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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

33
Cats Finish Home Season Against Georgia

Senior night is a time when Kentucky fans pay tribute and say good bye to their beloved departing seniors. Tradition surrounding Kentucky's senior night is full and rich including the special pre-game ceremonies with family present to allow the Rupp Arena faithful to show their appreciation to the young men, the singing or playing of “My Old Kentucky Home” and the traditional start for each senior, regardless of their previous starting or non-starting status.

Tonight's senior night will highlight some of the real player personnel issues that this team has, specifically only one senior, and more particularly, that senior has had virtually no playing time in his four years as a member of the UK team. The senior night may also mark a break in UK's long standing tradition to start seniors on this special occasion, even if that senior has not been a major contributor on the floor, and even if that senior's playing time in this special game is limited to a cameo appearance at the start that lasts until the first stoppage of play.

However, based on Coach Gillispie's comments in direct response to a fan question about whether Jared Carter, this year's lone senior, would get to start the game against Georgia, Coach said that it was not HIS tradition, and that he did not believe in starting someone who had not earned that honor. So much for Coach Gillispie's understanding of Kentucky traditions.. If Carter does not get to start, it will be the first UK senior so slighted by a coach in my memory, and if Carter does get to start this game, it will indicate that someone has educated this coach about Kentucky traditions since his Monday evening call in radio show.

Given that this season has gone into the tank over the last 9 games, it seems appropriate to focus on these side issues at a time like this rather than focus on the importance of this team making a substantive course correction and finishing the 2008-09 season on a much stronger note than the last 9 games indicate is possible.

As the SEC enters its final week of competition for the 2009 season, LSU secured the regular season championship and the #1 seed in the West by beating Kentucky last Saturday at Rupp. Meanwhile, Auburn secured the number #2 seed in the West with its victory last night over Alabama. The East is not so clear except that Vanderbilt seems secure in the #5 spot in the east, Georgia is a lock to finish #6 in the East. South Carolina and Tennessee are tied at the top of the East with 9-5 records, and they play each other on Thursday night for the East #1 seed. Kentucky is currently tied with Florida with 8-6 records for 3 rd and 4 th in the East, and they play each other on Saturday.

The possibilities for these top 4 spots are varied. If USC beats Tennessee, and Kentucky beats Florida, then the Cats would secure the #2 seed in the East by virtue of their sweep of Tennessee this season. If USC beats Tennessee, and Florida beats Kentucky, then Tennessee will secure the #2 spot by virtue of their sweep of the Gators, and the Cats would end up in the #4 seed position from the East. If Tennessee beats USC and Kentucky beats Florida, then USC would get the #2 by virtue of their sweep of the Cats, and if Tennessee and Florida are the winners, I am not sure who gets the #2 seed, but it won't be the Cats. Florida also plays at Mississippi State tonight, no easy victory for the Gators, Tennessee finishes at home against Alabama, a relatively certain Vol win, and USC finishes at Georgia, also a relatively certain USC win.

GEORGIA enters this game with a record of 11-18, 2-12 in the SEC. GEORGIA'S two SEC wins came at the expense of Florida and Vanderbilt. GEORGIA has averaged 83.3 possessions per game while allowing opponents 84.0 possessions. GEORGIA has averaged 64.7 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.776 ppp. On the defensive end, GEORGIA has allowed 69.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.823 ppp. GEORGIA averages about 17.3 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 14.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, GEORGIA secures about 33.4% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 33.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 19-10, 8-6 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 83.0 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.2 possessions. The Cats average about 75.9 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.914 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.9 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.783 ppp. The Cats average 17.7 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.7 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.5% of their misses.

First Half Summary

In the second half against LSU on Saturday, Coach Gillispie replaced Porter and Stevenson with Miller and Galloway to start the second half. Was this a sign that Coach Did that decision indicate Coach Gillispie has decided to change the starting lineup? If he did not make the change because he has decided to make that change, then certainly the team's response to their opportunity, by transforming an 8 point halftime deficit into a 10 point lead in about 9 minutes should persuade Coach in a powerful way.

So, the starting line up tonight carries two huge questions. Will Coach Gillispie remain tone deaf to the traditions of UK basketball and not start Carter? Will Coach Gillispie remain tone deaf to the collective wisdom of the Big Blue Nation and continue to start and play Porter, Harris, and Stevenson. While there is not specific consensus among fans as to who should start, there is widespread agreement that Porter and Harris should not start and should not get double digit minutes in a game. The answers are No and Yes fo the two questions as Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Carter, and Patterson.

After trading early baskets, the Cats got their first lead on a Harris 3 pointer, 7-4, but Georgia then ran off 8 straight points to take a 5 point lead, 12-7, prompting a quick timeout by Kentucky with 16:11 to play in the first half. After the timeout, Meeks made an old fashioned three point play to trim the lead back to 2 points, but Georgia converted at the other end to extend their lead back to 4 points, 14-10, at the under 16 TV timeout. In the early going, the pace is about 80 possessions for both teams. The Cats regained the lead on a pair of Porter 3 pointers, a Miller 3 pointer, and a pair of Patterson free throws, 21-14 with an 11 point run of their own when the under 12 TV timeout was called. Georgia will have possession when play resumes.

Out of the timeout, the Cats continued their run with a pair of Harrellson free throws to extend the run to 13 points before Georgia scored their next basket. Georgia trimmed the 9 point lead back to only 4 points by the under 8 TV timeout and Georgia will be shooting free throws when play resumes, 27-23. After the timeout, Georgia continued a run of its own, as the Dawgs sprint back out to a 4 point lead, 33-29 prompting a second Kentucky timeout with 5:07 to play in the first half. A pair of Miller free throws halts the Georgia run at 8 points. The Cats claw back into a tie, 33-33 at the under 4 TV timeout and 3:31 to play in the half. When play resumes, Harris will be at the line for the one and bonus opportunity.

Harris made both to give the Cats a 2 point lead, 35-33, but that lead was brief, as Georgia scored 4 straight to regain the lead, and extend that lead back to 4 points, 42-38, prompting a 3 rd Kentucky timeout in the first half with 2:18 to play in the half. Georgia extended their lead to a game high 7 points, 47-40, but the Cats roared back in the last minute to take a 2 point lead, 49-47, to the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 88 possessions and the Cats and 86 for GEORGIA. Kentucky had 39 first chance and 5 second chances while GEORGIA had 38 first chance and 5 second chance possessions. GEORGIA ended the half with a 16-14 advantage for total rebounds, and GEORGIA and Kentucky battled on even terms on the offensive glass, 5-5. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 6 points, and GEORGIA used its second chance possessions for 3 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a low 31.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed GEORGIA to grab a strong 35.7% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an only 5 turnovers, but all five occurred in the last 7 minutes of the half. GEORGIA committed 10 turnovers.

GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 1.158 ppp on its 38 first half possessions and 0.600 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 1.103 ppp on its 39 first half possessions and 1.200 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were perfect, 15-15 [100.0%], and GEORGIA was nearly perfect, 12-13 [92.3%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 14-32 [43.8%] for the half overall. The Cats made a strong 6-11 [54.5%] from outside the arc. For GEORGIA their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very strong 7-9 [77.8%], and GEORGIA shot the ball poorly from inside the arc, hitting 7-18 [38.9%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 98 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 49points and GEORGIA needs 51 points. GEORGIA scored its 69 th point on a three pointer with 1:15 to play in the game and GEORGIA leading 69-66. GEORGIA played out the final 75 seconds to secure the outright regular season SEC championship 73-70.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats start the second half much the way they have started many halves this season, with 5 turnovers in their first 11 trips, and only 2-6 shooting, as Georgia sprinted out to an 8 point lead, 61-53 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the next segment, the Cats show some signs of life again, and outscore the Dawgs 9-2 to cut the lead to 1 point prompting a Georgia timeout with 13:56 to play in the game. After the timeout, Georgia scored to stop the Kentucky run, and maintain a 3 point lead at the under 12 TV timeout, 65-62.

The Cats could get no closer than the 3 point margin in the next segment, as Georgia ran back out to their biggest lead of the night, 8 point, 72-64, forcing yet another Kentucky timeout with 8:19 to play in the game. However, out of the timeout, the Cats could not score, and Georgia established its first double digit lead of the game, 10 points, 74-64 at the under 8 TV timeout with 6:40 to play in the game. The Dawgs and Cats exchange baskets and then the Cats close to within 6 points, and had two opportunities to cut the lead down to 4 or less, but failed both times with a missed shot and a turnover. Georgia continues to lead by 6 points, 78-72 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:50 to play in the game. When play resumes, Georgia will be shooting the one and bonus.

After Georgia made both free throws, the Cats cut the lead to 5 points on a Porter 3 pointer, and then to 3 points on a Meeks 3 pointer with about 1 ½ minutes to play, 83-80. However, the Cats could get no closer than 3 points again, and fall to Georgia on Senior night for only the 6 th senior night loss in UK history, 90-85.

UK scored its 85 points in a total of 86 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.988 ppp. GEORGIA scored its 90 points on a total of 88 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.023 ppp.

Georgia won the total rebounding battle, 38-27 and GEORGIA won on the offensive glass 13-10. Kentucky converted their 10-second chance into 10 points while GEORGIA converted its 13-second chances into 12 points.

GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 1.040 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.923 ppp for its 13-second chance possessions. UK had 0.987 ppp on its 76 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below season average 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to grab a hefty 43.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 6.6 possessions and forced GEORGIA into one turnover in every 4.6 possessions.

The Cats shot very well from the line, hitting 26-28 [92.9%]. GEORGIA made 25-30 from the line [83.3%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a weak 25-60 overall [41.7%] including a strong 9-20 from long range [45.0%]. For GEORGIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 16-38 [42.1%] and GEORGIA shot well from long range, 11-16[68.8%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 22 point Kentucky win [80-58], and the outcome was substantially different, a loss to GEORGIA by 90-85. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.952 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.988 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.690 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 1.023 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “E” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/30_Grades_UGA.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, March 7, 2009, the Cats will finish their regular season against the Florida Gators in Gainesville. The Cats and the Gators will carry a 8-7 conference record into this game, a battle for 3 rd place

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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