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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

39
Cats Travel to Notre Dame for NIT Elite 8 Match Up

39

Cats Travel to Notre Dame for NIT Elite 8 Match Up

On Monday night, the Cats managed to stay close to CREIGHTON for nearly the entire game, playing from behind 1 to 5 points except for a half dozen or so brief defensive possessions in which they failed to protect their temporary 1 point leads for no more than a few seconds each time. However, Jodie Meeks managed to give the Cats their only 2 point lead of the game with an old fashioned three point play with about 10 seconds to play. The ensuing defensive possession was the only one of the night on which the Cats prevented a CREIGHTON score and sacrificed the lead. As a result, the Cats won the game 65-63 and advance to the quarterfinal round of the NIT at Notre Dame on Wednesday night.

The Cats' season continues for at least one more game.

Notre Dame's season has had its ups and downs just like the Cats' season. During one stretch of their season, Notre Dame lost 7 consecutive games, and lost 9 of 13. The periods before and afterward, Notre Dame posted a 16-5 record for an overall 20-14 record entering this game. The Cats also had one segment of the season during which the Cats lost 4 in a row, and lost 9 of 13 games. The periods before and after, Kentucky posted 18-4 record for an overall record of 22-13 entering this game. The difference is the timing of these respective slumps. Notre Dame's occurred mid season, and they have now won 8 of their last 12 games to demonstrate, at least to the satisfaction of their own psyche, that their slump has ended. The Cats' slump on the other hand occurred at the end of the season, and the Cats have little basis to conclude that their slump has ended.

NOTRE DAME enters this game with a record of 20-14 recond. NOTRE DAME has averaged 81.9 possessions per game while allowing opponents 81.2 possessions. NOTRE DAME has averaged 76.2 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.931 ppp. On the defensive end, NOTRE DAME has allowed 70.9 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.873 ppp. NOTRE DAME averages about 9.7 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 10.4 turnovers per game. On the glass, NOTRE DAME secures about 31.8% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 30.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 22-13, 9-9 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 82.0 possessions per game and their opponents average 83.1 possessions. The Cats average about 74.3 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.906 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66.0 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp. The Cats average 17.1 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.6 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.8% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

Both teams opened the game with good shooting, and no turnovers. Notre Dame managed to outscore the Cats 14-11 in a prolonged opening segment, and in the shortened second segment, the Cats trimmed that early lead to only 1 point, 16-15 at the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace is low to mid 70s possessions, and through the first 8 minutes, there has only been one turnover, by Notre Dame thus far. Out of the timeout, the Cats committed their first turnover, and Notre Dame made them pay. Three three point baskets a second UK turnover pushed Notre Dame pushed out to 8 points, 26-18, prompting a UK timeout with 8:55 to play. On the Cats' next possession, they committed their third turnover in the segment. The Cats did manage to trim the lead back to 6 points, 26-20, at the under 8 TV timeout and Notre Dame will have possession when play resumes.

In the fourth segment, the teams traded baskets, and a Notre Dame three pointer, their 6 th of the half, pushed the lead out to 7 points, 31-24 at the under 4 TV timeout. Another three pointer gave Notre Dame their biggest lead of the game, 10 points, 34-24 with just over a minute to play in the half. The Cats managed to trim only 2 points from that lead, to trail by 8 points at the half, 34-26.

The pace of the first half was 74 possessions for the Cats and 70 for NOTRE DAME. Kentucky had 30 first chance and 7 second chances while NOTRE DAME had 31 first chances and 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 20-15 advantage for total rebounds, and Kentucky won the battle on the offensive glass, 7-4. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 6 points, and NOTRE DAME used its second chance possessions for 3 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 38.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed NOTRE DAME to grab a very weak 23.5% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 7 turnovers, and NOTRE DAME committed 5 turnovers.

NOTRE DAME had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 31 first half possessions and 0.750 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.667 ppp on its 30 first half possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

The Cats did not get a single free throw in the first half while NOTRE DAME made 3-5 [60.0%] from the free throw line in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 12-30 [40.0%] for the half overall. The Cats made a fine 2-5 [40.0%] from long range . For NOTRE DAME, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very strong 7-14 [50.0%], and NOTRE DAME shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 5-14 [35.7%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 65 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 39 points and NOTRE DAME needs 31 points. Notre Dame scored its 65 th point on free throws with 4:42 to play and ND leading 66-55. The teams played out the final 4:42 and ND advances to Madison Square Garden with a 77-67 win, and Kentucky's season comes to an end with a 22-14 record.

Second Half Summary:

ND opened the second half with back-to-back threes around a Patterson basket to extend their lead to a game high 12 points, 40-28. The teams traded baskets for the rest of the opening segment, with Notre Dame leading by 12 points, 45-33 at the under 16 TV timeout and ND will have two free throws when play resumes with a chance to extend their lead to a new high for the game. Out of the timeout, ND made 1 of 2 and converted another Cat turnover into a basket to push their lead to 15 points, 48-33, prompting another UK timeout 14:08 to play in the game. Meeks and Patterson have been rendered non-factors by a ND defense that has learned it can ignore Stevenson, Harris and Porter as legitimate threats to score.

Out of the timeout, the Cats got a basket from Patterson, but the defense allowed another second chance basket to push the lead back to 15 points. A pair of three pointers by Meeks cut the lead back to 11 points, 52-41 at the under 12 TV timeout and ND in possession of the basketball. In the third segment, ND continued to keep the Cats at bay with excellent three point shooting, now 12-24 for the game, and maintained a 14 point lead, 62-48, at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:55 to play in the game. The maximum ND lead in the game was 17 points, and leading to the under 4 TV timeout the Cats cut that lead to 6 points, 66-60, primarily on the shoulders of Meeks. With 2:58 to play in the game, ND will be shooting 2 free throws when play resumes. The Cats managed to cut the lead to 5 points, but could get no closer as ND made 9-10 free throws down the stretch to secure a 10 point win, 77-67.

UK scored its 67 points in a total of 66 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.015 ppp. NOTRE DAME scored its 77 points on a total of 72 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.1.069 ppp.

NOTRE DAME fought back from a halftime deficit on the boards to battle Kentucky on even terms, 30-30 and NOTRE DAME won on the offensive glass 11-7. Kentucky converted their 7-second chance into 6 points while NOTRE DAME converted its 11-second chances into 13 points.

NOTRE DAME had an offensive efficiency of 1.049 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.182 ppp for its 11-second chance possessions. UK had 1.034 ppp on its 59 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed weak 26.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while NOTRE DAME was able to grab a slightly better 32.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 6.6 possessions and forced NOTRE DAME into one turnover in every 12.0 possessions.

The Cats shot well from the line, hitting 10-12 [83.3%]. NOTRE DAME made 15-22 from the line [68.2%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a good 25-50 overall [50.0%] including a very strong 7-14 from long range [50.0%]. For NOTRE DAME, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was strong, 12-25 [48.0%] and NOTRE DAME shot poorly from inside the arc, 13-31 [41.9%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 2 point Kentucky loss [71-73], and the outcome was slightly different, a 10 point Kentucky loss, 67-77. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.866 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 1.015 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.069 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “D-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/36_Grades_NIT@ND.jpg[/img]

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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