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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

31
Cats Travel To South Carolina
Seek Payback and Control of SEC East

When South Carolina visited Rupp earlier this month, the Cats failed to protect a 10 point second half lead, and allowed the Gamecocks to escape Rupp with a 1 point win on a last second shot. It was not the first game that the Cats lost in that manner this season, and it was not the first or last game that USC has won in that manner this season. Tonight, the Cats travel to Columbia, South Carolina seeking a measure of payback. If the Cats can pull off another SEC road win at South Carolina, they will also propel themselves back into the driver's seat in the SEC East with three regular season games remaining.

Yes, in that first game, USC hit about 35% of their three point attempts, and yes, USC's quicker guards repeatedly beat the UK guards off the dribble. However, that is not why the Cats failed to tuck that game safely into the W column. There are two reason the Cats lost that game, turnover and offensive rebounding differentials. As a result of these two statistical categories, the Gamecocks had 83 scoring opportunities, and used them to score 78 points, while Kentucky got only 62 scoring opportunities, and scored 77 points. No team can give any D1 opponent 21 more scoring chances in a game, and expect to win.

These two issues have been the major deficiencies for the 2008-09 UK basketball team, and on that fateful night at Rupp Arena, both reared its head at the same time. If this were the only time this has occurred this season, it would be much less alarming. However, the Cats' turnover rate is the highest for any UK team since turnover stats have been maintained for public viewing, and offensive rebounding that has allowed too many opponents to get 2 to 3 times the second chance points that the Cats are able to manage.

Less than one week ago, four teams were tied for the lead in the SEC East with 7-4 records. Today, two are left standing at 8-4, and Tennessee and Florida have both dropped back one game with 5 losses each [Florida 8-5 and Tennessee 7-5]. That leaves Kentucky and South Carolina at the top of the heap with 4 losses each in SEC play. Tonight, only one of these teams will walk off the court with only 4 losses, and that team will be in complete control of its own SEC East destiny.

South Carolina enters this game with a record of 19-6, 8-4 in the SEC. SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 89.3 possessions per game while allowing opponents 88.5 possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA has averaged 79.8 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.894 ppp. On the defensive end, SOUTH CAROLINA has allowed 70.6 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.798 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA averages about 14.1 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 19.7 turnovers per game. On the glass, SOUTH CAROLINA secures about 35.4% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab 36.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats currently stand at 19-8, 8-4 in the SEC. The Cats now average about 83.1 possessions per game and their opponents average 84.6 possessions. The Cats average about 76.7 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.923 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.2 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.771 ppp. The Cats average 17.7 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 14.9 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 31.5% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

Against Tennessee, Coach Gilllispie returned to his customary starting line up with Patterson's return from his ankle injury. Gillispie stays with his usual starting line up: Porter, Meeks, Harris, Stevenson, and Patterson.

The Cats open the game with turnovers on their first two possessions as USC moved out to an early 4-0 lead before the Cats scored. USC maintained that early lead, actually extending it to 6 points on back to back three pointers at 12-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the opening segment, the Cats have turned the ball over 3 times of their first 7 possessions while USC has no turnovers. Neither team has gotten an offensive rebound, but there have only been 4 missed shots in the entire segment. In the second segment, the Cats only committed 1 more turnover, but USC extended its lead to 8 points, 20-12 on a basket following 4 offensive rebounds on a single trip, and a three pointer. Patterson finally stopped the USC run with a basket of his own at the under 12 TV timeout. Patterson will have one free throw when play resumes with the Cats down 20-14 in the early going.

Through about 9 minutes, USC has scored 20 points on 18 possessions, 1.111 ppp while the Cats have 14 points on 16 possessions. Patterson made his free throw, but 3 straight Kentucky turnvovers allowed USC to extend the lead to 9 points, 24-15 with 10 minutes to play in the game. Before the end of the segment, the Cats committed a 4 th turnover of the segment, and their 8 th turnover of the game, falling behind by 9 points, 30-21 at the under 8 TV timeout. USC will be shooting a free throw when play resumes, and will have an opportunity to post its first double digit lead of the game.

The Gamecocks continue their offensive onslaught at after another three pointer extended the lead to 14 points, 37-23, Coach Gillispie called a timeout with 5:55 to play in the first half. Through 14 minutes, USC has scored 37 points on just 33 possessions. However, the timeout did no good, and USC continued its complete domination of the Cats and lead by 18 points, 42-24 at the under 4 TV timeout. Through the first 16 minutes, USC has scored 42 points on just 38 possessions, while the Cats have manage only 24 points on 35 possessions. Turnovers: 12-4 USC; Offensive Rebounds 7-5 USC; Second Chance points 4-4.

In the final segment, the teams played on even terms, and USC takes a huge 18 point, 46-28 lead to the locker room at the half.

The pace of the first half was 86 possessions and the Cats and 92 for SOUTH CAROLINA. Kentucky had 36 first chance and 7 second chances while SOUTH CAROLINA had 37 first chance and 9 second chance possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA ended the half with a 19-17 advantage for total rebounds, and SOUTH CAROLINA out battled Kentucky on the offensive glass, 9-7. The Cats were able to convert their second chances into 6 points, and South Carolina used its second chance possessions for 8 second chance points. The Cats grabbed a strong 41.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds, while they allowed SOUTH CAROLINA to grab a very strong 47.4% offensive rebounding rate. The Cats committed an unacceptable 14 turnovers in the first half, and SOUTH CAROLINA committed 7 turnovers.

SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 1.027 ppp on its 37 first half possessions and 0.889 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 0.611 ppp on its 36 first half possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were an uncharacteristic 5-8 [62.5%], and SOUTH CAROLINA made 4-7 free throws [57.1%]. The Cats shot the ball very poorly over the half, making 10-25 [40.0%] for the half overall. The Cats made a nice 3-5 [60.0%] from outside the arc. For SOUTH CAROLINA their field goal shooting from outside the arc was a very strong 6-12 [50.0%], and SOUTH CAROLINA shot the ball well from inside the arc, hitting 12-24 [50.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 83 rd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky need 55 points and South Carolina needs 37 points. Neither team reached the halftime magic number, but the outcome of the game was never in doubt as USC delivered a major beat down of the Cats 77-59.

Second Half Summary:

Second half, same as the first, except worse. The Cats turned the ball over the first three possessions, and USC extended their 18 point halftime lead to 24 points before the Cats converted a couple of free throws by Miller. At the under 16 TV timeout, the Cats committed their 4 th turnover of the opening segment, and their 18 th of the game with USC leading by 19 points, 52-33. In the second segment, USC maintained their superior play, their intensity, and a lead that has approached their largest, 24 points, and at the end of the second segment, the Cats trail by 23 points, 64-41. In the third segment, USC extends the lead to 28 points, 71-43, prompting another Kentucky timeout with about 9 minutes to play in the game. In the ensuing two minutes leading to the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats scored on a pair of free throws by Miller to end another USC run, and trim the lead back to “only” 26 points, 71-45. The teams played out the final 7+ minutes and USC send a huge message to the rest of the league with a powerful beat down of the Kentucky Wildcats 77-59.

UK scored its 59 points in a total of 88 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.670 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 77 points on a total of 81 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.951 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 42-36 and the Cats won on the offensive glass 20-12. Kentucky converted their 20-second chance into 14 points while SOUTH CAROLINA converted its 12-second chances into 10 points.

SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.971 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.833 ppp for its 12-second chance possessions. UK had 0.662 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.700 ppp on its 20-second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an above season average 45.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to get 35.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 4.4 possessions and forced SOUTH CAROLINA into one turnover in every 6.8 possessions.

For the third game in the last four outings, the Cats shot an uncharacteristically poor free throw percentage, 15-23 [65.2%]. South Carolina made 13-18 from the line [72.2%]. Field goal shooting for UK was a poor 20-58 overall [34.5%] including a only 4-12 from long range [33.3%]. For SOUTH CAROLINA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 20-40 [50.0%] and SOUTH CAROLINA shot well from long range, 8-20[40.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted an 1 point Kentucky loss [73-74], and the outcome was different, a huge loss to USC by 77-59. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.847 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was 0.670 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.843 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.951 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “E” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance Grades/28_Grades_@USC.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, February 28, 2009, the Cats will host regular season champion LSU at Rupp.. The Cats will carry a 8-5 conference record into this game, which now is a must win if the Cats want to dance in March.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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