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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

34
Kentucky "Celebrates" Senior Night for 2007
May Be Tubby's Last Stand at Rupp
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

How many senior nights have we all experienced during our years of being UK fans. These nights hold special meaning and will again in the future. Tonight is senior night, 2007. However, at least for me there is a cloud lingering over Rupp Arena and the entire Kentucky program that will diminish the significance that a final farewell to a group of seniors usually carries.

Tubby Smith has anointed this group of seniors as one of the winningest groups in the storied history of the UK Basketball program. However, that attempt to lavish praise upon this group is a inconsistent with the facts as is Mitch Barnhart's attempt to prop up an embattled Tubby Smith last summer by declaring Tubby the CEO of Kentucky basketball.

The Cats enter this final home game of the 2007 season having lost 4 of their last 5 games, and 6 of their last 10 games. In reality, this will probably be Tubby Smith's farewell to the Rupp crowd as UK's head coach as well as the ground swell of pressure to end his tenure is rapidly taking on earthquake proportions.

These two teams met earlier in Athens , and the Cats allowed a 16 point lead to slip through their fingers, losing to Georgia in overtime. That loss was the first loss in this season ending slide. Tonight, the stakes are significant for both teams with respect to the SEC East final standings. They enter this game tied for 4 th [and 5 th ] place with 8-6 records and two games remaining. Georgia finishes at home against 3 rd place Tennessee and Kentucky will finish on the road in Gainesville , Florida against the 1 st place Florida Gators.

If Georgia wins tonight, Kentucky will certainly finish in 5 th place in the SEC East. The only way that Kentucky can manage to finish in 4 th place in their division is to beat Georgia and Florida , coupled with Georgia also losing to Tennessee on their senior day.

It is a sad commentary on Kentucky basketball that in the final week of a season, the Cats are jockeying for position in bottom division of the East Division of the SEC, rather than jockeying for position for one of the coveted top NCAA seeds.

After the first 18 basketball games of the 2006-07 season, these Kentucky Wildcats stood at 15-3, riding the wave of an eleven game winning streak off an admittedly shaky start at 4-3. However, the Wildcat Faithful remained hopeful even after that start because the three losses were at the hands of UCLA and Memphis in Maui and at North Carolina . Each of these opponents were highly ranked at the time they defeated the Cats, and remain highly ranked to this day.

Even at the height of UK's 2007 season, in the midst of its highly touted 11-game winning streak, realists pointed to the final 12 games as determinative of how this Wildcat team will be recorded in the history books.

The Cats now stand at 8-6 in SEC play, in a tie for fourth place with the same Georgia team it plays tonight. This 8-6 record translates into a 4-6 record over the last 10 games, e.g. the first 10 games of the final 12 games. Theese final two games figure to leave the Cats weakened to a 9-7 record [if the beat Georgia tonight] or 8-8 because most observers concede that Kentucky 's trip to Florida will be an almost certain defeat.

When we examine the four wins that the Cats have claimed during these last 9 games, they beat a Tennessee team at Rupp that was playing its second game without SEC leading scorer, and spark plug Lofton. It beat Arkansas on the road when Arkansas was playing without one of its key front line starters, Thomas. Kentucky beat a faltering LSU team without its marquee player Davis at Rupp. Oh yes, Kentucky did beat cellar dweller USC by 6 points at Rupp.

Georgia enters tonight's game with a 16-10 record, 8-6 in the SEC. Kentucky comes into this game with an 19-9 record, 8-6 in SEC play. I reviewed their common out of conference opponents prior to the first meeting of the season, and do not repeat that here.

Through twenty-six games against D1 competition, Georgia can claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5772 and a RPI ranking of #53. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Georgia as the #41 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #18 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 7-point Kentucky win over Georgia [73-66], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 76%.

Kentucky averages 79.4 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.9 possessions per game. Georgia currently averages 85.1 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 81.7 possessions per game. Georgia has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by +3.4 per game while UK stands at -2.5 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Georgia grabs a well above average 40.4% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Georgia allows its opponents only 31.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Georgia averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Georgia forces one turnover for each 5.1 opponent possessions. Georgia 's offensive efficiency has been 0.899 ppp and 76.5 points per game. Georgia 's defensive efficiency has been 0.828 ppp while holding opponents to 67.6 ppg. Their NGE is 0.071 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.916 ppp while scoring about 72.8 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.807 ppp on about 66.1 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.109 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5772 for Georgia and 0.6262 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. LSU has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low to mid 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.109 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 9 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against Georgia tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Bulldogs, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Bulldogs.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect Georgia to win the offensive board battle against the Cats tonight, +2.

Based on this performance data for Georgia and UK to date, which includes twenty eight regular season games and fourteen SEC games for Kentucky and twenty-six regular season games and fourteen SEC games for Georgia , Kentucky is a 13-point favorite, 77-64 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for Georgia . Due to the large disparity in offensive rebounding differentials between these two teams, the NGE analysis based on Pomeroy based efficiencies indicate a closer game, UK still winning 74-67. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.957 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.771ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Sunday, Tubby Smith replaced Joe Crawford with Jody Meeks in the starting line up. Tonight, he replaced Meeks and Morris for seniors Thomas and Obrzut, who joined fellow senior Perry in the starting lineup, perhaps for the first time in their 4 years at Kentucky . The three seniors joined Bradley and Jasper.

Play started as if two lower division teams are winding up a meaningless season. Both teams committed numerous turnovers, and shot the ball more poorly than normal. However, after about 12 minutes of play both teams seemed to settle down, reduce their turnovers, and begin shooting the ball better. Kentucky took a 6 point lead to the locker room, 34-28.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 15-13 in total rebounds, but Georgia controlled the offensive boards 5-4. Despite the offensive rebounding differential, both teams used their second chances to score 5 points in the first half. The pace is about 74 possessions for UK and Georgia

Georgia scored its 28 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.757 ppp. Georgia had an offensive efficiency of 0.719 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 5 second chance possessions. UK had 0.878 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 0.919 ppp for the first half.

UK was 7 for 9 [77.8%] and Georgia was 1-4 [25.0%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 12-24 overall [50.0%] and a marginal 3-10 from long range [30.0%]. For Georgia , their field goal shooting overall was 12-27 [44.4%] and a poor 4-14 [28.6%] from long range. UK committed 10 turnovers in the half, one for every 3.7 possessions and Georgia committed 10 turnovers for the half, one for every 3.7 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 66 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while Georgia needs 38 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 74 possessions for the game for UK and 74 possessions for Georgia . Kentucky scored its 60 th point on three pointer by Bradley on which he was also fouled. Following the completion of this rare 4 point play, Kentucky led 63-59 with 3:30 to play in the game. Kentucky scored its 66 th point on a Crawford run out with 8 minutes to play and the score 66-48. Kentucky played out the final 8 minutes to secure this Senior Night victory, and the 20 th victory of the year of the Cats, 82-70.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky bolted out of the gates of the second have by scoring the first 5 points, and then outscoring the Bulldogs 10-5 for the first segment, taking a 44-33 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. After the 5-0 start, the teams have played on fairly even terms, 18-16 Kentucky giving the Cats a 13 point lead, 57-44 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace of this game remains in the low to mid 70s range.

In the third segment of the second half, UK again outscored the Bulldogs by 2 points, to expand their lead from 13 to 15 points, 66-51. Just prior to the under 8 TV timeout, Kentucky reached the Magic Number on a Joe Crawford run out. The teams played the final 8 minutes one relatively even terms, with Kentucky winning the game by 12 points, 82-70.

Kentucky dominated the boards for total rebounds, 33-24, but Georgia won the battle of the offensive boards, 12-8, +4. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 12 second chance points and Georgia used its 12 second chance opportunities to post 12 second chance points.

Georgia had an offensive efficiency of 0.906 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.921 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.077 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.123 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a strong 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Georgia was able to convert only a poor 32.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit a strong 11-13 for the game [84.6%] from the free throw line today while Georgia was less effective from the free throw line and below their average, making 5-11 [45.5%]. UK's field goal shooting was well above average, 58.8% [30-51] overall and a very strong 11-21 [52.4%] from long range Georgia's field goal shooting overall was about average for the game, 27-59 [45.8%] and a weak 35.3% from long range, 11-31.

Kentucky committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.4 possessions. Georgia committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.3 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. LSU has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low to mid 80s range. Tonight, UK had only 73 possessions while Georgia had 76 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.109 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 9 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.250 ppp against Georgia tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Bulldogs, while a game NGE of less than -0.100 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Bulldogs. The game NGE was 0.202 ppp tonight.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect Georgia to win the offensive board battle against the Cats tonight, +2. Georgia won the offensive boards, +4.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a rare “D-” respectively as shown below:

UK GEORGIA GRADES

Next Game On Schedule:

On March 4, 2007 , UK will play its 30 th and final regular season game and its 16 th SEC game of the season against Florida on their Senior day at Gainesville , Florida .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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