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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

36
Kentucky Begins Post Season Play in SEC Against Alabama
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

The regular season has come to a merciful end for the 2006-07 Kentucky Wildcats with a 20-10, 9-7 record and a 4 th place finish in the SEC East. Today, the Cats get their second life of this season and begin their appearance in the SEC Tournament against the #5 Seed from the SEC West, Alabama also 20-10, but only 7-9 in the SEC.

Pre-season, Alabama was widely respected throughout the SEC and indeed the nation. Many believed that Alabama and LSU would slug it out for SEC West honors, but that type of season simply did not occur for Alabama , or LSU, as they ended slugging it out for the right to occupy the West cellar. Alabama'a team has been distracted by injuries and external events that have affected their players' focus. Even today, two of Alabama 's key starters are ailing. Steele has missed Alabama 's stretch drive due to knee problems and Hendricks injured in back in their last game against Mississippi State . Both are expected to play today, but their effectiveness remains unknown.

Kentucky on the other hand enters this game at full strength physically, but with many bruised egos. The players and coaches have failed to perform all season long at levels consistent with their own words or expectations. Tubby Smith is clearly on the hot seat following this second straight season with 10 or more regular season losses. Over the last 3 days between the season finale against Florida and this SEC Tournament appearance, Tubby has appeared on more TV and radio outlets for the sole purpose of defending his pitiful record than preparing his team for the next challenge.

The Cats enter the 2007 post-season having lost 5 of their last 10 games, and 7 of their last 12 games. This finish occurred after what some observers saw as an outstanding 15-3 start that included an 11 game winning streak during the middle portion of their schedule.

These two teams met earlier in Tuscaloosa , and the Cats fought back from a 14 point first half deficit to close the gap to 8 points at half time. In the second half, Kentucky scored first to cut the lead to 6 points, but the Cats never closed the gap any further as Alabama won by 11 points, 72-61. In that game, Alabama 's offensive efficiency was 0.960 points per possession while Kentucky could only score at a rate of 0.772 ppp for the game. UK committed 17 turnovers to Alabama 's 12.

Entering post season play, Alabama has a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5629 and a RPI ranking of #44. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Alabama as the #57 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #18 ranked team.

Kentucky averages 79.2 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.6 possessions per game. Alabama currently averages 81.6 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 81.6 possessions per game. Alabama has been getting as many offensive rebounds per game as its opponents this season while UK stands at -2.4 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 33.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Alabama grabs a well above average 39.2% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Alabama allows its opponents 34.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions, and Alabama averages one turnover for each 5.9 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while Alabama only forces one turnover for each 6.8 opponent possessions. Alabama 's offensive efficiency has been 0.905 ppp and 73.8 points per game. Alabama 's defensive efficiency has been 0.840 ppp while holding opponents to 68.5 ppg. Their NGE is 0.065 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.923 ppp while scoring about 73.1 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.819 ppp on about 66.8 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.104 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5629 for Alabama and 0.6255 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Alabama has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range.

• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.200 ppp against Alabama today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than 0.000 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Alabama .

• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.4 through the first 30 games. I expect Alabama to win the offensive board battle against the Cats tonight, +1.

Based on this performance data for Alabama and UK to date, which includes thirty regular season games and a full 16-game SEC schedule for both teams, Kentucky is a 9-point favorite, 75-66 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for Alabama . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.943 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.815 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby Smith stayed with his same starting lineup that he had used for most of the season.

Alabama controlled the opening tip, committed a turnover, and Randolph Morris drained a 12 footer to start the game. Thereafter, UK drew blanks on 7 shots, and Alabama scored 3 points to take a fragile 1 point lead to the under 16 TV timeout with free throws coming to Davidson out of the break.

The teams continued to feel each other out for the next 3 minutes, until the 12:40 mark with Alabama holding to that same early 1 point lead following a three pointer by Kentucky . Then Alabama scored the next 7 points to take a 8 point lead to the bench at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:23 to play in the first half. The pace is about 80 possessions after the first 9 ½ minutes of play.

In the third segment, Alabama stretched the lead to 10 points, 21-11 before Kentucky scored 6 straight points to cut the lead to 4 points, 21-17 at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, Alabama's turnover followed by another Kentucky 3 pointer, and a follow up by Perry to give UK a one point lead, 22-21 prompting an Alabama timeout at the 6:30 mark.

Kentucky finally took a 3 point lead, but Alabama ended its 9 minutes scoring drought and regained the lead, 25-24 at the under 4 TV timeout. In the final segment, Kentucky outscored ‘Bama 11-2 to take a commanding 35-27 lead to the locker room.

Alabama has controlled the boards in this half, 15-13 in total rebounds, and Kentucky controlled the offensive boards 5-3. The pace is about 70 possessions for UK and 68 possessions for Alabama

Alabama scored its 27 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.794 ppp. Alabama had an offensive efficiency of 0.839 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had 0.900 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 1.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 1.000 ppp for the first half.

UK was 2 for 4 [50.0%] and Alabama was 6-8 [75.0%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 14-30 overall [46.7%] and a strong 5-13 from long range [38.5%]. For Alabama , their field goal shooting overall was 10-22 [45.5%] and a marginal 1-3 [33.3%] from long range. UK committed 3 turnovers in the half, one for every 11.7 possessions and Alabama committed 8 turnovers for the half, one for every 4.2 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 67 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while Alabama needs 40 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 70 possessions for the game for UK and 68 possessions for Alabama . Kentucky scored its 67 th point on a Crawford three with 6:37 to play in the game and Kentucky holding to a 69-53 lead.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky scored first to extend their lead to 10 points, 37-27, but Alabama charged back to within three points, 39-36 before Randolph Morris took charge of the game at both ends, and Kentucky rebuilt its 8 point half time lead, 44-36, prompting an Alabama timeout with 17 minutes to play. After the ‘Bama timeout, the teams played on relatively even terms to the under 16 TV timeout with 14:52 to play. At this break, Kentucky holds to a 9 point lead, 49-40 and Alabama is scheduled for 2 free throws out of the break.

After Kentucky reestablished its 10 point lead a couple of additional times, Alabama began a small run to cut the lead to 5 points at the under 12 TV timeout, 52-47. However, out of the timeout, Kentucky 's Ramel Bradley scored the next 5 points to extend the lead back to 10 points, 57-47, prompting another Alabama timeout with 10:31 to play in the game.

Kentucky controlled the game from this point to the under 4 TV timeout, extending their lead to 18 points, 75-57 at the under 4 TV timeout. Alabama trimmed the margin during the last segment to lose by 12, 79-67.

Kentucky dominated the boards for total rebounds, 34-26, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards, 13-7, +6. Kentucky converted its 13 second chance opportunities into 16 second chance points and Alabama used its 7 second chance opportunities to post 11 second chance points.

Alabama had an offensive efficiency of 0.862 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.862 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.955 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.231 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.000 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed an above average 40.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Alabama was able to convert only a poor 25.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit an above average 10-14 for the game [71.4%] from the free throw line today while Alabama was less effective from the free throw line and below their average, making 15-23 [65.2%]. UK 's field goal shooting was above average for the game after a very poor start, shooting 30-60 [50.0%] overall and a very strong 9-22 [40.9%] from long range. Alabama 's field goal shooting overall was about a60.0% from long range, 6-10.

Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.6 possessions. Alabama committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.0 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Alabama has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range. Today, Kentucky had 79 possessions and Alabama had 72 possessions.

• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.200 ppp against Alabama today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than 0.000 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Alabama . The game NGE today was 0.069.

• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.4 through the first 30 games. I expect Alabama to win the offensive board battle against the Cats tonight, +1. Kentucky controlled the boards at both ends of the floor and won the Offensive Rebounding Margin, +6.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “D-” respectively as shown below:

Next Game:

On March 9, 2007 , UK will play its 32 nd game and its second post season game of the 2007 season in the SEC Tournament against Mississippi State .. The SEC Tournament is occurring in Atlanta .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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