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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

37
Kentucky Advances To SEC Quarterfinals Against Miss. St.
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

As if the Post Season opportunities have breathed new life into a dieing group of Wildcats, and given Tubby Smith renewed hope that his seat will cool down over the next few days. On Thursday, Kentucky man-handled an injury weakened Crimson Tide by 12 points. Friday, they must face the SEC West Division #1 seed, Mississippi State .

This raises a familiar question, albeit one that Kentucky has in the past answered with a resounding NO when they have held that precious first round bye. Does a team with one game under its belt in the SEC tournament have an advantage over a seeded team who will play its first game. Now, UK fans everywhere want that answer to be YES.

On Thursday, the Cats avenged a regular season loss to Mississippi State , but frankly Mississippi State was a shell of the team it was a mere month ago given injuries to Steele and Davidson. Today, the Cats will face a team it defeated in Lexington in January by a mere 4 points, 64-60.

Entering post season play, Mississippi State has a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5708 and a RPI ranking of #66. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Mississippi State as the #57 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #18 ranked team.

Kentucky averages 79.2 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.3 possessions per game. Mississippi State currently averages 83.1 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 83.1 possessions per game. Mississippi State has been getting as many offensive rebounds per game as its opponents this season while UK stands at -2.1 per game. UK grabs an NCAA average 34.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Mississippi State grabs a well above average 34.9% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Mississippi State allows its opponents 32.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and Mississippi State averages one turnover for each 6.0 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.2 opponent possessions while Mississippi State only forces one turnover for each 5.9 opponent possessions. Mississippi State 's offensive efficiency has been 0.915 ppp and 76.0 points per game. Mississippi State 's defensive efficiency has been 0.816 ppp while holding opponents to 67.8 ppg. Their NGE is 0.099 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.925 ppp while scoring about 73.3 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.822 ppp on about 66.8 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.103 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5708 for Mississippi State and 0.6261 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Mississippi State has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range.

• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.150 ppp against Mississippi State today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than -0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Mississippi State .

• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.4 through the first 30 games. I expect Mississippi State and Kentucky to get the same number of offensive rebounds in this game.

Based on this performance data for Mississippi State and UK to date, which includes thirty regular season games and a full 16-game SEC schedule for both teams, and one SEC Tournament win for Kentucky, Kentucky is a 4-point favorite, 73-69 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for Mississippi State . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.852 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby Smith stayed with his same starting lineup that he had used for most of the season.

After Mississippi State scored the first 5 points of the game, Kentucky countered with five straight of their own, capped by a 3 point drive down the lane by Crawford. At the under 16 TV timeout, the teams remained deadlocked, 5-5. In this first segment, Kentucky crashed the offensive boards, getting 3 to State's 1. In the second segment, UK continued its scoring streak and actually built a 6 point lead, 11-5, before MSU scored again. Kentucky score the last 4 points of the segment to take a 15-10 lead at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the 3 rd mini-game, MSU responded by running off 9 straight points to convert a 5 point deficit to a 4 point lead, but a Morris 3 point play stopped the MSU run just prior to the under 8 TV timeout, with MSU leading by 1 point, 19-18. Out of the timeout, UK continued its run, regaining its earlier 6 point lead, 25-19, and by the under 4 TV timeout, UK had extended its least to 8 points, and lead by 7, 31-24, at the timeout. The pace is low 80s for both teams through the first 17 minutes of this game.

In the final 3 minutes of the half, MSU climbed back from their maximum deficit, 8 points, to trail by just 3 points at the half, 34-31.

Kentucky has controlled the boards in this half, 22-18 in total rebounds, but MSU won the battle of the offensive boards, 7-6 for +1 in the first half. The pace is about 84 possessions for UK and 86 possessions for Mississippi State

Mississippi State scored its 31 points on 43 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.721 ppp. Mississippi State had an offensive efficiency of 0.667 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.750 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 0.810 ppp for the first half.

UK was 8 for 10 [80.0%] and Mississippi State was 6-7 [85.7%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 12-28 overall [42.9%] and a weak 2-11 from long range [18.2%]. For Mississippi State , their field goal shooting overall was 12-35 [34.3%] and a very poor 1-11 [9.1%] from long range. UK committed 9 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.7 possessions and Mississippi State committed 5 turnovers for the half, one for every 8.6 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 67 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while Mississippi State needs 36 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game for UK and 86 possessions for Mississippi State . MSU scored its 67 th point on a Richard Delk three with 5:37 to play in the game and MSU holding to a 66-63 lead. MSU played out the final 5 ½ minutes to secure the victory, 84-82 in overtime.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the half with a Morris three point play to stretch the lead back to 6 points, but MSU came charging back through the remainder of the first segment of the second half, out scoring UK 12-3 thereafter, taking a 43-39 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. After the timeout, Kentucky cut the lead back to two points with two more Morris free throws, that when MSU responded with 6 straight points to extend their lead to 8 points for the first time today, Tubby Smith called an unscheduled timeout, with MSU leading 49-41 with about 13 ½ minutes to play. Morris picked up his 2 nd and 3 rd fouls within about 10 seconds, sending the Cat's only consistent scorer to the bench.

The timeout did not turn back the Bulldog run, and when MSU extended the lead to 12 points, Tubby called another time out so he could get Morris back into the game at the 11:44 mark. Out of the timeout, another Kentucky missed resulted in another Kentucky rebounding foul, leading to the under 12 TV timeout with 11:33 remaining in the game and MSU holding on to a 12 point lead, 55-43.. After MSU extended to 14 points, 57-43, Kentucky started another run of its own, 7-2, to cut the lead back to single digits, 59-50, prompting an unscheduled MSU timeout this time. The teams battled relatively even from this point to the under 8 TV timeout with MSU leading by 9 points, 61-52 with 7:45 to play.

Kentucky continues its comeback and cuts the lead to 2 points twice, 63-61, and 65-63, and MSU takes a time out after this second time. .A Richard Delk 3 put MSU back up by 5, but UK answered with a Crawford 3, to cut the lead back to 2 points for a third time at 68-66, at the under 4 TV timeout.

Crunch time has arrived for both of these teams.

Jodie Meeks makes both free throws out of the timeout to tie the game at 68, the second tie of the game. In the last 10 seconds, MSU missed a 3 that would have given them then fouled lead with 5 second remaining. However, after making the first of 2 UK committed a lane violation, and MSU hit a 3 at the buzzer to tie the game at 76-76, taking the game to OT.

In the overtime, both teams exchanged and took their best shots, and at the end of the MSU prevailed by 2 points, 84-82.

Kentucky dominated the boards for total rebounds, 43-40, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards, 21-13, +8. Kentucky converted its 21 second chance opportunities into 19 second chance points and Mississippi State used its 13 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

Mississippi State had an offensive efficiency of 0.864 ppp on its 81 first chance possessions and 1.077 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.894 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.788 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 0.905 ppp on its 21 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.812 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a very strong 43.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Mississippi State was able to convert only a strong 37.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit an above average 23-30 for the game [76.7%] from the free throw line today while Mississippi State was only slightly less effective from the free throw line, making 21-30 [70.0%]. UK 's field goal shooting was very low for the game, shooting 27-71 [38.0%] overall and a very weak 5-21 [23.8%] from long range. Mississippi State 's field goal shooting overall was about 46.8% [29-62], and a cool 5-18 [27.8%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.7 possessions. Mississippi State committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.5 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Mississippi State has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves and their opponents. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range. For this game, Kentucky had 100 possessions, 25 of which occurred in the frantic last 4 minutes and 5 minute overtime, and MSU had 94 possessions, of which 16 occurred in those final 9 minutes.

• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.150 ppp against Mississippi State today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than -0.050 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Mississippi State . The game NGE was -0.113 for the game.

• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -2.4 through the first 30 games. I expect Mississippi State and Kentucky to get the same number of offensive rebounds in this game. Kentucky won the offensive rebounding battles, +8.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

Next Game:

This loss eliminates Kentucky from the SEC Tournament, and the next game will be either in the NCAA or NIT, and will not be announced until at least Sunday evening. .

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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