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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

32
Cats Implosion At South Carolina
Continues To Reverberate as LSU Comes To Town

The 2008-09 season is rapidly winding down for the University of Kentucky Wildcats, and with only three games remaining, the Cats will face #18 LSU for the first time this season. With USC and Tennessee in the previous two games, and a season ending rematch at Florida, the Cats must face the 4 best teams that the SEC can line up against this group of Cats. The Cats started this closing sequence of championship deciding games with a huge win over Tennessee. Many regarded the Cats' performance in that game as their best of the season, and there is certainly a basis for that opinion. However, this Jeckyl and Hyde team turned around just 3 days later and lost to South Carolina in what many regarded the Cats' performance in that game as their worst of the season, and there is certainly a basis for that opinion as well.

This has been the pattern of this team over the last few games: strong, weak, strong, weak, strong, weak, …

Does this mean that the Cats are destined for a strong performance on Saturday when LSU comes to Rupp? Or was the South Carolina collapse more than just another of the alternating weak games? In the aftermath of the South Carolina beating, Coach Gillispie uncharacteristically called out three of his players in post game comments, and the day after the game, reports surfaced on Channel 27 in Lexington that A. J. Stewart had quit the team. On Friday, Stewart asked for and was granted a chance to return to the team, but these events beg the questions. What is going on inside this team? Has this team decided to mail it in for the remaining games? Has Gillispie lost control of the team?

As fans, the only source of any possible answer to these and similar questions occurs from how the team responds and plays in the games. Saturday, when LSU comes calling, we should get some answers.

About one week ago, four teams were tied for the lead in the SEC East with 7-4 records. Today, only South Carolina is left standing at 8-4, and Kentucky, Tennessee and Florida are now tied for 2 nd place one game behind USC with 8-5 records. All four of these teams have 3 games remaining.

LSU enters this game ranked #18 in the nation, and no less than a share of the SEC regular season title already to its credit. LSU's record is 24-4, 12-1 in the SEC. LSU has averaged 83.2 possessions per game while allowing opponents 81.3 possessions. LSU has averaged 77.0 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.925 ppp. On the defensive end, LSU has allowed 65.1 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.801 ppp. LSU averages about 12.4 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 13.6 turnovers per game. On the glass, LSU secures about 38.5% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 30.4% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 19-9, 8-5 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 83.3 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.5 possessions. The Cats average about 76.1 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.913 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.6 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.777 ppp. The Cats average 17.8 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.8 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.6% of their misses.

First Half Summary

In the immediate aftermath of Wednesday's beat down by South Carolina, Coach Gillispie expressed anger about three players' play, specifically Stevenson, Harrellson, and Stewart. Subsequently, Stewart either quit or was kicked from the team, and then reinstated the next day. This begs the question. Will Stevenson be on the floor when the strip shirt tosses the ball into the air? Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Stevenson, and Patterson.

The Cats opened with baskets on their first 3 possessions, and 4 of their first 5, to take a 5 point lead, 8-3, but LSU responded with an 8 point run that gave them a 3 point lead, 11-8, at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats will have the first possession when play resumes. The early pace in the 80 to 85 range. In the second segment, LSU eased out to their biggest lead, 4 points, at 12-8 before the Cats stopped the run ant 9 points, but LSU managed to maintain that lead to the under 12 TV timeout at 14-10. Patterson will be shooting Kentucky's first free throws of the game when play resumes.

Patterson missed both attempts, and when LSU used 3 offensive rebounds on its first two trips down the floor to extend the lead to 6 points, 16-10, Gillispie called a timeout with 10:29 to play in the half. When LSU proceeds to outscore the Cats 8-2 out of the first timeout, Gillispie called his second timeout, with his Cats trailing 24-12 and about 8:39 to play in the half. Since the Cats led 8-3, they have been outscored 21-4. The Cats scored back to back baskets, and LSU called timeout with 7:50 to play.

Through the first 12 minutes of the game, the Cats have lost the rebounding battle, total and offensive, the second chance points, and the turnover battles, and trail by 8 point, 24-16 at the under 8 TV timeout with 7:11 to play in the first half. The Cats could get no closer than 8 point for the entire 4 th segment of the game, and continue to trail by 11 points, 32-21, at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats did manage to trim the lead back to 8 points at the half, on a Meeks three pointer, 36-28.

The pace of the first half was 76 possessions and the Cats and 76 for LSU. Kentucky had 34 first chance and 4 second chances while LSU had 33 first chance and 5 second chance possessions. LSU ended the half with a 16-15 advantage for total rebounds, and LSU out battled Kentucky on the offensive glass, 5-4. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 4 points, and LSU used its second chance possessions for 7 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a weak 26.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed LSU to grab a only 31.3% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 10 turnovers in the first half, and LSU committed 6 turnovers.

LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.879 ppp on its 33 first half possessions and 1.400 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 0.706 ppp on its 34 first half possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were an uncharacteristic 5-8 [62.5%], and LSU made 3-4 free throws [75.1%]. The Cats shot the ball poorly over the half, making 11-24 [45.8%] for the half overall. The Cats made a poor 1-6 [16.7%] from outside the arc. For LSU their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very strong 5-11 [45.5%], and LSU shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 9-19 [47.4%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 69 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 41points and LSU needs 33 points. LSU scored its 69 th point on a three pointer with 1:15 to play in the game and LSU leading 69-66. LSU played out the final 75 seconds to secure the outright regular season SEC championship 73-70.

Second Half Summary:

Gillispie juggles his starting lineup for the second half, inserting Miller and Galloway for Stevenson and Porter. This combination gets off to a fast start in the second half, cutting the lead to 4 points in the first 2 minutes of play, and cut it to 2 points, 40-38, prompting an LSU timeout with a little more than 16 minutes to play in the game. In this shortened first segment, the Cats scored 10 points on their first 6 possessions, and elevated their game shooting percentage to above 50%. In addition, for the first time today, the Cats' offensive efficiency has exceeded 0.80 points per possession at 0.864 ppp. The first segment finished with no further scoring, Cats down by 2 points, 40-38 at the under 16 TV timeout, and Kentucky will have possession when play resumes.

Meeks ties the game at 40-40 with 15:03 to play in the game. Then Miller hit three pointer with 14:08 to play that gave the Cats their first lead, 43-42, since 8-7 early in the game. After LSU regained the lead at 44-43, the Cats scored 4 more to take a 3 point lead, 47-44, prompting another LSU timeout with 12:45 to play in the game. However, the timeout was not effective for LSU as the Cats continued their run to extend their lead to a game high 10 points, 54-44 at the under 12 TV timeout and 11:05 to play in the game.

Compared to the first half, the first 9 minutes of the second half have been like day and night. The Cats have scored 26 points on only 17 possessions in the second half while holding LSU to only 8 points on 18 possessions. In the third segment, LSU cuts the Cat lead to only 2 points, with a 12-4 run of their own. At the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats are clinging to a 2 points lead, 58-56 with 6:35 to play, and possession belonging to the Cats. In the 4 th segment, LSU twice trimmed the lead to just 1 point, the last at 62-61 at the under 4 TV timeout with only 3:18 to play in the game, Meeks to get 1+1 when play resumes. He missed the front end, and LSU made them pay by retaking the lead by 1 with about 2 minutes to play. After Meeks makes a pair of free throws, LSU retakes the lead, by 2 points, 66-64 on a put back and foul, the three point play the old fashioned way. Coach Gillispie called a timeout with 1:44 to play in the game.

After LSU extended their lead to 3 points, 69-66, they made one of two free throws to lead by 4 points with 35 seconds left. Galloway made the first of two Kentucky free throws, and Patterson got the offensive rebound, allowing Miller to hit a huge 3 pointer to tie the score again at 70-70. However, LSU made a huge 3 pointer at the other end with only 9.7 seconds to play, to take a 3 point lead, 73-70. Kentucky called a timeout to plan for this last shot to tie the score and send this game into overtime. Meeks missed, and LSU closed the deal, 73-70.

UK scored its 70 points in a total of 75 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.933 ppp. LSU scored its 73 points on a total of 75 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.973 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 32-29 but LSU won on the offensive glass 9-8. Kentucky converted their 8-second chance into 9 points while LSU converted its 9-second chances into 15 points.

LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.879 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.667 ppp for its 9-second chance possessions. UK had 0.910 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp on its 8-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below season average 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to get only 27.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.0 possessions and forced LSU into one turnover in every 6.8 possessions.

For the fourth game in the last five outings, the Cats shot an uncharacteristically poor free throw percentage, 11-16 [68.8%]. LSU made 8-10 from the line [80.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a strong 28-52 overall [53.8%] including a only 3-14 from long range [21.4%]. For LSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 19-40 [47.5%] and LSU shot well from long range, 9-20[45.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 8 point Kentucky win [75-67], and the outcome was different, a loss to LSU by 73-70. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.915 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.933 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.798 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.973 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “C” and the defensive “grade” is “D-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/29_Grades_LSU.jpg[/img]

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Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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