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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

37
Cats Host UNLV at Memorial
In NIT First Round Match Up

Last week, the Cats' finished their 2008-09 regular season, and fell to LSU in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals with virtually no hope of any NCAA March Madness for the first time since the program was on NCAA probation in 1991. Now, their 2009 season continues as one of four #4 seeds in the NIT. The Cats will host this first round game against UNLV, but should the Cats win tonight and advance, they will probably not play another game in Lexington this season.

To add to this drama, tonight's game will be held on hallowed ground, within the historic Memorial Coliseum, on the Campus. This will be the first UK Men's Basketball game against a real opponent in this building since 1975, when the Cats struggled but beat Mississippi State on that year's senior night.

Will this be Coach Billy Gillispie's last hurrah as the head coach of the UK Wildcat basketball team? Many belief it will be, while some still believe that Gillispie will survive the last 13 games of this season to return again for his 3 rd year as the Cats' top Cat. No one will know the answer to this question until the season comes to a complete end, sometime within the next 2 to 3 weeks, so for now at least the focus remains on playing, and hopefully winning, some more basketball games. Each additional game the Cats can manage in this NIT is one more win that UNC must gain before they can again claim to be the winningest program of all time.

UNLV enters this game with a record of 21-10 recond after losing in the first round of the Mountain west Conference Tournament to San Diego State by 14 points.. UNLV has averaged 77.8 possessions per game while allowing opponents 78.3 possessions. UNLV has averaged 69.0 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.887 ppp. On the defensive end, UNLV has allowed 64.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.820 ppp. UNLV averages about 11.9 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 15.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, UNLV secures about 29.1% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 32.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 20-13, 9-9 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 82.6 possessions per game and their opponents average 83.6 possessions. The Cats average about 74.8 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.905 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.792 ppp. The Cats average 17.4 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.8 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.9% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

The Cats open this game in much the same manner as it has all season, 4 turnovers on the first 8 possessions, and only 1 for 4 shooting, while UNLV hit 3 of their first 6 shots to sprint out to an early 5 point lead, 7-2, at the under 16 TV timeout of the first half. The early pace is about 80 possessions. Out of the timeout, another UK turnover resulted in another UNLV basket and a 7 point deficit. Then the Cats ran off 8 straight points of their own to reclaim the lead, 10-9. The teams traded baskets for the remainder of the extended second segment, and UNLV continues to lead by 1 point, 13-12 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:38 to play in the half.

At about the midway point of the first half, the pace continues in the 80 possession range. Each team has 5 early turnovers, and the rebounding is identical, 8 total, and 1 offensive board for each team. In the shortened third segment, the Cats moved up by a game high for them 2 points, 17-15 on a Meeks three pointer, but a free throw by UNLV cut the lead back to 1 point, 17-16 at the under 8 TV timeout and UNLV will have a pair of free throws when play resumes. UNLV missed both free throws and the Cats extended their lead to 9 points, 27-18 on an eight point run, prompting an UNLV timeout with 3:54 to play in the first half, and the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats continue their run with a strong final segment to take their largest lead of the night to the locker room, 36-24.

The pace of the first half was 78 possessions for the Cats and 76 for UNLV. Kentucky had 35 first chance and 4 second chances while UNLV had 34 first chances and 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 22-16 advantage for total rebounds, and the teams battled on even terms on the offensive glass, 4-4. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 6 points, and UNLV used its second chance possessions for 5 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a weak 25.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed UNLV to grab an even weaker 18.2% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 7 turnovers, and UNLV committed 5 turnovers.

UNLV had an offensive efficiency of 0.559 ppp on its 34 first half possessions and 1.250 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.857 ppp on its 35 first half possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

The Cats made only 4-6 [66.7%]. UNLV made 1-6 [17.8%] from the free throw line in the first half. After a slow start, the Cats shot the ball fairly well over the half, making 14-29 [48.3%] for the half overall. The Cats made a fine 4-8 [50.0%] from long range . For UNLV, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very poor 3-17 [17.6%], and UNLV shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 7-13 [53.8%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 67 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 31 points and UNLV needs 43 points. Kentucky scored their 67 th point on a free throws by Meeks with 1:08 to play and Kentucky leading 67-57. The teams played out the final 1:08 with Kentucky securing the victory, 70-60, and allowing the Cats to advance to round 2 of the NIT.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky scored the first 6 points on their first 3 possessions of the second half to extend the lead to 18 points, 42-24, prompting an early UNLV timeout with 18:32 to play. While the timeout ended the Cats' shut out, it did not slow the Cats down, and they finished the opening segment out scoring UNLV 14-6, to take a commanding 20 point lead, 50-30, at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment of the half, UNLV trimmed the Cat lead from the maximum of 20 points to 18 points at the under 12 TV timeout and UNLV will have possession with the score 56-38.

Out of the time, UNLV scored 9 straight points on just 4 possessions to cut the Kentucky lead to single digits, 56-47, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 9:21 to play in the game. After the timeout, the teams traded baskets to the end of a slightly prolonged third segment, with the Cats leading by 8 points, 60-52 at the under 8 TV timeout and 7:03 to play in the game. UNLV will be shooting two free throws with a chance to cut the lead to only 6 points when play resumes. UNLV converted on both free throws, and after both teams commit turnovers, Kentucky takes a quick timeout, up 6 points, 60-54 with 5:45 to play in the game. Another Kentucky turnover and a UNLV 3 pointer cut the lead to only 3 points, 60-57, at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:39 to play in the game. Kentucky's Stevenson will have 2 free throws when play resumes. He made 1 of the 2 tries. UNLV would get no closer than 3 points, and the Cats put the game away by 10 points, 70-60.

UK scored its 70 points in a total of 72 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.972 ppp. UNLV scored its 60 points on a total of 70 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.857 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 36-28 and Kentucky won on the offensive glass 7-6. Kentucky converted their 7-second chance into 10 points while UNLV converted its 6-second chances into 8 points.

UNLV had an offensive efficiency of 0.813 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp for its 6-second chance possessions. UK had 0.923 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.429 ppp on its 7-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed very poor 24.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UNLV was able to grab an even poorer 17.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 6.0 possessions and forced UNLV into one turnover in every 7.0 possessions.

The Cats shot poorly from the line, hitting 12-17 [70.6%]. UNLV made 8-14 from the line [57.1%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a good 26-52 overall [50.0%] including a good 6-16 from long range [37.5%]. For UNLV, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was weak, 10-33 [30.3%] and UNLV shot very well from inside the arc, 11-21 [52.4%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 11 point Kentucky win [74-63], and the outcome was slightly different, a 10 point Kentucky win, 70-60. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.925 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.972 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.778 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.857 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/34_Grades_NITUNLV.jpg[/img]

Next Game:

The Cats now advance to the second round of the NIT and will play the winner of the Creighton-Bowling Green game tomorrow night, probably on Monday, March 23, 2009.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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