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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

38
Cats Travel to Creighton for NIT Sweet 16 Match Up

Last Tuesday night, the Cats survived a late game UNLV comeback and advanced to the Sweet 16 of the NIT, and tonight the Cats will face Creighton on their floor for the right to play Notre Dame. Yes, the Cats are still playing basketball, and yes it is March, but the madness this spring has little to do with these games, and everything to do with the frustrations of a season gone bad wrong over the last 14 games, and the rumors that the disappointing finish have fostered.

Has Coach Gillispie lost this team? Are players in active mutiny against their coach? Has AD Barnhart identified an opening large enough to run a Lextran Bus over the very coach he hired to rebuild this program a scant two years ago? Will Gillispie return to continue the rebuilding process, or have decisions already been made at the highest levels of the University to make another coaching change. Will Coach Gillispie even be on the bench tonight when the team takes the floor?

These, and other related questions dominate the chatter within the Big Blue Nation these days, and very little chatter is occurring about this game. The game has become merely an incidental occurrence to the primary storyline of the coaching drama.

CREIGHTON enters this game with a record of 27-7 recond. CREIGHTON has averaged 78.2 possessions per game while allowing opponents 80.1 possessions. CREIGHTON has averaged 73.6 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.941 ppp. On the defensive end, CREIGHTON has allowed 65.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.818 ppp. CREIGHTON averages about 12.2 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16.1 turnovers per game. On the glass, CREIGHTON secures about 28.5% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 34.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 21-13, 9-9 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 82.3 possessions per game and their opponents average 83.2 possessions. The Cats average about 74.6 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.794 ppp. The Cats average 17.2 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.6 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.5% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

Creighton opened the scoring on the first possession with a 3 pointer, and after 2 possessions, the score was tied 5-5. However, Creighton outscored the Cats 2-0 for the rest of the opening segment to take an early 2 point lead, 7-5 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the opening segment, the pace was slow, and Creighton converted 2 offensive rebounds into 2 second chance points, and both teams committed 2 turnovers. In the second segment, the Cats tied the score again at 7-7 on a Patterson dunk, but Patterson committed his second foul of the game on Creighton's next possession, and had to go to the bench to protect him from a 3 rd first half foul. The Cats trade baskets with Creighton until a 3 pointer by Miller gives the Cats their first lead of the game, 12-11, at the under 12 TV timeout.

In the third segment, Creighton regained the lead, and extend that lead to 4 points on two occasions, including 21-17 at the under 8 TV timeout. Harris will be shooting two free throws when play resumes. In the fourth segment, the Cats caught up at 21-21 on a Meeks three pointer, but Creighton took advantage of another Cat turnover to sprint back out to a 4 point lead, 25-21, prompting a Kentucky timeout with just under 5 minutes to play. Out of the timeout, the Cats responded with 5 straight points to regain the lead by 1 point, but as has occurred twice before in this game, Creighton hit a 3 pointer on their next possession to regain the lead, 28-26 at the under 4 TV timeout and 2:56 to play in the first half. Creighton will be shooting 2 free throws when play resumes.

The teams played the final segment as the Cats trimmed the lead to 2 points, 33-31 at the half.

The pace of the first half was 76 possessions for the Cats and 90 for CREIGHTON. Kentucky had 33 first chance and 5 second chances while CREIGHTON had 34 first chances and 11 second chance possessions. Creighton ended the half with a 24-18 advantage for total rebounds, and Creighton won the battle on the offensive glass, 11-5. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 5 points, and CREIGHTON used its second chance possessions for 12 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a weak 27.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed CREIGHTON to grab a very powerful 45.0% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 8 turnovers, and CREIGHTON committed 6 turnovers.

CREIGHTON had an offensive efficiency of 0.618 ppp on its 34 first half possessions and 1.091 ppp for its 11 second chance possession. UK had 0.788 ppp on its 33 first half possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

The Cats made only 5-9 [55.5%]. CREIGHTON made 8-11 [72.7%] from the free throw line in the first half. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 11-26 [42.3%] for the half overall. The Cats made a fine 4-7 [57.1%] from long range . For CREIGHTON, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a strong 3-8 [37.5%], and CREIGHTON shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 8-26 [30.8%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 66 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 35 points and CREIGHTON needs 33 points. Neither team reached 66 points in the game, but the Cats did make 65, and Creighton missed a 3 point attempt at the final buzzer that would have given them 66 points. The Cats win 65-63 to advance to the NIT quarterfinal round at Notre Dame on Wednesday night.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins much the same as the first have was played, with the Cats hitting a higher percentage from the field, but Creighton owning the boards, and getting second chances and second chance points. After falling behind early by a game high 5 points early, 38-33, the Cats scored the next 4 points and trimmed the Creighton lead to 1 point, 38-37 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats regain the lead, 39-38, and unlike the last two times, Creighton missed a 3 point attempt, but got their 15 th offensive rebound that produced another basket to regain the lead. However, unlike the prior times the Cats scored to take it back, and got a defensive stop for the first time tonight while holding the lead. However, the Cats could not hold the lead, and Creighton regained a 1 point lead, 42-41 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, Creighton forced another Kentucky turnover, and converted it into an old fashioned three point play the old fashioned way. The teams then traded baskets for the next 3 minutes, and Creighton continues to lead by 2 points, 51-49 at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, Creighton again move up by 4 points, 53-49, but the Cats score 5 straight, an old fashioned three point play by Harris, and a Patterson jump shot from the free throw line, to regain the lead, 54-53, prompting a Creighton timeout with 5:55 to play in the game, and Creighton will have possession when play resumes. Out of the timeout, a three pointer by Creighton gave Creighton the lead, and an exchange of a Patterson 2 pointer for another Creighton 3 pointer gave Creighton a 3 point lead, 59-56 at the under 4 TV timeout.

A Patterson put back and pair of Patterson free throws allowed the Cats to claw back into a tie at 60-60 with 2:40 to play in the game. Creighton eased back into the lead, 63-60, but 5 points by the Cats, enabled by missed Creighton free throws, and an old fashioned three point play by Meeks gave the Cats their biggest lead of the game, 65-63, with about 10 seconds to play. Creighton missed on their what would have been a game winning three point shot, and Meeks wrapped up the rebound to secure the victory for the Cats, 65-63 which was just enough to get the win.

UK scored its 65 points in a total of 69 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.942 ppp. CREIGHTON scored its 63 points on a total of 79 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.798 ppp.

Creighton won the total rebounding battle, 35-34 and Creighton won on the offensive glass 17-10. Kentucky converted their 10-second chance into 9 points while CREIGHTON converted its 17-second chances into 19 points.

CREIGHTON had an offensive efficiency of 0.710 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.118 ppp for its 17-second chance possessions. UK had 0.949 ppp on its 59 first chance possessions and 0.900 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed good 35.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CREIGHTON was able to grab an even better 41.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.3 possessions and forced CREIGHTON into one turnover in every 6.6 possessions.

The Cats shot well from the line, hitting 15-19 [78.9%]. CREIGHTON made 11-19 from the line [57.9%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a good 23-58 overall [47.9%] including a good 4-9 from long range [44.4%]. For CREIGHTON, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was strong, 8-19 [42.1%] and CREIGHTON shot poorly from inside the arc, 14-40 [35.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 4 point Kentucky loss [68-72], and the outcome was significantly different, a 2 point Kentucky win, 65-63. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.840 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.942 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.889 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.798 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “B-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/35_Grades_NITCREI.jpg[/img]

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Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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