Davis at Rupp. Oh yes, Kentucky did beat cellar dweller USC by 6 points at Rupp.

Today, Vanderbilt will not only be playing on their home court, at full strength, and for all the marbles that are still available this season, Vanderbilt will also be playing with the confidence that comes with the knowledge that they have owned Tubby's Cats for the last three meetings. Kentucky on the other hand enters this game in another must win situation, its sixth such pressure cooker in its last 7 games, and only twice in 7 such pressure laden events have the Cats managed to get that “must” win.

In other words, all signs point to another Kentucky loss today.

Vandy enters tonight's game with a 17-9 record, 8-5 in the SEC. Kentucky comes into this game with an 19-8 record, 8-5 in SEC play. I reviewed their common out of conference opponents prior to the first meeting of the season, and do not repeat that here.

Through twenty-six games against D1 competition, Vandy can claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5798 and a RPI ranking of #37. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Vanderbilt as the #47 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #15 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 1-point Kentucky win over Vandy [72-71], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 53%.

Kentucky averages 79.8 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.0 possessions per game. Vandy currently averages 80.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 83.2 possessions per game. Just like UK , Vandy has been losing the offensive rebounding battles by -2.7 per game while UK stands at -2.2 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Vandy grabs a below average 28.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Vandy allows its opponents 33.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and Vandy averages one turnover for each 6.3 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.4 opponent possessions while Vandy forces one turnover for each 5.3 opponent possessions. Vandy 's offensive efficiency has been 0.953 ppp and 76.7 points per game. Vandy 's defensive efficiency has been 0.843 ppp while holding opponents to 70.1 ppg. Their NGE is 0.109 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a significantly lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.916 ppp while scoring about 73.1 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.805 ppp on about 66.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.111 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5798 for Vandy and 0.6270 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. LSU has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low upper 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.111 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 9 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Vandy tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Commodores, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Commodores.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect Kentucky to win the offensive board battle against the Commodores today, +1.

Based on this performance data for Vandy and UK to date, which includes twenty seven regular season games and thirteen SEC games for Kentucky and twenty-six regular season games and thirteen SEC games for Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt is a 2-point favorite, 73-71 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for Vandy . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.871 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.889 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby replaced Joe Crawford with Jody Meeks in the starting lineup for this game due to academic issues with Crawford, e.g. some say he has stopped attending class.  Meeks joins fellow freshman Jasper starts at the point along with Bradley, Perry, and Morris for a three-guard configuration. This lineup consists of one senior, two juniors, and two freshmen.

Kentucky and Vanderbilt opened play with very strong shooting. However, Vanderbilt is winning the turnover battle in the first 10 minutes 7-3, and Kentucky has used this advantage to build an early 9 point lead, 20-11 at the under 12 TV timeout, with 10:38 to play in the first half. In the first quarter of the game, Kentucky has shoot 64% from the floor to Vandy's 57%, but Vandy has only gotten 7 shots to Kentucky 's 14 shots.

In the abbreviated third mini-game, Vandy began to climb back into the game, ourscoring the Cats 7-2 in the 3 minute segment, to cut the score to 22-18 with about 7 ½ minutes to play in the half. Vanderbilt committed no turnovers in that segment, while Kentucky turned it over for their fourth of the game. The game is on a pace of about 70 possessions for the game. Just as the segment ended, Cage drew his third foul of the game.

Both teams scored 4 points on 8 possessions in the fourth segment of the game, and Kentucky continues to hold its 4 point lead at the under 4 TV timeout, 26-22. Kentucky outscored Vandy 6-1 over the last 3 minutes to take a 9 point, 32-23 lead to the locker room.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 16-15 in total rebounds, but Vandy controlled the offensive boards 7-3. Despite the offensive rebounding disadvantage, UK has scored 7 second chance points to Vandy's 4 second chance points. The pace is about 68 possessions for UK and 74 possessions for Vandy

Vandy scored its 23 points on 37 possessions. LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.633 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 0.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.807 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 2.333 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions.

UK was 5 for 6 [83.3%] and Vandy was 1-3 [33%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 13-23 overall [56.5%] and a poor 1-6 from long range [16.7%]. For Vandy, their field goal shooting overall was 9-27 [33.3%] and a poor 4-15 [26.7%] from long range. UK committed 8 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.2 possessions and Vandy committed 9 turnovers for the half, one for every 4.1 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 60 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 28 points, while Vandy needs 37 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 68 possessions for the game for UK and 74 possessions for Vandy. Kentucky scored its 60 th point on three pointer by Bradley on which he was also fouled. Following the completion of this rare 4 point play, Kentucky led 63-59 with 3:30 to play in the game. Kentucky was not able to win even though it reached the Magic Number first. This is the first time this season that the team that wins the race to the Magic Number could not close the deal, as turnovers down the stretch were too much to overcome. Vanderbilt wins 67-65.

Second Half Summary:

Both teams started the second half hotter than a Georgia fire cracker, and Vandy outdueled the Cats 13-11 in the opening segment of the second half, with Kentucky continuing to hold the lead, at 7 with about 15 minutes to play. Out of the under 16 timeout, Vandy scored 6 quick points, cutting the lead back to 4 points, 46-42 with about 12 ½ minutes to play, prompting an unscheduled Kentucky timeout.

Vandy made at least two approaches toward eliminating the UK lead, but each time, the Cats turned the Commodores back as the lead fluccuated between 2 and 10 points for the first 10 minutes of the half. However, Vandy finally caught up at 54-54 on a pair of Foster free throws. At the under 8 TV timeout, UK was still clinging to a 2 point lead, 56-54, with one free throw due out of the timeout.

Leading 59-54, Vanderbilt went to war on the offensive boards and their fourth wide open three on a single trip down the road was good to cut the lead back to 2 points, 59-57. After Vandy tied the Cats for the second time, on a put back basket, Ramel Bradley drained a long three as he was fouled, giving UK a three point lead, 62-59 at the under 4 TV timeout, with 3:30 to play in the game.

Out of the timeout, Bradley completed the 4 point play, but four straight Vanderbilt free throws sandwiched around another Kentucky turnover allowed Vanderbilt to climb back into the third tie of the game at 63 with 2 ½ to play. Kentucky edged back to the lead on a Perry put back basket, and at the other end, a Kentucky foul sent Byars to the line for two shots. He make the first, missed the second, got his own rebound and made the put back basket to give Vanderbilt its first lead of the game, 66-65 with 25 seconds to play.

Kentucky called a timeout after the basket to plan its strategy for this game determining final possession. Another Kentucky turnover with under 10 seconds to play as Kentucky fouled Foster on the turnover. However, Foster missed the first of two, and could only extend this tenuous lead to 2 points, 67-65 with 9.7 seconds to play in the game.

Bradley took the ball the length of the court but missed his shot from inside the lane, and Vandy grabbed the last rebound to secure the win.

Kentucky and Vanderbilt tied on the boards, 28 apiece, but Vanderbilt controlled the offensive boards, 16-8, +8. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 13 second chance points and Vandy used its 16 second chance opportunities to post 13 second chance points.

Vandy had an offensive efficiency of 0.885 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 0.812 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.870 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.839 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.625 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.929 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a strong 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Vandy was able to convert an even stronger 44.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit a strong 9-11 for the game [81.8%] from the free throw line today while Vandy was less effective from the free throw line and below their average, making 9-13 [69.2%]. UK's field goal shooting was well above average, 58.1% [25-43] overall and a strong 6-15 [40;0%] from long range Vandy's field goal shooting overall was below average for the game, 24-58 [41.4%] and a weak 30.3% from long range, 10-33.

Kentucky committed 22 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.2 possessions. Vandy committed 8 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.9 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. LSU has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low upper 80s range. For the game, UK had 70 possessions and Vandy had 77 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.111 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 9 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.100 ppp against Vandy tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Commodores, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Commodores. The game NGE was 0.083 in favor of the Cats in a losing effort due to the -8 offensive rebounding margin.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect Kentucky to win the offensive board battle against the Commodores today, +1. Vanderbilt went to war in the second half on the offensive boards, and ended the game, +8 on the offensive boards.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “B-” respectively as shown below:

Next Game On Schedule:

On February 28, 2007 , UK will play its 29 th regular season game and its 15 th SEC game of the season against Georgia on Senior Night at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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