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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

36
Cats Beat Mississippi
Advance to Play LSU in Quarterfinals

On Thursday, the Cats and the Rebels squared off in Tampa in game 1 of the SEC Tournament, and when the final buzzer sounded, the Cats handed out some measure of revenge on Mississippi for a loss at the Rebels' hands at the end of January, 71-58. It is tournament time, which means survive and advance, which is precisely what this team did today. Tomorrow, at 1 pm, these Cats will face the SEC regular season champion LSU Tigers in the first quarterfinals game.

The first half of the Mississippi game was nothing to write home to mother about, and the Cats trailed at the half by 2 points. However, the way the Cats played the second half triggered memories of earlier, happier times during this season; those times that preceded the loss to this very same Ole Miss team at the end of January. In the first half, the Cats scored 36 points on 43 possessions, for an offensive efficiency of 0.836 ppp and at the defensive end, the Cats allowed 38 points in 36 possessions, 1.056 ppp. Not the kind of game that anyone would want to see from the Cats, but completely consistent with the team's poor play of the last 11 games.

The second half was substantially different. The Cats scored 35 points on 35 possessions, 1.000 ppp while the Cats' defensive limited Mississippi to only 20 points on 36 possessions, 0.556 ppp. That is the level of performance that will win against any opponent that the SEC can provide.

LSU enters this game with a record of 25-6, 13-3 in the SEC. LSU has averaged 82.7 possessions per game while allowing opponents 80.9 possessions. LSU has averaged 75.7 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.916 ppp. On the defensive end, LSU has allowed 65.7 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.812 ppp. LSU averages about 12.3 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 13.4 turnovers per game. On the glass, LSU secures about 37.4% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 30.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 20-12, 9-8 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 83.0 possessions per game and their opponents average 83.7 possessions. The Cats average about 75.3 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.791 ppp. The Cats average 17.5 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.6% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

The Cats open the game with 4 turnovers in their first 7 possessions and LSU hit 5 of their first 8 shots to rush out to an early 8 point lead, 13-5, prompting a very early Kentucky timeout with about 15:30 to play. The teams traded baskets after the timeout, and LSU maintained their 8 point lead, 15-7, at the under 16 TV timeout and 14:45 to play in the first half. In the second segment, the Cats outscored the Tigers 7-0 to cut the LSU lead from 8 points to 1 point at the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace is about 80 possessions, and despite 6 turnovers on their first 16 possessions, the Cats have clawed their way back into the game.

In the third segment, LSU made back to back three pointers to run back up by 7 points, 21-14; however, an old fashioned three point play by Patterson on an offensive rebound cut the lead back to 4 points, 21-17, at the under 8 TV timeout. Through the first 12 minutes of the game, LSU is winning the offensive boards and turnover battles, and the Cats have shot the ball with a higher percentage. In a prolonged fourth game segment, the Cats remained within striking distance, down only 3 points, 26-23 at the under 4 TV timeout with 1:48 left in the first half. The Cats' defense has held LSU to under 30% shooting, but the LSU 14-5 advantage on the offensive glass, coupled with the LSU advantage, 8-3 on turnovers, has given the Tigers 14 more shots at the basket, a 10-7 advantage on second chance points and that is the difference in this game. LSU scored the only basket over the last 1:48 and took a 5 point lead, 28-23 to the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 64 possessions for the Cats and 84 for LSU. Kentucky had 27 first chance and 5 second chances while LSU had 28 first chances and 14 second chance possessions. LSU ended the half with a 22-17 advantage for total rebounds, and LSU won the battle of the offense glass 14-5. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 7 points, and LSU used its second chance possessions for 10 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 38.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed LSU to grab a powerful 53.8% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed 9 turnovers, and LSU committed 4 turnovers.

LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.643 ppp on its 28 first half possessions and 0.714 ppp for its 14 second chance possession. UK had 0.593 ppp on its 27 first half possessions and 1.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

The Cats made only 3-5 [60.0%]. LSU made 3-4 [75.0]. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 9-21 [42.9%] for the half overall. The Cats made only 2-6 [33.3%] from long range . For LSU, their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very poor 3-11 [27.3%], and LSU shot the ball very poorly from inside the arc, hitting 8-25 [32.0%]. The story of the first half has been LSU's rebounding and Kentucky's turnovers.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 54 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 31 points and LSU needs 26 points. LSU scored their 54 th point on a three pointer with 6:42 to play an LSU leading 55-44. The teams played out the final 6:42 with LSU securing the victory and sending the Cats back to Lexington to ponder its future.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats scored the first 3 points of the half to cut the half time lead to 2 points. But, another second chance basket stopped the Cats at 2 points down, and the teams traded baskets for the remainder of the opening segment of the second half and lead by 4 points, 33-37 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, LSU extended their lead to 6 points briefly, 39-33, but a Galloway dunk closed back to within 4 points, prompting a LSU timeout with 13:24 to play in the game. The Cats continue to turnover the ball on more than 25% of their possessions. After trimming the lead back to 3 points, a LSU basket reestablished the 5 point halftime lead, 41-36 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, Patterson missed another close in shot, and LSU then scored, stole the in bounds pass, and made a 3 pointer following an offensive rebound to extend their lead to a game high 10 points, 46-36, prompting another Kentucky timeout with 10:42 to play in the game. After the timeout, the Cats trim the lead back to a more manageable 6 points at the under 8 TV timeout, 48-42, but LSU will be shooting a pair of free throws when play resumes, following yet another offensive rebound and second chance possession.

Through 32 minutes of play, LSU has a 17-5 advantage on the offensive glass, a 15-7 advantage on second chance points, which can soon be expanded to a full 10 point advantage, and a 13-8 advantage on turnovers. This has given LSU 56 scoring opportunities to the Cats' 38 scoring chances. Not a good recipe for victory. The Cats could get no closer the rest of the way, as LSU ran out to a 58-44 lead on several three pointers and Kentucky misses. The final score is 67-58.

UK scored its 58 points in a total of 70 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.829 ppp. LSU scored its 67 points on a total of 81 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.827 ppp.

LSU won the total rebounding battle, 37-32 and LSU won on the offensive glass 17-8. Kentucky converted their 8-second chance into 10 points while LSU converted its 17-second chances into 13 points.

LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.844 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.765 ppp for its 17-second chance possessions. UK had 0.774 ppp on its 60 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed very poor 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to grab very strong 41.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.7 possessions and forced LSU into one turnover in every 6.8 possessions.

The Cats shot poorly from the line, hitting 14-21 [66.7%]. LSU made 11-16 from the line [68.8%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a fair 20-45 overall [44.4%] including a very poor 4-13 from long range [30.8%]. For LSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 16-40 [40.0%] and LSU shot very well from long range, 8-21 [38.1%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 2 point Kentucky win [72-70], and the outcome was sadly different, a 9 point LSU win, 67-58. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.878 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.829 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.843 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.827 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “D+” and the defensive “grade” is “C” as shown below.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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