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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

34
Cats Finish Season At Florida

For only the 6 th time in UK Basketball history, the Cats lost their last home game of the season on Senior Night. Yes, the Cats recognized their sole Senior, Jared Carter, and yes, Coach Gillispie honored the program's long tradition by giving Jared Carter his first and only start as a Kentucky Wildcat. That is the extent of positives that can be reported about that game as the Cats continued their listless play and allowed the weakest team in the SEC to put up 90 big points on the board, and while the 85 Cat points should always be sufficient to win, especially at home, a win on this senior night was not to be.

Now, the Cats can bring this regular season to a merciful end on Saturday afternoon in Gainesville, Florida. Saturday will be Senior Day for the Gators.

FLORIDA enters this game with a record of 21-9, 8-7in the SEC. FLORIDA has averaged 81.0 possessions per game while allowing opponents 80.5 possessions. FLORIDA has averaged 78.8 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.972 ppp. On the defensive end, FLORIDA has allowed 68.7 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.854 ppp. FLORIDA averages about 12.0 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 15.2 turnovers per game. On the glass, FLORIDA secures about 32.6% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 32.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 19-11, 8-7 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 83.2 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.3 possessions. The Cats average about 76.2 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.916 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66.7 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.791ppp. The Cats average 17.5 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.8 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.8% of their misses.

First Half Summary

Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

Florida opens the game by making their first three 3 pointers, while the Cats make 3 of their first 6 shots and fall behind early by 6 points, 11-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace is very slow, in the 70s range. The second segment was not any better for the Cats, as the Gators streaked out to a 10 point lead, 18-8, before the Cats finally scored again to cut the lead to 8 points, 18-10, at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats held Florida scoreless, but 1-7 shooting and 3 more turnovers by the Cats, and they could only trim 2 points off the lead, to 6 points, 18-12, at the under 8 TV timeout. After the timeout, the Cats cut the lead to 4 points, 18-14, but Florida then ran 5 straight of their own to push the lead back to 9 points, 23-14, prompting a Kentucky timeout with 5:22 to play in the first half.

In the first half, the Cats are shooting under 32%, and have 8 turnovers. However, the Cats have been going to the boards hard, with 9 offensive rebounds and 8 second chance points as compared to 7 offensive rebounds and no second chance points for Florida. The teams finished the first half with the Gators leading by 7 points, 29-22.

The pace of the first half was 80 possessions for the Cats and 72 for FLORIDA. Kentucky had 30 first chance and 10 second chances while FLORIDA had 27 first chance and 9 second chance possessions. Kentucky ended the half with a 20-16 advantage for total rebounds, and Kentucky won the battle of the offense glass 10-9. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 10 points, and FLORIDA used its second chance possessions for 6 second chance points. The Cats grabbed their season average 35.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed FLORIDA to grab a 31.8% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an 10 turnovers, and FLORIDA committed 7 turnovers.

FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp on its 27 first half possessions and 0.857 ppp for its 7 second chance possession. UK had 0.400 ppp on its 30 first half possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

Neither team shot a free throw in the first half that only saw two fouls called on each team. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 11-30 [36.7%] for the half overall. The Cats made a goose egg from long range on 4 attempts [0.00%]. For FLORIDA their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very strong 5-10 [50.0%], and FLORIDA shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 7-19 [36.8%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 55 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 33 points and FLORIDA needs 26 points. FLORIDA scored its 55 th point on a lay up with 3:40 to play in the game and FLORIDA leading 56-48. FLORIDA played out the final 3:40 to secure the win, 60-53 and the third seed from the SEC East and to end Kentucky's season with 4 straight losses, and 8 losses in their last 11 games after starting 16-4, 5-0. The Cats final record is 19-12, 8-8.

Second Half Summary:

Both teams open the second half with cold shooting, the Cats 1-5 and the Gators 1-7, but near the end of the opening segment, the Gators put together a run to take their biggest lead of the day, 11 points, 36-25 at the under 16 TV timeout with 14:58 to play in the game, and the Gators will have one free throw when play resumes.

Out of the time out, the Gators made the first free throw of the game to extend their lead to 12 points, but the Cats scored 5 straight of their own to cut the lead back to 7 points, 37-30, prompting a quick Florida timeout with 14:37 to play in the game. After the timeout, the Gators wasted no time in running back out to an 12 point lead, 42-30, but the Cats trimmed it back to 43-35, 8 points, at the under 12 TV timeout with Meeks to shoot one free throw when play resumes.

In the third segment, the Cats essentially played even with the Gators, managing to play 7 to 10 points down throughout the segment, and ending the segment down 7, 47-40 at the under 8 TV timeout.

The Gators an Cats continue to simply trade baskets and the Gators hold an 8 point lead at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:20 to play in the game. The Cats did cut the lead briefly to 5 points on one occasion, but the Gators answered, and finished the job 60-53.

UK scored its 53 points in a total of 80 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.663 ppp. FLORIDA scored its 60 points on a total of 74 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.811 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 39-28 and FLORIDA won on the offensive glass 15-11. Kentucky converted their 15-second chance into 12 points while FLORIDA converted its 11-second chances into 9 points.

FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.810 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.818 ppp for its 11-second chance possessions. UK had 0.631 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp on its 15-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed above their season average 46.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to grab a weak 31.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 3.5 possessions and forced FLORIDA into one turnover in every 5.3 possessions.

The Cats shot very poorly from the line, hitting 5-10 [50.0%]. FLORIDA made 10-13 from the line [76.9%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a weak 23-53 overall [43.4%] including a very poor 2-11 from long range [18.2%]. For FLORIDA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 13-33 [39.4%] and FLORIDA shot well from long range, 8-21[38.1%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 5 point Florida win [75-70], and the outcome was slightly different, a loss to FLORIDA by 7 points, 60-53. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.854 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.663 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.904 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.811 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “E” and the defensive “grade” is “B-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/31_Grades_@FLA.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Today's game concludes the 2008-09 regular season for the Cats with a record of 19-12, 8-8 in the SEC. The Cats will play on Thursday afternoon in the first game of the SEC Saturday afternoon, March 7, 2009, the Cats will finish their regular season against the Tournament in Tampa against Mississippi.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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