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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

35
Cats Open SEC Tournament Against Mississippi

35

Cats Open SEC Tournament Against Mississippi

Way back in January, the Cats took their 16-4, 5-0 record to Oxford, Mississippi, and the entire big blue nation expected the Cats to continue their fine play and leave Oxford 17-4, 6-0 including a precious 4 th SEC road win. However, that is not what happened on that icy January night, and the Cats have not been quite the same since. The Cats lost to Ole Miss, and that would be the first of three consecutive losses. However, that three game skid was not the end of Kentucky's season ending woes as the Cats only won 3 of their last 11 games, starting with that fateful Ole Miss loss.

The regular season ended in Gainesville, Florida last Saturday with that 8 th SEC loss and the Cats with a 19-12, 8-8 record. No one has offered a verifiable explanation for the collapse of the 2008-09 Kentucky basketball team, but the collapse has been undeniable. As a consequence, controversy now swirls around the program, and the future status of head coach Gillispie. Many fans and boosters have concluded that Coach Gillispie will not be able to restore the program to the elite status that the fan base wants, and there appears to be attempts to find a new coach at the end of this season.

When the SEC Tournament begins on Thursday afternoon, Kentucky will seek some measure of revenge against the Ole Miss team that started the Cats' spiral into a collapse. The question is whether this Kentucky team is willing, ready or able to given a winning effort to enact that revenge. Ole Miss has not had great success against Kentucky over the years, and have only won 12 times in 107 games. In SEC Tournament play, Ole Miss has never beaten Kentucky. Will the Cats play this game in a manner that is consistent with the historical domination, or will the Cats fail to make a significant appearance against Mississippi in the manner in which the Cats played their final 11 games.

MISSISSIPPI enters this game with a record of 16-14, 7-9 in the SEC. MISSISSIPPI has averaged 82.6 possessions per game while allowing opponents 82.1 possessions. MISSISSIPPI has averaged 73.2 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.886 ppp. On the defensive end, MISSISSIPPI has allowed 72.3 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.881 ppp. MISSISSIPPI averages about 13.0 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 12.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, MISSISSIPPI secures about 35.9% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 34.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 19-12, 8-8 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 83.1 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.0 possessions. The Cats average about 75.4 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.908 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.791 ppp. The Cats average 17.7 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.8 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.8% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

The Cats open with poor shooting but strong offensive rebounding to ease out to an early 2 point lead at the under 16 TV timeout. Meeks scores 5 of the Cats' first 9 points. However, Mississippi is hanging close with 3 for 5 shooting including a second chance three point basket. In the second segment, the Cats extended their early lead to 14-11 on an old fashioned 3 point play by Meeks, his second of the game, but the Rebels then scored the next 6 points of the game to take a 3 point lead of their own, 17-14 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:34 to play in the first half. In the third segment, the Cats eased back into the lead with 4 straight points of their own, but that lead was short lived as Ole Miss went back up by 3 points, 23-20 at the under 8 TV timeout an the Rebels will have one free throw to complete the 3 point play when play resumes.

Ole Miss missed their free throw, and the Cats then scored 8 straight points to move back into the lead by 5 points, 28-23 prompting a Mississippi timeout. The Rebels responded to their coach's call and scored the next 8 points to reestablish their 3 point lead at 31-28 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:50 to play in the first half. Through the first 17 minutes of play, the Cats have won the battle of the boards, but Mississippi's 50% shooting and 3 three pointers has been the difference in this game. Each team has committed 5 turnovers in the first half. When play resumed, the Cats ran off another 6 point run, to go back up by 3 points, 34-31, but Ole Miss made their 4 th three pointer in 9 tries to tie the game at 36-36 with about 40 seconds to play. The Cats missed a three pointer, Ole Miss made a basket with 0.8 seconds to play, and Porter missed the front end of the 1+1 to allow Ole Miss to take a 2 point lead, 38-36 to the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 86 possessions for the Cats and 72 for MISSISSIPPI. Kentucky had 33 first chance and 10 second chances while MISSISSIPPI had 32 first chances and 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 19-15 advantage for total rebounds, and Kentucky won the battle of the offense glass 10-4. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 8 points, and MISSISSIPPI used its second chance possessions for 7 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 47.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed MISSISSIPPI to grab a 30.8% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an 5 turnovers, and MISSISSIPPI committed 7 turnovers.

MISSISSIPPI had an offensive efficiency of 0.969 ppp on its 32 first half possessions and 1.750 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.848 ppp on its 33 first half possessions and 0.800 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

Both teams shot well at the free throw in the first half. The Cats made 8-9 [88.9%] with their only miss being Porter's front end miss at the close of the half, an opportunity to send the teams to the locker room tied. Mississippi made 6-7 [85.7]. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 14-34 [41.2%] for the half overall. The Cats made a goose egg from long range on 6 attempts [0.00%]. For MISSISSIPPI their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very strong 4-9 [44.4%], and MISSISSIPPI shot the ball very well from inside the arc, hitting 10-17 [58.8%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 76 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 40 points and MISSISSIPPI needs 38 points. Neither team reached the magic number in this game today, and the Cats won the game, 71-58 for their 20 th win of the season, and to advance to the SEC Quarterfinal round tomorrow when they will take on SEC regular season champion LSU at 1 pm.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins with two misses by Ole Miss from outside the arc, a put back basket by Patterson, and one of two free throws by Stevenson to regain the lead, 39-39 in the first minute. When Patterson drains a 17 foot jump shot from the key, Ole Miss calls a timeout with 17:51 to play and the Cats back on top by 3 points, 41-38. After the timeout, the teams traded baskets as the Cats maintained the 3 point lead at the under 16 TV timeout, 43-40. After the timeout, Stevenson made both free throws to extend the Cats' lead back to their largest of the game, 5 points, 45-40.

Then Mississippi's 11 th turnover resulted in a Meeks run out basket to give the Cats their largest lead, 7 points, 47-40 prompting another Mississippi time out with over 15 minutes to play. Meeks stole the inbounds pass for another run out basket and a 9 point lead before Ole Miss stopped the Kentucky run with back to back baskets of their own to cut the lead back to 5 points, 49-44. However, the Cats continued to surge, and extended their lead to a game high 11 points, 56-45 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, back to back Kentucky turnovers allowed Mississippi to trim the lead back into single digits. After Meeks makes one of two free throws, another basket by Mississippi cuts the Kentucky lead down to only 8 points with 9:58, 57-49. Patterson hit only one of two of his free throws to take the lead back up to 9 points, 58-49 at the under 8 TV timeout. When play resume Ole Miss made a pair of free throws to trim the lead back to 7 points. However, the Cats responded to the call in this game, and ran their lead out to a game high 16 points, 69-53 before Ole Miss stopped the run with a three pointer with only 2:31 to play in the game. The final score, 71-58.

UK scored its 71 points in a total of 78 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.910 ppp. MISSISSIPPI scored its 58 points on a total of 72 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.806 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 35-28 and Kentucky won on the offensive glass 13-7. Kentucky converted their 13-second chance into 14 points while MISSISSIPPI converted its 7-second chances into 7 points.

MISSISSIPPI had an offensive efficiency of 0.785 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 7-second chance possessions. UK had 0.877 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.077 ppp on its 13-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed above their season average 38.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI was able to grab a weak 24.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 7.8 possessions and forced MISSISSIPPI into one turnover in every 4.0 possessions.

The Cats shot very well from the line, hitting 14-18 [77.8%]. MISSISSIPPI made 11-14 from the line [78.6%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a good 28-60 overall [46.7%] including a very poor 1-10 from long range [10.0%]. For MISSISSIPPI, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 16-31 [51.6%] and MISSISSIPPI shot poorly from long range, 5-17 [29.4%] and only 1-8 in the second half after burning the nets 4-9 for outside in the first half..

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 7 point Kentucky win [75-68], and the outcome was slightly different, 13 point win, 61-58. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.904 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.910 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.819 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.806 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “C” and the defensive “grade” is “C” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/32_Grades_SECTMISS@.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

The Cats win and advance to the quarterfinal round of the SEC Tournament against the #1 seed of this tournament, LSU, at 1 pm on Friday, March 13, 2009.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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