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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

35
Kentucky Completes Its Regular Season Schedule At Florida
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

In most years, begin to sadden as the end of basketball season approaches and I realize that my favorite pastime will soon be relegated to talking about what might have been and what yet may be. The excitement that the 5 months of active play provides must go on hold for 7 months.

However, as the Cats approach this last game of the regular season, the sadness has different tenor. In most years, the prospect of the upcoming post season tournaments provided at least a two weeks, and perhaps as many as four weeks reprieve for the final ending. This season is different. There is little real hope for a great Kentucky post season, either in the SEC tournament or the NCAA. In fact, Kentucky 's participation in the NCAA is far from certain.

If the fans feel the genuine lack of excitement about the remainder of play, whatever that may be, then certainly the coaches and players have a similar sense. So, the end is near for this season. But, there can't be any new beginnings without a corresponding ending.

Florida on the other hand sits in that special position, ranked high, but recent marginal play on the road had placed their coveted #1 NCAA seed in jeopardy. For Florida , Sunday is time for them to demonstrate to the selectors that they really are worthy of that #1 seed by playing an aggressive, solid game from tip to buzzer. In addition to the real incentives surrounding NCAA seedings, Sunday's game will be “Senior Day” for the Gators. Senior Days always provide the host team an additional emotional boost, and the boost that this day provides this group of Gators will be intensified by it also being a “Junior Day” celebration as well.

The Cats enter this final game of the 2007 season having lost 5 of their last 10 games, and 4 of their last 6 games.

These two teams met earlier at Rupp Arena, and the Cats fought back from a 16 point first half deficit to lose to Florida by only 3 points, 64-61. Based on all games played to date, UK will finish 4 th in the SEC East win or lose, and Florida has long since had the top spot in the conference secured.

After the first 18 basketball games of the 2006-07 season, these Kentucky Wildcats stood at 15-3, riding the wave of an eleven game winning streak off an admittedly shaky start at 4-3. However, the Wildcat Faithful remained hopeful even after that start because the three losses were at the hands of UCLA and Memphis in Maui and at North Carolina . Each of these opponents were highly ranked at the time they defeated the Cats, and remain highly ranked to this day.

Even at the height of UK's 2007 season, in the midst of its highly touted 11-game winning streak, realists pointed to the final 12 games as determinative of how this Wildcat team will be recorded in the history books.

The Cats now stand at 9-6 in SEC play, which will place the Cats in fourth place in the SEC East. This 9-6 record translates into a 5-6 record over the last 11 games, e.g. the first 11 games of the final 12 games. This final game figures to leave the Cats weakened to a 9-7 record.

Floirda enters Sunday's game with a 25-5 record, 12-3 in the SEC. Kentucky comes into this game with an 20-9 record, 9-6 in SEC play. I reviewed their common out of conference opponents prior to the first meeting of the season, and do not repeat that here.

Through thirty games, Florida can claim a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5620 and a RPI ranking of #10. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Florida as the #6 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #16 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 8-point Florida win over the Cats [73-65], estimating the probability of a Kentucky win at 21%.

Kentucky averages 79.3 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.7 possessions per game. Florida currently averages 79.6 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 78.1 possessions per game. Florida has been winning the offensive rebounding battles by +1.5 per game while UK stands at -2.4 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Florida grabs a well above average 36.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Florida allows its opponents only 28.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Florida averages one turnover for each 5.7 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Florida forces one turnover for each 5.7 opponent possessions. Florida 's offensive efficiency has been 0.997 ppp and 79.4 points per game. Florida 's defensive efficiency has been 0.790 ppp while holding opponents to 61.6 ppg. Their NGE is 0.208 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a lower offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.922 ppp while scoring about 73.1 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.810 ppp on about 66.2 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.112 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5620 for Florida and 0.6242 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Florida has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the upper 70s to low 80s range.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.112 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 11 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.030 ppp against Florida tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Gators, while a game NGE of less than a negative -0.170 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Gators.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect Florida to win the offensive board battle against the Cats tonight, +2.

Based on this performance data for Florida and UK to date, which includes twenty nine regular season games and fifteen SEC games for Kentucky and thirty regular season games and fifteen SEC games for Florida, Florida is a 8-point favorite, 74-66 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 80 possessions for Florida . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.846 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.925 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

Sunday, Tubby Smith returned to his starting lineup that Tubby had used for most of the season.

Kentucky controlled the opening tip, and went straight inside to Morris for a quick basket, and the intensity at the defensive end forces a Florida timeout only ½ minute into the game, and on the strength of hitting their first three shots, Kentucky raced out to an early 6-1 lead. However, Florida 's early misses turned into makes, and that coupled with an early 4-0 lead on the offensive boards, allowed Florida to take its first lead, 10-8. A Perry 3, and a Florida turnover allowed Kentucky to take a 1 point lead, 11-10 into the under 16 TV timeout. The pace is in the 80 to 90 range early.

Just as the Cats came out of the blocks with great intensity and then allowed Florida to regain control in the first segment, Kentucky scored the first 5 points out of the timeout, to take a 6 point lead, 16-10,, and again at 19-13. However, at the under 12 TV timeout, Florida has closed the gap back to 1 point, 19-18, and has possession when play resumes. The pace in the second segment slowed noticeably, and the game pace at present is between 75 and 85 possessions. Florida is controlling the boards, 9-3 and 4-0 on the offensive boards. Kentucky is shooting over 60%, and Florida is at 50%.

In the third mini-game, Florida surged into the lead, 23-19, only to have the Cats rebound to regain the lead, 24-23 due to three consecutive Florida turnovers. At the under 8 TV timeout, with 6:41 to play, Florida was clinging to a 1 point lead, 28-27. The UK shooting percentage has dropped from over 60% to about 58% and Florida is now shooting 55% for the game. Both teams are shooting well from beyond the arc.

Kentucky reasserted itself on the offensive end, scoring 9 points in their 6 possessions of the segment, and regaining the lead, 36-35 with 3:36 to play in the first half. The game pace continues to decline, now in the 70 to 80 range. Florida continues strong on the boards, 16-6, 6-0 on the offensive boards, but they have not been taking care of the ball, with 6 turnovers to KY's 2.

The teams played out the final 3 ½ minutes, and ended the half deadlocked at 43 each.

Florida has controlled the boards in this half, 17-9 in total rebounds, and Florida controlled the offensive boards 6-2. The pace is about 72 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for Florida

Florida scored its 43 points on 41 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.075 ppp. Florida had an offensive efficiency of 1.029 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 1.206 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 1.194 ppp for the first half.

UK was 3 for 4 [75.0%] and Florida was 5-10 [50.0%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 17-30 overall [56.7%] and a strong 6-13 from long range [46.2%]. For Florida , their field goal shooting overall was 16-28 [57.1%] and a strong 5-10 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 4 turnovers in the half, one for every 9.0 possessions and Florida committed 8 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.1 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 87 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 44 points, while Florida needs 44 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 72 possessions for the game for UK and 82 possessions for Florida . Florida fell 2 points shy of the Magic Number in the game, and won the game 85-72.

Second Half Summary:

Florida scored the first 4 points of the second half, and outscored the Cats 6-2 in the opening segment of the second half. During that segment, Kentucky hit 1 of its 4 shots and committed 3 turnovers, after the first half only saw them commit 4 turnovers total. Florida on the other hand hit 3 of their 5 shots, committed 2 turnovers, and missed a pair of free throws. Morris committed his 3 rd foul about 20 seconds into the half, and took a seat at Tubby's side. Florida will have two free throws out of the under 16 TV timeout, with 15:30 to play.

Out of the time out, Horford made 1 of his two free throws to extend their lead to their largest of the day, 50-45. When Kentucky was unable to make an inbounds pass, Bradley took an unscheduled Kentucky time out. Following a Perry miss from 12, a Florida 3 pushed the lead to 8 point, but Horford came up lame on the play. After the break in action to tend to Horford , Kentucky committed another turnover, its 5 th of the second half, and another Florida 3 extends the lead to 11 points, 56-45, prompting another Kentucky timeout with 13:47 to play. Tubby decides that he must get Morris into the game and brings him back. In response, Kentucky outscores the Gators 4-2 leading into the under 12 TV timeout, trailing 58-49, with Morris waiting to take two free throws when play resumes with 11:29 to play in the game.

Kentucky was not able to close the gap any closer than the 9 points they managed at the under 12 TV timeout, and out of the timeout, Morris missed both free throws, and then committed his 4 th foul with about 8 ½ minutes to play in the game, returning to the bench. At the under 8 TV timeout, Florida continues to hold its 9 point lead, 66-57, and will have possession when play resumes. The pace remains about 70 possessions for Kentucky and about 80 possessions for Florida .

In the fourth mini-game of the second half, Florida controlled the game and extended their lead to 14 points, 77-63. Following the under 4 TV timeout, Noah will have two free throws. The pace remains in the low to mid 70s range for UK and mid to upper 70s range for Florida . The teams played out the final 2:42 with Florida sealing their victory, 85-72.

Florida dominated the boards for total rebounds, 36-24, and Florida won the battle of the offensive boards, 14-12, +2. Kentucky converted its 12 second chance opportunities into 7 second chance points and Florida used its 14 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

Georgia had an offensive efficiency of 1.092 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.076 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.016 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.583 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.947 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed an above average 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Florida was able to convert only a powerful 53.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit a below average 13-20 for the game [65.0%] from the free throw line today while Florida was less effective from the free throw line and below their average, making 12-22 [54.5%]. UK's field goal shooting was about average for the game after a very fast start, shooting 26-57 [45.6%] overall and a fairly strong 7-18 [38.9%] from long range Florida's field goal shooting overall was strong throughout and got stronger in the second half. For the game, Florida hit 32-50 [64.0%] and a very strong 52.9% from long range, 9-17.

Kentucky committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.4 possessions. Florida committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.4 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Florida has been playing at an even slower pace, 79 to 77 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the upper 70s to low 80s range. Today, Kentucky has 75 possessions to Florida 's 77 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.112 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 11 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.030 ppp against Florida tonight would be a strong Cat performance against the Gators, while a game NGE of less than a negative -0.170 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Gators. The game NGE was -0.144 ppp.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.1 through the first 26 games. I expect Florida to win the offensive board battle against the Cats tonight, +2. Florida controlled the offensive boards, with a +2 on the offensive rebounding margin for the game.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below:

UK @ FLA GRADES

Next Game:

On March 8, 2007 , UK will play its 31 st game and its first post season game of the 2007 season in the SEC Tournament against either Auburn or Alabama . The SEC Tournament will occur in Atlanta .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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